Friday, April 25, 2014

Keystone XL pipeline

 RBC Capital Markets notes that the highly anticipated decision on the Keystone XL pipeline, which would carry Canadian oil to US refineries, has been delayed again, and prospect of an approval by year-end appears slim. Firm says the delays have pushed producers toward alternative solutions, most importantly rail shipments, which have absorbed a surprising amount of capacity. "While Keystone XL is still a very relevant and important project, it no longer appears to be as crucial as it once did to shaping Canada's energy export future," RBC says, concluding that its impact on CAD has thereby likely diminished. The situation remains fluid, however, as tougher oil-by-rail rules introduced by Canada earlier this week could put the pressure back on pipelines.

Russian bonds yields

Naturally, Russian bonds yields are trading higher after the downgrade to just above junk status. The Central Bank of Russia (CBR) was expected to leave rates on hold at +7%, nonetheless bank officials deemed it necessary to hike the key policy by 50bps to +7.5%. From a Russian perspective, further aggressive rate hikes are neither welcome nor warranted given the obvious slowdown in growth. However, it may be a necessity given that the capital outflows from Russia are likely to accelerate over the coming months. The CBR may have no choice but to resort to capital controls or higher interest rates. CBR officials estimated that the net capital outflow for the first quarter at $64B to be the same as the whole of 2013.

British economy

There is no arguing that the British economy has enjoyed a strong recovery, but that does not mean that policymakers at the BOE see eye-to-eye on the health of the economy or inflation. The minutes of the previous policy meeting indicated that Monetary Policy Committee members were “uncertain” about the amount of spare capacity in the economy and the medium-term inflation outlook. Importantly, the MPC voted unanimously to maintain the benchmark interest rate at 0.50%. With the unemployment rate down to 6.9%, there is growing speculation that we could see a rate hike as early as next spring, although the BOE has done its best to dampen expectations of a rate increase.

Wednesday, April 23, 2014

Falling U.S. labor force

Falling U.S. labor force participation reflects a weak economic recovery rather than more intractable structural factors such as skill mismatches and demographic shifts, argue Danny Blanchflower, now a professor at Dartmouth University, and Adam Posen, president of the Peterson Institute for International Economics, in a draft paper.
U.S. labor force participation, the share of adults holding or actively seeking jobs, has fallen from a high of 67.3% in early 2000, with the decline accelerating after the 2008 financial crisis. At 63.2% in March, it was near its lowest level since the late 1970s.
"A substantial portion of those American workers who became inactive should not be treated as gone forever, but should be expected to spring back into the labor market if demand rises to create jobs. Labor market slack in the U.S. economy remains substantial, and subject to partial control by monetary stimulus," Messrs. Blanchflower and Posen write. Translation: There are a lot of Americans who would work if there were more jobs available, and the Fed can help spur hiring through easy credit policies.
The research adds to the debate about how much of the recent softness in U.S. economic activity can be remedied by interest rate policy at a time when borrowing costs are already close to record lows.

Tuesday, April 22, 2014

Crude stockpiles

West Texas Intermediate crude declined from its highest closing level in seven weeks on estimates that U.S. supplies rose last week. Brent slipped as U.S. Vice President Joe Biden met with Ukrainian leaders.
Crude stockpiles in the U.S., the world’s biggest oil consumer, probably increased for the 13th time in 14 weeks, a Bloomberg News survey shows before Energy Information Administration data tomorrow. Russia and the U.S. traded blame for failing to rein in extremists in Ukraine as a diplomatic accord, reached last week to ease the crisis, neared collapse. Vice President Biden is meeting with officials in Kiev today.

Gold prices

Gold prices are flat in Tuesday trading, as the markets return to action after the Easter holiday. In the European session, the spot price is $1291.69. On the release front, today’s key event is Existing Home Sales. The indicator has been on a downward spiral, and this is expected to continue in the March release. Will the indicator surprise the markets with and rebound higher?
US releases ended the week on a high note, as employment and manufacturing numbers were strong. The all-important Unemployment Claims was up slightly to 304 thousand, but had no trouble beating the estimate of 316 thousand. With the Federal Reserve planning another trim to its QE program at the end of the month and speculation rising about a possible interest rate increase next year, every employment release is under the market microscope. Meanwhile, the Philly Fed Manufacturing Index soared to 16.6 points, its best showing since September. This was well above the estimate of 9.6 points.

Monday, April 21, 2014

Japan’s trade deficit quadrupled

Japan’s trade deficit quadrupled in March as export growth slowed and energy imports continued to rise.A weak Japanese currency, which pushed up the cost of imports, also contributed to the widening gap.The deficit rose to 1.45 trillion yen ($14bn; £8.4bn), up from 356.9bn yen during the same month a year ago.Japan’s energy imports have been rising after it shut all its nuclear reactors in the aftermath of the earthquake and tsunami in 2011.
According to the latest trade data, imports of Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG) rose more than 8% in March, compared to the same month last year. Meanwhile, imports of Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) rose nearly 4%.And Japan is having to pay more for those imports after a series of aggressive policy moves aimed at spurring economic growth – including a huge boost to the country’s money supply – have weakened the yen sharply.The Japanese currency fell nearly 10% against the US dollar between March 2013 and March this year.

Bank of Canada

The U.S. dollar was recently at C$1.1025 early Monday, from C$1.1024 late Friday, according to data provider CQG.
With investors returning after a long weekend and a dearth of economic indicators, currency markets were quiet to begin the trading week. The U.S. dollar was is expected to hug the C$1.11 level in the near term, but could improve against a weaker loonie thanks to a dovish Bank of Canada and a recovering U.S. economy.
"With an important week of data ahead and hopes that the U.S. economy is starting to that out from the winter slowdown, we still rather think the U.S. dollar is in good position to improve against the Canadian dollar,"

Sunday, April 20, 2014

Breakouts stock, forex, futures trading

Trading breakouts can be high risk, high stress, low reward, and low probability or this type of trading can be low risk, low stress, high reward, and high probability. The difference lies in when you enter into this type of position.  A important way to making these work that is beyond to learn how to read and understand charts: When taking any buy or sell entries in stocks or any other market, make sure you know exactly where price is with regard to the larger time frame supply  demand curve.
No matter what you trade Stocks, Futures, Forex, and Options, understand that behind all the candles on your charts in all these markets are traders and their emotions. Many of the traders will fall for the emotional breakout trading traps while other traders will make money from them. Thus instead of entering the market on the initial move higher or lower from a level, you should trade on the first pullback into the fresh supply or demand level. This is one of the most common mistakes most traders and investors make.
Breakouts stock, forex, futures

Thursday, April 17, 2014

Bloomberg Consumer Comfort

The Bloomberg Consumer Comfort (COMFCOMF) Index rose to minus 29.1 in the period ended April 13 from minus 31.9 the prior week, the weakest reading since the start of February. The monthly economic expectations gauge improved in April after falling to a four-month low.
Sentiment recovered broadly last week among most income groups, with consumers’ spirits lifted in part by warmer weather that’s helped lower home-heating bills. Employment opportunities that propel bigger wage gains will provide Americans the wherewithal to extend a recent pickup in spending, supporting the economy.

EUR/JPY intraday

  dip action is still well contained for   now, so those that are still looking to buy dips in the current range pattern environment should look to do so while the 140.92 support level holds. Mkt is not wanting to push the limits today and  to the upside 141.90/142.00 is key. Only if that zone is taken out    would the setup turn a bit more bullish.

Wednesday, April 16, 2014

China's weaker GDP

Most common reaction to China's weaker GDP data "appears to be relief that growth has not slowed further," Capital Economics writes, though "the bulk of the monthly data confirm the loss of momentum." Despite the weakening and downside risks, growth is still rapid, the firm notes, and "no evidence that China is at imminent risk of a 'hard landing.'" Capital Economics also says hopes of "substantial policy stimulus are also likely to be disappointed," and as long as the labor market stays healthy, it sees no policy loosening which could "undermine efforts to rein in wasteful borrowing and investment."

Bank of Canada's policy statement

 The Bank of Canada's policy statement steps up its emphasis on needing to see a shift to exports and business spending, and away from consumption as Canada's key growth drivers. It says the gradual strengthening in the fundamental drivers of growth and inflation it expects "hinges critically on the projected upturn in exports and investment." The central bank is also still concerned about inflation missing on the downside and how risks associated with household finances "remain elevated."

Manufacturing output

Manufacturing output--the largest component of industrial production--rose 0.5% in March, following a 1.4% gain the month before. The figures show manufacturing is strengthening after unusually cold weather hit many sectors of the economy in December and January. For manufacturers, low temperatures and storms kept workers at home, delayed shipments and affected production.
For the first quarter this year, industrial production moved up at an annual rate of 4.4%, just slightly slower than the prior three months, the Fed said.
Looking ahead, high inventories of manufactured goods could slow production if demand doesn't pick up. Factory stockpiles rose in February from a year earlier, according to a separate Commerce Department report. Factories typically pull back if too many goods have collected on shelves.
Production of long-lasting goods including appliances and furniture boosted the manufacturing gain. However, production of motor vehicles and parts declined 0.8% last month.

Tuesday, April 15, 2014

World Trade Organization

The World Trade Organization predicts global commerce will grow 5.3 percent next year, an improvement that would bring it back in line with its 1993-2013 historic average.
In its annual report released Monday, the Geneva-based WTO also forecast that world trade will rise by 4.7 percent this year. This is an increase of 0.2 percentage points compared with previous forecasts for 2014.
The figures reflect growing confidence that developed countries have recovered from the economic crisis that caused global trade to slump in 2009.

EUR/JPY hourly chart pattern

EUR/JPY hourly chart pattern is still not offering much towork with here. The key support is 140.00 and only a close below      there would create the breakdown confirmation that has eluded this mkt for a while now. While 140.00 holds, the mkt will be expected to make yet another comeback move. Resistance at     141.00/12.

European Central Bank

European Central Bank officials have become vocal about the strength of the exchange rate and how it weighs on euro-zone inflation. Continued low inflation in the euro zone could pose a threat to the ECB's inflation expectations in the medium term and could force the central bank to implement nonstandard measures such as asset purchases.
"While the comments from policy makers have become decidedly more pointed recently, the lack of action by the ECB thus far should ultimately limit the euro's losses. The single currency is unlikely to fall sharply until the threat of policy response from the ECB becomes more imminent," said Omer Esiner, chief market analyst at Commonwealth Foreign Exchange Inc.,

Saturday, April 12, 2014

Moving Average Convergence-Divergence

 MACD (Moving Average Convergence-Divergence) is a highly effective and practical trend-following indicator which is widely available on most technical analysis software programs. Traders and investors with this indicator at their disposal would be well advised to learn as much as they can about it and how to use it to improve their trade timing and selection. This comprehensive guide to MACD is a one-of-a-kind one-stop reference that will prove a valuable addition your trading library. It includes a bullet point summary overview of MACD, a detailed bibliography detailing all known references and articles relating to MACD, with annotation showing unique points covered in each source.
Divergence MACD

Friday, April 11, 2014

Wave 59 Trading Software

Use neural nets, price forecasting, and an amazing array of proprietary indicators in your own trading. Once accessible only to select CTAs and floor traders, these tools are now available to private traders for their own use. Try it for a day, and we guarantee you'll never want to go back to your old charting software! Use neural nets, price forecasting, and an amazing array of proprietary indicators in your own trading. Once accessible only to select CTAs and floor traders, these tools are now available to private traders for their own use. Try it fora day, and we guarantee you'll never want to go back to your old charting software!

Low risk Trading

 Low Risk: Entering at or close to the turn in price means you are entering a position in the market very close to your protective stop. This allows for maximum position size while not risking more than you are willing to lose. The further you enter the market away from the turn in price, the more you will have to reduce position size to keep risk in line.  High Reward (profit margin): Similar to number one above, the closer your entry is to the turn in price, the greater your profit margin. The further you enter into the market from the turn in price, the more you are reducing your profit.   High Probability trading Traders need the best time to enter a trade means knowing where the real buyers and sellers are in a market. When you are buying where the major buy orders are in a market, that means you are buying from someone who is selling where the major buy orders are in the market and that is a very novice mistake. When you trade with a new trader, the odds are stacked in your favor.
Low risk Trading

low float stocks

 Trading the low float stock can make you money in the NASDAQ. Many low float stocks can be traded but traders need to do some research. Stocks which have a float of under 10 million shares are considered to be low float. Many times the float is much smaller. Traders need to know facts like the number of outstanding shares, short interest, and what the company industry is.
  Low Float stocks are attractive investment to make money when trading because these stocks can move quickly higher without any substantial institutional support. Most Low Float stocks are extremely volatile so you need take this into account before chasing any of the stocks on this list as they can quickly move higher only to fall faster. Traders should not chase these stock once they have started to move.
Low float stock list

Tuesday, April 8, 2014

Option trading basics

 The beauty of paper trading is that you get to test your ideas without risking real dollars. Learn from your mistakes at no cost. At the same time, follow these paper trades as if your real hardearned dollars were at risk  which should teach you how to monitor open positions . There’s an emotional and psychological element to trading that causes human beings to react differently when we feel something important  money  is on the line, versus how we trade when we feel no such pressures. Please take the simulation seriously, as it is a core element in the flow of this program.You will very quickly understand that call options can give you the right to buy a stock at a specified price for a specified period of time, and that put options gave you the right to sell rather than to buy a stock.
You will also learn that if you were very bullish on a particular stock, you wanted to buy a call option, because if  you were correct and the stock rose significantly in price, your call option would allow you to buy that stock well below the market price. You could thus buy low  by exercising the terms of your call option and buying the stock at the specified price  and then sell high by selling the stock that had rallied . And relative to your small initial investment, your profits could be huge. Of course, all of this favorable stock movement needed to occur before the option expired, and if the necessary rally in the stock did not occur by the expiration date you would lose the entire sum you paid for the option.

Monday, April 7, 2014

Roth IRA

Many changes in the year to come will benefit all wage earners regardless of income. If you are now in a regular IRA you
might want to consider changing to the Roth. You will need to do your research first and make sure it is right for you. You can make deposits that are not tax deductible. Your money can be withdrawn after 5 years without paying any taxes. You can also leave your money in the plan for as long as you want.You need to look at the tax you would have to pay if you move from a regular IRA to a Roth account. In 2010 you can spread the tax over two years.
  You need to determine the tax bracket you are in when you decide to retire. You should look at the difference in keeping your money in a regular IRA or moving it to the new account. It would be best if you can leave the money in a Roth for 10 years or more.
You would need to look at what the tax amount would be today compared to ten years from now.You
will need to pay a conversion tax if you decide to move your money but you will save a great deal in the long run. You need to look at how does this fit into my overall retirement plan.
  What you need to ask yourself is how many years will it be until I decide to start taking the money out. The more years you leave the money in the account the more it will build up. You can also leave the money in the Roth for your children or someone else. There are no mandatory payment requirements.

Friday, April 4, 2014

Don't confuse the IRA

You as an investor signs up for a self-directed IRA, the first thing he or she notices is the newfound investment freedom. Virtually any asset can be purchased with the IRA and the investor can effect the transaction by simply signing a check. However, with great freedom comes great responsibility. Since the investor will now be handling the IRA transactions personally, there's more room for error. Here are the top mistakes that investors should be aware of when dealing with their self-directed retirement funds.
Don't confuse the IRA with its checking account.
The platform for investing your IRA funds is the LLC and its accompanying checking account. However, this platform is for investment and business purposes only. It is not meant to be used as an access point to the IRA itself. All contributions and distributions should be taken solely via the custodian.
IRA investing self-directed IRA

initial public offering

An initial public offering (IPO) or stock market launch is the first sale of stock by a company to the public. Initial Public Offerings Why traders Have a tough time buying shares. The underwriters and the company that issues the shares control the IPO process.All companies with shares that are publicly traded on the stock market had an IPO at one point. There are six systematic steps that an option trader should go through when trading, regardless if the stock is an IPO or not.Without getting too deep into it, we should emphasize that it is wise to look for the Sympathy Move, meaning if one stock, mostly the leader, in a certain sector goes up or down, most likely it would bring the others in the industry with it. For instance, DNKN is in the Services Sector and Restaurant Industry. This data was also pulled out from the Yahoo! Finance page on the left side under the Company Profile, all at NO cost to us, the stock researchers.

Thursday, April 3, 2014

Investment clubs

 Starting an investment club is fun and can be financially rewarding. Members of investment clubs usually have between 10 and 40 members, but normally have around fifteen trading members. When each investment club member joins the club they will deposit money into the club which earns them buying power when the club makes an investment. The investment club software will enter the amount invested and apply units for each member. Units can be figured such as for each $100.00 invested you will receive ten units. The clubs software will figure this automatically.
  The (NAIC) National Association of Investment Clubs can provide much of the trading information you need to know about starting your own investment club. The Web site has pages full on advise on investment clubs, you can go to "About Clubs" link on the front page NAIC site. Another web site with info can be found online at Investment Club Central. They provide a directory of resources about investment clubs from all over the internet. Go to "Articles" to learn more about investment clubs and operating one, they have club software that can be purchased to set up the finance of the club and stock analysis. Yahoo has Investment Club Central is its directory of Web sites of investment clubs.
Stock and Forex Investment Clubs