Tuesday, September 30, 2014

Gold remains under pressure

Gold remains under pressure on Tuesday, as the metal continues to lose ground to the strong US dollar. In the European session, the spot price stands at $1207.40 per ounce. On the release front, todays key event is CB Consumer Confidence, with the markets expecting another strong reading above the 90-point level.The sharp gains by the US dollar is weighing on gold prices, as a stronger dollar diminishes the metal’s appeal as an alternative asset to the dollar. The dollar has enjoyed a spectacular September, and gold prices have tumbled over 6% during this period. We could see gold dip below $1200, which last occurred in December.

USD/CAD

Consolidation was the name of the game on CAD today, USD/CAD effectively contained in the 1.1250-1.1290 range, while EUR/CAD held above 1.4265. Canadian payrolls release due out tomorrow has been volatile lately, not surprising considering it's a household survey, similar to the very volatile US household employment survey. A large deviation from the expectation may send the market bouncing around but this will change little from the BoC's standpoint as the bank is all but certain to keep rates unchanged on Oct 17. The US employment report and USD sentiment will probably dominate tomorrow. We are still not fully convinced by the latest breakout and would like to see a decisive break of 1.1346 before declaring an end to the current 2-month range

Monday, September 29, 2014

EUR/USD Daily

 EUR/USD   Daily
14::10 GMT - Recovery has been capped in the 1.2700/20 res. band and  prices have settled back. 1.2685/90 should be sup. now and this should hold if the recovery is going to extend. If it fails, a retest of 1.2661 should follow.N.I.

Friday, September 26, 2014

Diverging monetary policies have fueled the U.S. dollars strength

Diverging monetary policies have fueled the U.S. dollars strength this summer, more so against the EUR than any of the other Group of Seven (G-7) currencies. On Thursday, the pressure applied to the single unit managed to push it to its weakest outright level (€1.2697) in almost two years. To date, the greenback has ridden the wave of quantitative easing (QE) tapering and the prospect of a mid-2015 rate hike, and because of that, the market has been able to ride the telegraphed last five-cent EUR freefall with very little obstruction.
Gold headed for the first weekly advance this month as a retreat in global equities and tensions in the Middle East boosted demand for a protection of wealth, countering expectations for higher U.S. borrowing costs.
Bullion for immediate delivery rose 0.4 percent to $1,226.90 an ounce at 9:46 a.m. in Singapore, extending yesterdays 0.4 percent advance, according to Bloomberg generic pricing. The metal is 0.9 percent higher this week, rebounding from a drop on Sept. 22 to $1,208.40, the lowest since Jan. 2.
Gold remains on course for the first quarterly loss this year as the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index climbed to a four-year high. A report today may show the U.S. economy grew more than previously estimated after data yesterday showed jobless claims rose less than forecast. Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Bahrain, Qatar and the United Arab Emirates joined the first wave of U.S.-led airstrikes against Islamic State militants in Syria this week.

Thursday, September 25, 2014

US dollar strength

Diverging monetary policies have fueled US dollar strength this summer, but Chapdelaine Foreign Exchange's Doug Borthwick thinks a pullback is coming. The greenback has ridden the wave of QE tapering and prospect of a mid-2015 rate hike. But further strength will need to be derived from how the Fed manages its balance sheet, and here, Borthwick thinks any wind down will be a drawn out process. Meanwhile, any ECB effort to boost its balance sheet is limited within its ABS-buying program. "This may be the point where the market digests recent comments and pulls back the excitement as recent rhetoric shows the foundation to the trade is not exactly built on stone."

Wednesday, September 24, 2014

EUR/USD Daily

 EUR/USD   Daily
13::40 GMT - Mkt. has broken to a new low and we should see a run down to the 1.2745/55 area next. Initial res. is at recent lows at   1.2810/20.N.I.

USD/CAD has taken a breathe

After strong gains this week, USD/CAD has taken a breather on Wednesday, as the pair trades in the mid-1.10 range in the European session.  The Canadian dollar has sagged, losing over 100 points since Monday. On the release front, today highlight is US New Home Sales. The markets are expecting the indicator to improve in the upcoming release. There are no Canadian releases on Wednesday.
It was a poor start for Canadian numbers this week as retail numbers were dismal in August. Core Retail Sales slipped by 0.6%, the indicator’s first decline since January. The estimate stood at -0.1%. Retail Sales also softened, posting a decline of -0.1%. The markets had anticipated a gain of 0.4%. The weak figures point to decreasing spending by Canadian consumers, which does not bode well for the Canadian economy, as consumer spending is a critical engine for economic growth.

Tuesday, September 23, 2014

U.S. dollar weakened

The U.S. dollar weakened against its major counterparts on Tuesday, as U.S. treasury yields fell amid bargain hunting, as well as on expectations that the U.S. Federal Reserve would not raise rates quickly given the recent weak economic data.
The 10-year Treasury yield fell 0.76 percent to 2.547 percent, while yields on 30-year Treasuries were at 3.271 percent, a 0.54 percent decrease. The yield falls when bond prices rise.
Data from the National Association of Realtors showed that U.S. existing home sales fell unexpectedly by 1.8 percent in August, halting four months of gains. According to a report from Chicago Federal Reserve, manufacturing activity in the U.S. weakened in August, with the national activity index based on a survey declining to -0.21 in the month from a positive reading of 0.26 in the previous month.

Japanese yen

The Japanese yen is stable on Tuesday, as USD/JPY trades in the mid-108 range late in the European session. Trade is light as the Japanese markets are closed for a national holiday. In the US, today’s highlight is the Richmond Manufacturing Index. The indicator is expected to post another strong reading.
USD/JPY enjoyed another strong week, buoyed by dollar gains after the Federal Reserve statement on Wednesday. The Fed statement reaffirmed that interest rates would remain ultra-low for a “considerable time” after the asset purchase scheme (QE) ends next month, but surprised the markets in hinting that once a rate hike was introduced, rate levels could move up more quickly than expected. As expected, the Fed trimmed QE by $10 billion/month, and the remaining $15 billion/month is scheduled to be phased out in October.

Monday, September 22, 2014

USD/JPY,,AUD/USD

The Japanese yen continues to struggle, as USD/JPY lost about 170 points last week. The pair is trading just above the 109 line in Monday’s European session, as the yen trades at its lowest level in over six years. On the release front, the only US data on the schedule is Existing Home Sales. There are no Japanese releases on Monday.
US Unemployment Claims has looked sluggish over the past two readings, but that changed on Thursday, as the key indicator sparkled, dropping to 280 thousand, down sharply from 315 thousand in the previous reading. The estimate stood at 312 thousand. Building Permits was not as strong, dipping to 1.00M. This was shy of the estimate of 1.04M.
The Australian dollar continues to head south on Monday, as AUD/USD trades in the high-0.88 range late in the European session. The Aussie has been in free fall in September, giving up about 450 points. Taking a look at Monday’s events, the US will release Existing Home Sales later in the day. There are no Australian releases on Monday.
US Unemployment Claims has looked sluggish over the past two readings, but that changed on Thursday, as the key indicator sparkled, dropping to 280 thousand, down sharply from 315 thousand in the previous reading. The estimate stood at 312 thousand. Building Permits was not as strong, dipping to 1.00M. This was shy of the estimate of 1.04M. There was disappointing news from the manufacturing front, as the Philly Fed Manufacturing Index slipped to 22.5 points, down from 28.0 a month earlier. The estimate stood at 22.8 points.

Sunday, September 21, 2014

Bullish Stocks

Good traders know that there are steps that they need to prepare for trading and buying stocks that are bullish from reports and news. They are not difficult or take much time once you make it part of your trading play book. The first step is to identify the overall trend of the broad market. Many use the S&P 500 but if you are trading in other countries you can use the Nifty, the Straits Times Index, the Nikkei, the FTSE or any market index. You need to then know the probable direction for the trading day. Use your technical analysis charts to judge the strength of the trend and even see what related markets are doing.
Once you have finished that research, then you need to find the stocks that look good in the move of the market for the day. There are many  stock screeners that allow you to search for these and most brokers have them. You need to filter for stocks with good average volume to avoid being stuck in a trade or tricked by a specialist or market maker. You also want to filter for stocks with good volatility but not so much that you are at great risk. Many use average true range to find them.
Bullish Stocks

Friday, September 19, 2014

US dollar gained ground

The US dollar gained ground against gold on Wednesday following the Federal Reserve statement. The Fed statement reaffirmed that interest rates would remain ultra-low for a “considerable time” after the asset purchase scheme (QE) ends next month, but surprised the markets in hinting that once a rate hike was introduced, rate levels could move up more quickly than expected. As expected, the Fed trimmed QE by $10 billion/month, and the remaining $15 billion/month is scheduled to be phased out in October.
US inflation data was worse than expected on Wednesday. CPI, the primary gauge of consumer inflation, came in at -0.2%, its first drop since October. The estimate stood at +0.1%. Core CPI followed suit with a flat reading of 0.0%. This was the first time the index failed to post a gain since October 2010. The weak numbers follow disappointing manufacturing inflation data. PPI, a key event, dipped to just 0.0%, a 3-month low. The estimate stood at 0.1%. Core PPI slipped to 0.1%, down from 0.2% a month earlier. This matched the forecast. Low inflation continues to be a concern and could delay an interest rate hike in 2015.

Thursday, September 18, 2014

Gold prices continue to fall

Gold prices continue to fall, as the spot price stands at $1219.60 per ounce on Thursday. XAU/USD is at its lowest levels since late December of 2013. On the release front, there are three key events on the calendar Building Permits, Unemployment Claims and the Philly Fed Manufacturing Index. As well, Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen will deliver remarks at an event in Washington.
The US dollar gained close to 100 points on Wednesday following the Federal Reserve statement. The Fed statement reaffirmed that interest rates would remain ultra-low for a “considerable time” after the asset purchase scheme (QE) ends next month, but surprised the markets in hinting that once a rate hike was introduced, rate levels could move up more quickly than expected. As expected, the Fed trimmed QE by $10 billion/month, and the remaining $15 billion/month is scheduled to be phased out in October.

Wednesday, September 17, 2014

Texas Oil

West Texas Intermediate crude fell from a two-week high after an industry group was said to report an increase in U.S. inventories.
WTI slid for the first time in three days. The American Petroleum Institute reported yesterday that supplies rose 3.3 million barrels last week, according to Bain Energy. The Energy Information Administration will release its inventory data today. Brent climbed as Libya halted its biggest oil field.The build in the API report was quite big, said Gene McGillian, an analyst and broker at Tradition Energy in Stamford, Connecticut. If we get a confirmation from the EIA, I wont be surprised if WTI starts to give up more of yesterdays gains. Brent is focusing on reports that Libya has reduced production.WTI for October delivery slid 17 cents to $94.71 a barrel at 9:03 a.m. on the New York Mercantile Exchange. The volume of all futures traded was about 6.8 percent above the 100-day average for the time of day.
Brent for November settlement advanced 22 cents to $99.27 a barrel on the ICE Futures Europe exchange. Volume was 3 percent above the 100-day average. The European benchmark crude was at a premium of $5.61 to WTI on ICE for the same month. It closed at $5.24 yesterday.

Tuesday, September 16, 2014

MT4 Chart Application

Trader on Chart won't make you money on it's own, so don't be confused, but if you are opening trades manually and use Metatrader 4 platform the Trader On Chart will be like a gulp of fresh air for you.
Imagine you want to open a buy trade, risk 5% of available funds, have a stop loss of sixty five pips and a take profit of ninety five pips? All you have to do is fill in those numbers and just click the green button. Or maybe you want to risk a specific amount of money and set the stop loss at the last closed price bar's lowest price? The app can do this too.
You know it's hard to survive a night in the woods without the matches. Sure you can rub two wooden sticks to start a fire, but if you have matches it takes only few seconds. This is why it is important to have trading tools and use them every day as much as you can. Stop doing the work that apps can do for you and use that energy for currency analysis or other important jobs which will take you another step closer to your big goal, your big dream, your purpose in life.
Trader on Chart app for MT4!

The Australian dollar,,Japanese yen

The Australian dollar briefly dipped below the 90 level on Tuesday, as AUD/USD dropped to its lowest level since March. Late in the European session, the pair is trading in the mid-0.90 range. On the release front, the RBA minutes stated that interest rates would remain at current levels and that the Australian dollar was overvalued. In the US, inflation numbers remain soft, as PPI came in at 0.0% last month.
The RBA minutes contained no surprises, as the minutes focused on interest rate levels and the value of the Australian dollar. The RBA said that rate levels would remain unchanged and took a swipe at the Aussie, noting that the exchange rate remains “above most estimates of its fundamental value.” There was further pressure on the currency as RBA Assistant Governor Christopher Kent said on Tuesday that a decline in the Australian dollar would increase demand for local producers. Perhaps the RBA policymakers are in a better mood this week, following the Aussie’s losses of over 300 points against the US dollar.

The Japanese yen remains practically unchanged this week, as USD/JPY trades just above the 107 line. On the release front, US inflation numbers remain soft, as PPI came in at 0.0% last month. In Japan, BoJ Governor Haruhiko Kuroda spoke at a press conference in Osaka.
US inflation indicators remain soft, as underscored by weak manufacturing inflation numbers in August. PPI, a key event, dipped to just 0.0%, a 3-month low. The estimate stood at 0.1%. Core PPI slipped to 0.1%, down from 0.2% a month earlier. This matched the forecast. We’ll get a look at consumer inflation numbers on Wednesday, with the release of Core CPI and CPI.

Monday, September 15, 2014

Gold prices are steady

Gold prices are steady on Monday, as the spot price stands at $1233.77 per ounce in the European session. The metal had an awful week, shedding about 3% against the surging US dollar. In economic news, there are no major US releases on Monday. The week started out on a positive note, as Empire State Manufacturing Index jumped to 27.5 points, well above expectations.
US numbers wrapped up last week on a high note. Core Retail Sales improved to 0.3%, edging above the estimate of 0.2%. Retail Sales posted a nice gain of 0.6%, well above the estimate of 0.3%. There was excellent news from the UoM Consumer Sentiment, which bounced back from a weak reading in July and improved to 84.6 points, its best showing since November 2012. The forecast stood at 83.2 points. These indicators point to an increase in consumer confidence and spending, which underscore a deepening economic recovery.

Trends in Forex and Stock Trading

Traders are using two simple moving averages on the chart of the S&P 500 Index. This helps to determine the trend even though it is delayed.
The main thing to remember is that this is not a timing technique. It is only to help traders see how strong or weak the current trend is and when an trader may want to move their money into safety or be more aggressive and add to their positions.  Moving averages are a trend following technical analysis tool.  They are created by averaging past closing prices. Thus we are using past prices, we are seeing what the trend was, not necessarily will be however it is a good indicator if the trend will continue.
To use this particular trading technique, lets look at a weekly chart of the S&P 500 Index.  It has both a forty week simple moving average (SMA) and an eighty week SMA on the chart.  If the market is bullish, price should be above the 40 SMA.  The 40 week SMA should also be higher than the 80 week SMA.  A bear market is signaled when the 40 week SMA finally crosses below the 80 week SMA.  When this happens, the forex or stock markets usually move down quickly and for an extended period of time.  A trader should look to trade those securities that thrive in bearish markets when this crossover occurs.  They can sell futures, buy puts, or even invest in inverse ETF’s.You should also keep in mind that this technical analysis technique is not a perfect science.  Nothing is perfect when trading but this can help you make winning trades.
Trends in Forex and Stock Trading

Thursday, September 11, 2014

USD/JPY

The Japanese yen continues to slide, as USD/JPY pushed above the 107 on Thursday. This marks the pair’s highest level since September 2008. In economic news, US Unemployment Claims rose to 315 thousand, well above the estimate. There are no Japanese releases on Thursday.
US employment numbers continue to raise concern. Last week’s Unemployment Claims rose to 315 thousand, the largest number of claims in 10 weeks. The reading was much higher than the estimate of 306 thousand. This follows soft numbers from JOLTS Job Openings and a dismal Nonfarm Payrolls last week. The troubling job numbers are unlikely to affect the Fed’s plan to trim QE next week, but a weak labor market could postpone plans to raise interest rates by mid-2015.
Over in Japan, after some disappointing manufacturing indicators earlier this week, the BSI Manufacturing Index provided some sorely needed positive news. The index bounced back from a reading of -13.9 points in Q1, rising to 12.7 points in Q2. This surprised the markets, which had expected the indicator to fall to -10.3 points. With zero separating contraction from expansion, the indicator points to surprisingly strong optimism from large Japanese manufacturers. Earlier in the week, Core Machinery Orders came in at 3.5%, sharply down from 8.8% in the previous release. This followed a weak reading from Tertiary Industry Activity, which posted a flat reading of 0.0%.

Wednesday, September 10, 2014

CAD News

TORONTO--The Canadian dollar was slightly lower early Wednesday, maintaining a range-bound trade after a quiet overnight session while second-tier domestic data failed to budge the loonie.
The U.S. dollar was recently at C$1.0989 early Wednesday, from C$1.0983 late Tuesday, according to data provider CQG.
The greenback was broadly higher to start the North American trading session, moving higher against the loonie, Australian dollar and yen. The only notable data point traders focused on during the overnight session was a disappointing release of Japan's Producer Price Index in August and falling consumer confidence in Australia.
In Canada, the loonie failed to react to data that showed the Canadian capacity utilization rate increased to 82.7% in the second quarter from a downwardly revised 82.1% in the prior quarter, but was below expectations of a 82.9% increase.

Tuesday, September 9, 2014

EUR/JPY Daily Japanese yen

 EUR/JPY   Daily
13::30 GMT - Mon.'s run up topped in the pm. but that high has now beenexceeded as 137 is pressed- the EUR's now about half way back through last week's decline but a consolidation above 136.50 will keep the EUR bullish for later pm./ Wed.

The Japanese yen continues to shrink, as USD/JPY trades just above the 106 line in Tuesday’s European session. The last time the pair was at these levels was in October 2008. Japanese Tertiary Industry Activity continued to sputter, posting a flat reading of 0.0%. The BoJ minutes stated that policymakers were concerned with inflation levels. On Tuesday, we’ll get a look at Japanese Core Machinery Orders, an important manufacturing indicator. In the US, today’s highlight is JOLTS Jobs Openings. The employment indicator has improved over three consecutive releases, and the upward swing is expected to continue, with an estimate of 4.72M.
The BoJ minutes did not contain any surprises, coming on the heels of a policy meeting in which the BoJ unanimously decided to maintain its current monetary policy. Policy makers stated that inflation levels should be carefully assessed as to whether inflation will reach the 2% target in 2015. On an optimistic note, the minutes stated that economic growth and inflation were in line with forecasts.

Monday, September 8, 2014

Brent crude

Brent crude fell below $100 a barrel for the first time since June 2013, as a slowdown in imports into China reinforced signs of surplus oil supply. West Texas Intermediate dropped to the lowest in almost eight months.
The global benchmark slipped as much as $1.10, or 1.1 percent, to $99.72 a barrel in London. The last time it traded below $100 was June 24, 2013. China's purchases declined 2.4 percent in August, compared with a 1.6 percent drop in July, data from the Beijing-based customs administration show. Chinese exports rose by 9.4 percent.
Oil markets in the U.S. and Europe face a glut amid constrained consumption and the recovery of supplies from Libya, according to the International Energy Agency, the Paris-based adviser to 29 nations. Growth in China, the world second-biggest oil consumer, will drop to 7.4 percent this year, the weakest pace since 1990, according to economist estimates compiled by Bloomberg. It will slide to 7.2 percent in 2015.

Thursday, September 4, 2014

Forex, equities or futures has its advantages

The best trades for the day trader comes when the markets enter into a trend. Next day gaps can open with a gap down that formed a major top the day before. When prices broke the last minor bottom, they also broke lows and gave a signal to enter the trend short. This is where daytrding can be tough on a new traders.  By maintaining the stops above the most recent minor top, a trader was in on most of the collapse of the markets on that day.  A daytrader was able to find the right trades to capture a larger part of the dominant trend. Thus that they will not get the absolute high or low for entry, but trading with the trend allows you safer, higher probability, lower risk trades that build the consistent profits day traders want.
Equities Day trading

Wednesday, September 3, 2014

USD/JPY

USD/JPY continues to lose ground on Wednesday, as the pair trades at the 105 line late in the European session. In the US, there are no major US events on the calendar. There are no Japanese releases on Wednesday, but the markets will be keeping a close eye on the Bank of Japan, as the central bank releases its monetary policy statement early Thursday.
Recent Japanese numbers have been steady, so the markets are not expecting any surprises from upcoming BOJ minutes. July’s inflation numbers were strong and met expectations, as taming deflation has become one of the government’s major economic success stories. Capital Spending hit 3.0% in August, well short of the forecast of 3.8%. Average Cash Earnings, which measures employment income, shot up 2.6% last month, crushing the estimate of 0.9%.
Despite the fact that recent Japanese data has been solid, the yen has been unable to hold its ground against the dollar, thanks to excellent US numbers. On Tuesday, ISM Manufacturing PMI impressed the markets, climbing to 59.0 points, its best showing since April 2011. The index easily beat the estimate of 57.0 points. The strong showing follows an unexpectedly strong GDP, which hit 4.2%. With the US economy moving forward at a fast clip, the US dollar has taken full advantage and has made broad gains this week against its major rivals.

Office for National Statistics

The Office for National Statistics has revised up its estimates for UK Gross Domestic Product during and after the recession.
The change comes after estimates of proceeds from charities, illegal drugs, and prostitution were included in the official figures for the first time.
Growth has been revised up by 0.1 percentage points per year between 1997 and 2012.
The ONS also suggested the recession ended in the third quarter of 2013. Previously it had suggested the recession carried on until the second quarter of 2014.The changes to the way the ONS calculates GDP show that the economy shrank by up to 6% in the recession, rather than the previous “peak-to-trough” estimate of 7.2%.The revisions for 1997 to 2012 show that the size of the economy was on average 4% – or 50bn – larger than previously thought each year.