Tuesday, August 26, 2014

USD/JPY Gold held losses

Gold held losses near a two-month low on speculation that the U.S. Federal Reserve will raise borrowing costs next year, strengthening the dollar and damping demand for an alternative investment. Bullion for immediate delivery fell as much as 0.2 percent to $1,274.82 an ounce, and traded at $1,276.25 at 8:18 a.m. in Singapore, according to Bloomberg generic pricing. The metal on Aug. 21 dropped to $1,273.14, the lowest level since June 18, as the minutes of the Feds last meeting signaled that policy makers may raise interest rates sooner than anticipated.

USD/JPY continues to trade at high levels on Tuesday, with the pair trading just below the 104 line. In Japan, the Services Producer Price Index posted an impressive 3.7% gain, matching the forecast. Over in the US, Core Durable Goods declined by 0.8%, but Durable Goods Orders set a monthly record with a huge jump of 22%.

When it comes to forex trading these days everyone should know the rules by now: the central banks dictate market direction. Last week’s Economic Symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyo., will be regarded as a watershed moment for the eurozone’s survival. Despite Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen’s “neutral or less dovish” tone, it was “super” Mario Draghi’s assertion that the European Central Bank (ECB) stands ready to act again that has quickened the pulse of capital markets.

 USD/CHF  Daily
13::15GMT - Though the mkt. broke the 0.9139 sup., downside was limited to 0.9135 before recovery back to the day high at 0.9164. Clearance  of the latter should be s/term positive and we could then see a retest of Mon's high at 0.9178. Sup. is at  0.9135.N.I.

Monday, August 25, 2014

How to Trade Gann Theory

 Making stock or Forex trades using Gann theory. This is a popular style of analysis that looks at patterns and repeatable price action based on time and is something traders need to learn. Many traders have decided it best to examine Gann Theory a bit further and learn how to trade with it. It takes time to learn but traders who learn how to use it make more winning trades.
There are three trends applicable to any timeframe which you are analyzing: Minor, Intermediate and Major. That also means that there are three types of swing highs and lows that correspond with these trends. Using the Gann swing highs and swing lows we can labeled Gann Swings are actually intermediate swings. In Gann trend analysis, a downtrend occurs when price breaks a swing bottom. If price moves downward in a defined uptrend but does not break a swing bottom, it is called a correction and the trader has no need to exit their long. A break of a swing bottom would constitute an exit signal.

USD/JPY Daily


13::20 GMT - Step back this am. is a bullish test of Fri value; it  follows Fri.'s spike test of 103.50 which easily retained the 103~ breakout. With last week's rise, the USD has moved decisively out of the YTD apex- now a hold above 104.10/ the start-Aprhighs confirms & points further up (to 105.45/ the YTD high.)

Friday, August 22, 2014

price of spot gold

The price of spot gold edged towards a two-month low on Friday morning as analysts weighed up the many factors that have been causing the commodity to trade in a tight range in recent months. Gold slipped to $1,279 per ounce in morning trade. It had been on a five-day losing streak and was headed for its worst week in five. That trend had turned around by midday London time with the price moving higher as tensions re-emerged in eastern Ukraine. But this could prove to be a brief respite with gold watchers predicting a slight fall in the longer term.In the 10 years up until last December 2012, gold had surged around 400 percent, with the help of low interest rates, extra Federal Reserve liquidity and concerns over the global economy. In 2013 it lost 30 percent of its value with the Fed beginning to dial back its $85 billion-a-month stimulus program. This year, meanwhile, the precious metal has added 6 percent to its price with a range of factors influencing both speculators and physical gold buyers.

Thursday, August 21, 2014

USD/JPY

The US dollar continues to gain ground against the Japanese yen, as USD/JPY flirts with the 104 range early in the North American session. On the release front, Japanese Manufacturing PMI improved to 52.4 points, beating the estimate. US Unemployment Claims beat the estimate, coming in at 298 thousand. Later in the day, we’ll get a look at the Philly Fed Manufacturing Index. The markets are braced for a sharp drop in the July reading.
In a highly anticipated event, the Federal Reserve released its policy meeting minutes on Wednesday. The minutes were hawkish in tone, with the Fed saying that an interest rate hike could come sooner rather than later if employment numbers continue to improve. The Fed said that the economy continues to improve, but the QE program, which is scheduled to wind up in October, will not be accelerated. The US dollar was broadly higher after the release of the minutes and gained about 80 points on Wednesday at the yen’s expense.

Gold prices are lower on Wednesday, as the metal has slipped to two-month lows. The spot price stands at $1281.34 per ounce in the European session. On the release front, it’s a busy day in the US, led by two key events Unemployment Claims and the Philly Fed Manufacturing Index. On Wednesday, the Federal Reserve released its minutes, and the hawkish tone gave a boost to the US dollar and pushed gold prices lower.

Wednesday, August 20, 2014

Gold and French Preliminary GDP

Gold is stable in Wednesday trading, as the metal continues to stay close to the key $1300 level. The spot price stands at $1297.16 per ounce in the European session. It’s a quiet day on the release front, highlighted by the Federal Reserve minutes, which should be treated by traders as a market-mover. Inflation numbers in the US remain at very low levels. On Tuesday, CPI and Core CPI, the primary gauges of consumer inflation, both posted paltry gains of 0.1%. These weak readings come on the heels of PPI, a manufacturing inflation index, which also came in at 0.1% last month. Weak inflation is one reason why the Federal Reserve is in no rush to raise interest rates, as low inflation points to slack in the economy.
Despite broad interest rate cuts by the ECB in June, the Eurozone continues to limp along, including Germany, the region’s locomotive. Inflation and growth levels remain weak, as underscored by last week’s GBP and inflation releases. French Preliminary GDP remained flat at 0.0%, unchanged from a month earlier. German Preliminary GDP slipped to -0.2%, the first contraction in the German economy since Q4 of 2012. Eurozone Flash GDP also weakened to -0.2%, down from 0.0% in the previous release. All three GDP releases missed their estimates, and the weak numbers could push the euro even lower. On the inflation front, the news is not good, as deflation is a growing concern. Last week, Eurozone Final CPI dipped to 0.4%, down from 0.5% a month earlier. As well, German and French inflation numbers remained weak.

Tuesday, August 19, 2014

Price and Profits in Trading

No matter what you trade stocks, Forex, Futures price movement is called a trend you have up trends and down trends.  As traders we identify the trend as the main direction of price movement.  The faster movements in the same direction of the trend are called the impulses.  The opposite movements against the trend are corrections it just depends on the buyers and sellers.  Most traders trade in the direction of the trend and attempt to enter into the impulses or at support areas.  The hardest part is realizing that how and why prices turn and move in markets has never changed, no matter how far technology advances it can change with news and volume. Faster and better number crunching will never be more important than knowing where banks and brokers are buying and selling.  Keeping things simple is the single greatest challenge for the average trader since they cannot place such large orders as they can.
Price and Profits

Gold rose 8.4 percent

Gold rose for the first time in three days in New York as investors weighed the standoff over Ukraine against a stronger dollar. Palladium was near a 13-year high.
Gold rose 8.4 percent this year partly as unrest helped fuel demand. Ukrainian government forces took control of one of four districts in the pro-Russian separatist stronghold of Luhansk, as the Red Cross said its working toward agreement on details of a safe-passage plan for a Russian aid convoy. Talks on a halt to the fighting stalled yesterday. Israel and Palestinian militants agreed to extend their five-day truce for 24 hours in another attempt to reach a long-term accord.
The dollar was near a nine-month high versus the euro amid signs of economic recovery that support the case for the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates. The Fed releases minutes of its July 29-30 policy meeting tomorrow and Chair Janet Yellen is due to deliver a speech on Aug. 22 at an annual symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyoming. Prospects for higher borrowing costs may support the greenback, and gold usually moves inversely to the currency.

Monday, August 18, 2014

GBP/USD Daily USD/JPY

 GBP/USD   Daily
13::10 GMT - After starting a bit higher today, the mkt. has leveled  off into a flat trade-still capped below the recent lows at  1.6750/60. Latter is res. followed by the 1.68 area. To the downside, very close sup. is at 1.6695/00 then 1.6654. N.I.
Despite broad interest rate cuts by the ECB in June, the Eurozone continues to limp along, including Germany, the region’s locomotive. Inflation and growth levels remain weak, as underscored by last week’s GBP and inflation releases. French Preliminary GDP remained flat at 0.0%, unchanged from a month earlier. German Preliminary GDP slipped to -0.2%, the first contraction in the German economy since Q4 of 2012. Eurozone Flash GDP also weakened to -0.2%, down from 0.0% in the previous release. All three GDP releases missed their estimates, and the weak numbers could push the euro even lower. On the inflation front, the news is not good, as deflation is a growing concern. Last week, Eurozone Final CPI dipped to 0.4%, down from 0.5% a month earlier. As well, German and French inflation numbers remained weak.

The US dollar has posted slight gains on Monday, as  trades in the mid-102 range late in the European session. On the release front, there is only one US release on Monday, NAHB Housing Market Index. The markets are not expecting any change from the previous release. Japan starts off the week with no releases on the schedule.
With the US continuing to suffer from low inflation levels, markets expectations have been low for key inflation indicators. On Friday, PPI, the primary gauge of inflation in the manufacturing sector, slipped to 0.1%, down from 0.4% a month earlier. This matched the estimate. Weak inflation is one reason why the Federal Reserve is in no rush to raise interest rates, as low inflation points to slack in the economy. On the manufacturing front, the Empire State Manufacturing Index plunged to 14.3 points, down from 23.6 points in the previous release. This marked a three-month low and was well of the estimate of 20.3 points.

Thursday, August 14, 2014

AUD/USD

AUD/USD has edged higher on Thursday, as the pair trades in the low-0.93 range early in the North American session. On the release front, Australian MI Inflation Expectations dropped to 3.1% in July. In the US, Unemployment Claims climbed to 311 thousand, above expectations.
In the US, Unemployment Claims fell short of expectations. The indicator climbed to 311 thousand, marking a six-week high. The estimate stood at 307 thousand. Employment indicators are under the market microscope, as the strength of the labor market is one of the most important factors influencing the Federal Reserve regarding the timing of an interest rate hike. A rate increase is expected by mid-2015, but stronger economic data, especially on the employment front, could hasten a move by the Fed. Earlier in the week, JOLTS Job Openings hit its highest level in 13 years, although it too missed expectations.

Tuesday, August 12, 2014

Gold, USD/CAD and USD/MXN

Gold crossed above the $1300 level last week, climbing as high as $1322 on Friday. The precious metal has benefited as the crises in Ukraine and Iraq have worsened. The US has accused Russia of massing troops on its border with Ukraine, and tensions are high as the EU has slapped stronger sanctions on Russia, while Moscow has retaliated by banning many food imports from the West. In Iraq, Islamic State militants, who have captured large parts of Iraq, have attacked and displaced thousands of ethnic Kurds, which has resulted in a growing humanitarian crisis. US President Barak Obama has authorized air strikes against the militants in order to protect the Kurds and safeguard US interests. The situation in Iraq is volatile and could quickly destabilize even further. In Gaza, a 72-hour ceasefire is holding as negotiations between Israel and Hamas are being conducted in Cairo.

The Japanese yen is flat on Tuesday, as the pair trades slightly above the 102 line late in the European session. In economic news, today’s US highlight is JOLTS Job Openings, with the markets expecting a strong reading. In Japan, Revised Industrial Production posted a sharp decline of 3.4%, well short of expectations. Later in the day, we’ll get a look at GDP, one of the most important economic indicators, as well as the minutes of the last BOJ policy meeting.
Is the Japanese manufacturing sector in trouble? Japanese manufacturing indicators continue to post declines this week. Tertiary Industry Activity came in at -0.1%, short of the estimate of a 0.2% gain. Revised Industrial Production dropped 3.4% last month, its steepest fall since October 2012. Meanwhile, markets eyes on Japanese GDP, which will be released later on Tuesday. The markets are braced for a decline of 1.7%, in Q2, which would mark the first drop in economic activity since Q4 of 2012. Traders should be prepared for the yen to lose ground if GDP posts a weak reading.

 USD/CAD and USD/MXN are trading as a Nafta bloc as the Canadian dollar and Mexican peso take their cue from the greenback, says Camilla Sutton, chief currency strategist at Scotiabank. The pairs tend to trade in tandem when the US is the "epicenter," she says. "Right now, we have that because we have the improvement in U.S. data spurring a tremendous focus on the Fed and when they will start to enter a hiking cycle."

Monday, August 11, 2014

The Japanese yen

Capital markets continue to look for interest rate clues and the central bank in the pole position  the Bank of England (BoE)  could indicate a possible change to these seemingly uniform monetary policies. The pound is floundering just below 1.6800 level in quiet trade. Though there are no central bank rate announcements due, the market will get to hear from BoE Governor Mark Carney midweek. On Wednesday, the BoE will publish its forecasts for growth and inflation and investors will be focused on the timing for the U.K.’s first post-crisis rate hike. If the BoE happens to lower its expectation of slack in the U.K. economy it could be supportive of sterling.
The Japanese yen is listless on Monday, as the pair trades slightly above the 104 line in the European session. On the release front, Tertiary Industry Activity disappointed, coming in at -0.1% in July. Consumer Confidence showed little change, missing expectations. In the US, there are no economic releases to start off the week. The sole US event on Monday is a speech by Federal Reserve Governor Stanley Fischer, who will speak at a conference in Tokyo.
Japanese releases started off the week with disappointing numbers. Tertiary Industry Activity, an important manufacturing indicator, posted a decline of 0.1%, short of the estimate of a 0.2% gain. This weak reading was a sharp drop from the strong gain of 0.9% a month earlier. Elsewhere, Consumer Confidence came in at 41.5 points, short of the forecast of 42.3 points. The good news is that the indicator has moved upwards for three consecutive months. We’ll get a look at the BOJ minutes on Tuesday.

Friday, August 8, 2014

Trading Mistakes and Traps

As traders are taking any buy or sell areas  in markets, they make sure to know where price is with regard to the larger time frame supply  demand curve. Whether you trade Stocks, Futures, Forex, or Options, understand that behind all the candles on your screen in all these markets are people and their emotions. Most will fall for the emotional breakout trading traps while others will get paid from them. In short, instead of entering the market on the initial move higher or lower from a level, enter on the first pullback into the fresh supply or demand level. This is one of the most common mistakes many stock traders make and a very easy one to correct. The reason traders are concerned about this index is that it is comprised of small cap companies that generally do not have international risks for their business.  Without the world wide income, they are more responsive to changes in the United States economy and can be a better barometer for the make up of our US economy and markets.  When this index is not doing good, it is a bad sign for the stock market as a whole.

Friday, August 1, 2014

GBP/USD Daily

 GBP/USD   Daily
13::45 GMT - New reaction low at 1.6814 so far today before bounce.  Daily indicators are at their most oversold level in the last 18  months or so so we should see a recovery attempt soon. Next lower sup. is at 1.6785. Initial res. is at 1.6865/70 then at today's high at 1.6893.N.I.
R5: 1.7060~ * 23-Jul sell break
R4: 1.7   25, 28-Jul highs
R3: 1.696   25-Jul low
R2: 1.6926 * Thurs high
R1: 1.6893   today high
S1: 1.6814   today low
S2: 1.6785 * 12-Jun low
S3: 1.6740~   10, 11-Jun lows

Canadian dollar,USD/CAD

The Canadian dollar continues to travel south, as USD/CADÂ trades in the low-1.09 range on Friday. In the US, the markets will have plenty of data to sort through, with three key events later in the day – Nonfarm Employment Change, Unemployment Rate and ISM Manufacturing PMI. We’ll also get a look at consumer confidence levels, with the release of UoM Consumer Sentiment. There are no Canadian releases on Friday.
Although the US jobs report disappointed, it's not enough to stall the greenback's rally and the market is eyeing C$1.1000 as a key level on , says Blake Jespersen, managing director of foreign exchange at BMO Capital Markets. "I think we'll see a lot of hedging activity at 1.10. That seems to be where a lot of the Canadian exporters are targeting." First though, the pair will have to breach the C$1.0950 barrier. Jespersen says the "overwhelming theme" at the moment is to buy USD/CAD on dips. He pegs support for the pair at 1.0880. USD/CAD last at 1.0906, little changed from yesterday's close.