The dollar fell against most currencies Tuesday

The dollar fell against most currencies Tuesday, as the prospect of fresh stimulus from the world's largest central banks pushed investors into emerging markets and other higher yielding assets.
The Wall Street Journal Dollar Index, which measures the dollar against a basket of 16 currencies, was recently down 0.1% to 87.05, amid losses against the pound and emerging market currencies.
Investors expect the Bank of England, Bank of Japan and European Central Bank to announce new stimulus measures in the next few months, as they try to kick-start growth and shield their economies from the fallout of a U.K. departure from the European Union.

Canadian dollar broke through the 1.31

The Canadian dollar broke through the 1.31 price level and is aiming to end lower than 1.30 after the U.S. dollar’s appeal as a safe haven has been reduced following the elections results in Japan will trigger further stimulus and the rise of Theresa May as the only candidate for the U.K. Prime Minister position has calmed markets post Brexit.
The Bank of Canada (BoC) will be thankful for a more normal environment when it releases the interest rate statement on Wednesday, July 13 at 10:00 am EDT. The central bank is expected to hold its rates unchanged at 0.50 percent. The focus for CAD traders will be the publication of the quarterly Monetary Policy Report. Since there is little action forecasted from the BoC in the third quarter the governor Stephen Poloz could try to use dovish language to put downward pressure on the loonie in an effort to boost exports.

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USD/CAD gained 0.541

The USD/CAD gained 0.541 percent in the last 24 hours. The pair is trading at 1.3110. The loonie has not recovered from the impact of the massive U.S. jobs report on Friday. The U.S. non farm payrolls (NFP) report added 287,000 in June with a 4.9 percent unemployment rate. The Canadian Labour Force survey also released last Friday shows a drop in unemployment to 6.8 percent even as the economy lost 700 jobs this month. The lower unemployment rate is explained by a drop in the participation rate to a 16 year low of 65.5 percent. The divergent path of employment in both sides of the border plus the softness of energy prices will keep the CAD under pressure.
The big market event for the loonie will come on Wednesday, July 13 at 10:00 am EDT when the Bank of Canada (BoC) releases its rate statement. No changes are expected for the Canadian benchmark interest rate, but the tone of the quarterly monetary policy report and later in the press conference with Governor Stephen Poloz will the main focus. The market is expecting a more dovish tone from the BoC which could be preparing investors for an eventual rate cut in the fall if there are not obvious positive impact from the fiscal stimulus package announced in March from the government.

GBP/USD Chart

Summary :
Target Level : 1.302
Target Period : 2 days
Analysis :
Triangle identified at 11-Jul-04:00 2016 GMT. This pattern is still in the process of forming. Possible bullish price movement towards the resistance 1.302 within the next 2 days.
Supporting Indicators :
Upward sloping Moving Average
Resistance Levels :
( B ) 1.302Last resistance turning point of Triangle.
Support Levels
( A ) 1.2928Last support turning point of Triangle.

 

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EURUSD dropping back to 1.10

While we saw a spike in the dollar following the data, with EURUSD dropping back to 1.10 immediately after the release, and a corresponding sell-off in Gold, this data is unlikely to change the near-term outlook for Fed interest rates. While I wouldn’t write off a hike at the end of the year, assuming the jobs data between now and then is very good and wage growth shows signs of improvement, the risks posed by Brexit in the near-term are likely to deter the Fed from tightening and unnecessarily causing further problems for both the economy and financial markets.
Update – Since the release, both the dollar and Gold have rebounded and now trade close to pre-release levels. Possibly a sign that expectations are relatively unchanged after the June jobs numbers.

rebound in GBP/USD

 Securities advises using the latest rebound in GBP/USD from this week's 31-year low just below $1.28 to initiate or add to short positions. GBP/USD trades at $1.2946. As the implications of the U.K. vote to leave the EU "sink in," TD sees "protracted downside risks for sterling". GBP/USD is expected to drop to $1.20 by the end of the year. However, TD notes: "The risks to our forecast are currently skewed to a further--and faster--decline." The pound faces "substantial downside pressure" as global investros allocate capital away from the U.K., it says, adding the U.K.'s large current account deficit is likely to come to the fore.

The Japanese yen

The Japanese yen is showing little movement on Thursday, as USD/JPY is trading slightly above the 101 line. In the US, employment data will be in focus, with the publication of ADP Nonfarm Employment Change and Unemployment Claims. In Japan, today’s highlight is Current Account. On Friday, we’ll get a look at the all-important Nonfarm Employment Change, with the markets expecting a strong turnaround after the May shocker of just 38 thousand. The estimate stands at 174 thousand.
The Japanese yen has taken full advantage of the Brexit referendum, which saw Britain vote to exit the European Union. The yen has posted strong gains of 3.5 percent since Brexit, as jittery investors have dumped risk assets in favor of the safe-haven Japanese currency. Brexit aftershocks are far from over, as underscored by the woeful British pound, which is struggling at 30-year lows. With risk sentiment decidedly negative, the yen could break below the symbolic 100 level, which last occurred just after the Brexit vote in late June. Although the Bank of Japan has been reluctant to adopt further easing measures, it may have to act in order to curb a streaking yen which is hurting the export sector. Japanese officials have repeatedly warned against what they have termed “currency manipulations” and have threatened to intervene if the yen continues to move higher.

AUD /USD

Summary :
Target Level : 0.7545
Target Period : 3 days
Analysis :
Triangle identified at 06-Jul-12:00 2016 GMT. This pattern is still in the process of forming. Possible bullish price movement towards the resistance 0.754 within the next 3 days.
Supporting Indicators :
Upward sloping Moving Average
Resistance Levels :
( B ) 0.7545Last resistance turning point of Triangle.
Support Levels
( A ) 0.7408Last support turning point of Triangle.

 

technical outlook for the EUR/USD

The euro is nearly unchanged Thursday, bobbing around the 20-day moving average line at 1.1093 -- a long-term chart barrier that could skew the technical outlook for the EUR/USD. The U.S. dollar is trading in mixed fashion ahead of the U.S. non-farm payrolls report due Friday. Against major currencies, the greenback is up slightly, denoting mild risk aversion, but the dollar is weaker against some Asian currencies. The potential for a disappointment in the U.S. jobs report, on the heels of last month's dismal headline number of 38,000, may be pressuring the dollar. It would affirm the belief that the Federal Reserve has little reason to raise interest rates again this year. The EUR/USD is now at 1.1084 from its Wednesday closing of 1.1099, and will display a bearish technical bias if it ends the day below 1.1090, inside the Bollinger downtrend channel and under the 200-day line

The dollar edged up Wednesday

The dollar edged up Wednesday after the release of strong U.S. business data and ahead of the release of minutes from the Federal Reserve's June meeting.
The WSJ Dollar Index, which measures the dollar against 16 other currencies, rose 0.2% to 87.23.
The dollar has benefited from demand for assets seen as safe in the wake of the June 23 U.K. vote to leave the European Union. But analysts say the greenback's rise will be put to the test this week by new economic data and reports.
A stronger-than-expected reading of the The Institute for Supply Management's June nonmanufacturing index Wednesday helped ease concerns about a slowdown in the sector.
Investors are also looking to the release of minutes from the Fed's June 14-15 policy meeting at 2 p.m. EDT for more insight into officials' concerns about a slowdown in the broader economy and about the impacts of the Brexit vote. The Fed kept rates unchanged at the June meeting, and markets are now pricing in little chances of an interest-rate increase this year.
Friday's June U.S. jobs report will also offer a snapshot on the health of the labor market after a disappointing May reading.

EUR/USD is showing little movement

EUR/USD is showing little movement on Wednesday, following losses in the Tuesday session. The pair is trading at 1.1060. On the release front, German Factory Orders disappointed with a flat reading of 0.0%, shy of the estimate of 1.0%. The US will release ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI, with the estimate standing at 53.3 points. The spotlight will be on the central banks, as ECB President Mario Draghi addresses an ECB event in Frankfurt, while the Federal Reserve will release the minutes of its June policy meeting. On Thursday, employment numbers will be in focus, with the release of ADP Nonfarm Employment Change and Unemployment Claims.

Japanese indicators

Japanese indicators were mostly soft last week, underscoring a weak economy. Household Spending and Retail Sales both posted declines, as the Japanese consumer continues to hold tight to her purse strings. Tokyo Core CPI continues to point to deflation, recording a second straight drop of 0.5%. Still, the yen held its own last week, benefiting from its safe-haven status. As well, the Bank of Japan remains reluctant to adopt further easing, so the yen could continue to rise and move towards the symbolic 100 level.

Sterling extends falls

 Sterling extends falls, dropping more than 1.5% against the dollar to a 31-year low of $1.3055, leaving open the potential for a break below the $1.30 level. Technical analysts see little below $1.30 in the way of chart support, with low volume and high volatility leaving the potential for more substantial falls. Commerzbank technical analysts cite a 1992-2016 support line at $1.2972/65. Below that, they say $1.2750 would be the "last defense for the $1.0463 1985 low", although Rabobank cites a 61.8% Fibonacci extension level at $1.2459. EUR/GBP hits a 2.5 year high of 0.8546, just shy of the October 2014 peak of 0.8547; GBP/JPY slides to a three-and-a-half year low of 132.66,

Analysts have warned Brexit

Analysts have warned Brexit could diminish the pound's prestigious status as a reserve currency for central banks and governments. Fiera Capital's Jonathan Lewis the likes of the New Zealand, Canadian and Australian dollars--which have risen in the vote's aftermath--could be the main beneficiaries if sterling does fall out of favor. He notes those countries have strong balance sheets and free markets, which will make them an attractive alternative to sterling. Central banks hold assets denominated in reserve currencies--most often the dollar and euro--that they can use to protect their own foreign-exchange rates

Traders can see the US Dollar Index

Dollar index is a index that follows other currencies and measures the strength of the dollar compared to other currencies. It is a weighted geometric mean of the dollar's value compared only with. If you are trading the forex market you should also be watching the dollar index. Many times the dollar index will move in the opposite direction of the  EUR/USD and the GBP/USD. By watching the chart of the dollar index on a one minute chart, and have your forex chart set at five minutes many time the dollar index will show a move. This happens many times especially if there is a spike in the index. The EUR and GBP will move in the opposite direction.
Euro (EUR), 57.6% weight
Japanese yen (JPY), 13.6% weight
Pound sterling (GBP), 11.9% weight
Canadian dollar (CAD), 9.1% weight
Swedish krona (SEK), 4.2% weight and
Swiss franc (CHF) 3.6% weight.
 

Trade the dollar index

USD/CAD

Summary :
Target Level : 1.2763
Target Period : 3 days
Analysis :
Head and Shoulders identified at 22-Jun-00:00 2016 GMT. This pattern is still in the process of forming. Possible bearish price movement towards the support 1.276 within the next 3 days.
Supporting Indicators :
Downward sloping Moving Average
Resistance Levels :
( B ) 1.2827Last resistance turning point of Head and Shoulders.
Support Levels
( A ) 1.2763Last support turning point of Head and Shoulders.

 

USD/JPY Chart

Summary :
Target Level : 107.1815
Target Period : 3 days
Analysis :
Falling Wedge identified at 15-Jun-04:00 2016 GMT. This pattern is still in the process of forming. Possible bullish price movement towards the resistance 107.182 within the next 3 days.
Supporting Indicators :
RSI below 40
Resistance Levels :
( B ) 107.1815Last resistance turning point of Falling Wedge.
Support Levels
( A ) 105.7385Last support turning point of Falling Wedge.

 

USD/JPY Chart

Summary :
Target Level : 104.6482
Target Period : 3 days
Analysis :
Descending Triangle has broken through the support line at 13-Jun-02:00 2016 GMT. Possible bearish price movement forecast for the next 3 days towards 104.648.
Supporting Indicators :
Downward sloping Moving Average
Resistance Levels :
( A ) 107.173Last resistance turning point of Descending Triangle.

 

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EUR/USD

Summary :
Target Level : 1.1217
Target Period : 2 days
Analysis :
Channel Down identified at 30-May-08:00 2016 GMT. This pattern is still in the process of forming. Possible bullish price movement towards the resistance 1.122 within the next 2 days.
Resistance Levels :
( B ) 1.1217Last resistance turning point of Channel Down.
Support Levels
( A ) 1.1098Last support turning point of Channel Down.

 

EUR/USD

Summary :
Target Level : 1.1188
Target Period : 2 days
Analysis :
Triangle identified at 24-May-02:00 2016 GMT. This pattern is still in the process of forming. Possible bearish price movement towards the support 1.119 within the next 2 days.
Supporting Indicators :
Downward sloping Moving Average
Resistance Levels :
( B ) 1.1231Last resistance turning point of Triangle.
Support Levels
( A ) 1.1188Last support turning point of Triangle.

 

AUD/USD

Summary :
Target Level : 0.7418
Target Period : 3 days
Analysis :
Falling Wedge has broken through the resistance line at 17-May-04:00 2016 GMT. Possible bullish price movement forecast for the next 3 days towards 0.742.
Supporting Indicators :
RSI below 40
Resistance Levels :
( B ) 0.7399Last resistance turning point of Falling Wedge.
Support Levels
( A ) 0.7254Last support turning point of Falling Wedge.

 

USD/JPY

Summary :
Target Level : 107.9961
Target Period : 2 days
Analysis :
Rising Wedge has broken through the support line at 13-May-20:00 2016 GMT. Possible bearish price movement forecast for the next 2 days towards 107.996.
Supporting Indicators :
RSI above 60
Resistance Levels :
( B ) 109.5605Last resistance turning point of Rising Wedge.
Support Levels
( A ) 108.518Last support turning point of Rising Wedge.

 

USD/JPY Chart

Summary : Target Level : 106.4405
Target Period : 2 days
Analysis :
Channel Up identified at 11-May-04:00 2016 GMT. This pattern is still in the process of forming. Possible bearish price movement towards the support 106.44 within the next 2 days.
Supporting Indicators :
RSI above 60
Resistance Levels :
( B ) 109.278Last resistance turning point of Channel Up.
Support Levels
( A ) 106.4405Last support turning point of Channel Up.

 

EUR/GBP Chart

Summary : Target Level : 0.7868
Target Period : 3 days
Analysis :
Triangle identified at 09-May-00:00 2016 GMT. This pattern is still in the process of forming. Possible bearish price movement towards the support 0.787 within the next 3 days.
Resistance Levels :
( B ) 0.7916Last resistance turning point of Triangle.
Support Levels
( A ) 0.7868Last support turning point of Triangle.

 

GBP/JPY Chart

Summary : Target Level : 157.0965
Target Period : 2 days
Analysis :
Pennant has broken through the resistance line at 04-May-00:00 2016 GMT. Possible bullish price movement forecast for the next 2 days towards 157.096.
Resistance Levels :
( B ) 156.073Last resistance turning point of Pennant.
Support Levels
( A ) 154.428Last support turning point of Pennant.

 

GBP/USD Chart

Summary : Target Level : 1.4322
Target Period : 3 days
Analysis :
Channel Up identified at 27-Apr-16:00 2016 GMT. This pattern is still in the process of forming. Possible bearish price movement towards the support 1.432 within the next 3 days.
Resistance Levels :
( B ) 1.4639Last resistance turning point of Channel Up.
Support Levels
( A ) 1.4322Last support turning point of Channel Up.

 

USD/CHF

Summary : Target Level : 0.9585
Target Period : 3 days
Analysis :
Channel Up identified at 25-Apr-04:00 2016 GMT. This pattern is still in the process of forming. Possible bearish price movement towards the support 0.958 within the next 3 days.
Resistance Levels :
( B ) 0.9797Last resistance turning point of Channel Up.
Support Levels
( A ) 0.9585Last support turning point of Channel Up.

 

USD/JPY Forex

Summary : Target Level : 107.841
Target Period : 3 days
Analysis :
Triangle identified at 19-Apr-20:00 2016 GMT. This pattern is still in the process of forming. Possible bearish price movement towards the support 107.841 within the next 3 days.
Resistance Levels :
( B ) 109.4895Last resistance turning point of Triangle.
Support Levels
( A ) 107.841Last support turning point of Triangle.

 

GBP/USD

Summary : Target Level : 1.4091
Target Period : 2 days
Analysis :
Triangle identified at 18-Apr-00:00 2016 GMT. This pattern is still in the process of forming. Possible bearish price movement towards the support 1.409 within the next 2 days.
Supporting Indicators :
Downward sloping Moving Average
Resistance Levels :
( B ) 1.4242Last resistance turning point of Triangle.
Support Levels
( A ) 1.4091Last support turning point of Triangle.

 

GBP/USD

Summary : Target Level : 1.4348
Target Period : 2 days
Analysis :
Inverse Head and Shoulders identified at 12-Apr-23:00 2016 GMT. This pattern is still in the process of forming. Possible bullish price movement towards the resistance 1.435 within the next 2 days.
Supporting Indicators :
Upward sloping Moving Average
Resistance Levels :
( B ) 1.4348Last resistance turning point of Inverse Head and Shoulders.
Support Levels
( A ) 1.4197Last support turning point of Inverse Head and Shoulders.

 

EUR/GBP Chart

Summary : Target Level : 0.7986
Target Period : 2 days
Analysis :
Channel Up identified at 09-Apr-00:00 2016 GMT. This pattern is still in the process of forming. Possible bearish price movement towards the support 0.799 within the next 2 days.
Resistance Levels :
( B ) 0.8105Last resistance turning point of Channel Up.
Support Levels
( A ) 0.7986Last support turning point of Channel Up.

 

USD/CHF

Summary : Target Level : 0.9598
Target Period : 2 days
Analysis :
Falling Wedge identified at 06-Apr-04:00 2016 GMT. This pattern is still in the process of forming. Possible bullish price movement towards the resistance 0.96 within the next 2 days.
Resistance Levels :
( B ) 0.9598Last resistance turning point of Falling Wedge.
Support Levels
( A ) 0.9547Last support turning point of Falling Wedge.

 

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