Wednesday, July 6, 2016

technical outlook for the EUR/USD

The euro is nearly unchanged Thursday, bobbing around the 20-day moving average line at 1.1093 -- a long-term chart barrier that could skew the technical outlook for the EUR/USD. The U.S. dollar is trading in mixed fashion ahead of the U.S. non-farm payrolls report due Friday. Against major currencies, the greenback is up slightly, denoting mild risk aversion, but the dollar is weaker against some Asian currencies. The potential for a disappointment in the U.S. jobs report, on the heels of last month's dismal headline number of 38,000, may be pressuring the dollar. It would affirm the belief that the Federal Reserve has little reason to raise interest rates again this year. The EUR/USD is now at 1.1084 from its Wednesday closing of 1.1099, and will display a bearish technical bias if it ends the day below 1.1090, inside the Bollinger downtrend channel and under the 200-day line