EUR/USD 11/26

The euro could fall to its Nov. 14 low of $1.0990 in coming days due to a lack of positive catalysts, ING says. The currency is "now heavily testing the $1.10 support" level despite data Monday showing improved German business confidence in November, which has "added to signs of a bottoming out" in Europe's largest economy, Francesco Pesole, FX strategist at ING, says. The Ifo Institute said Monday that its measure of German business confidence rose to 95.0 this month from an upwardly revised 94.7 in October. "We suspect this week's agenda does not offer enough positive euro catalysts to avert a EUR/USD move to the 1.0990 Nov. 14 low

CRUDE OIL 11/25

CRUDE OIL prices rose toward the end of last week and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) touched the highest since September 23 on Friday. Expectations are still high that OPEC and its allies will extend the current production caps at the December 5-6 meeting, though doubts exist that deeper cuts will be announced. Certainly Russia has dragged its heels when considering cutting production.

China’s apparent crude oil demand rose 7.3% in October from a year earlier to just above 13 million barrels per day (bpd), according to Bloomberg calculations based on data from China’s Customs General Administration. The number of US oil rigs in production fell for a fifth straight week last week and are now at the lowest since end-March 2017.

Sterling 11/25

Sterling would remain stuck in a range between $1.25 and $1.30 under a hung parliament following the December 12 U.K. general election until some political clarity emerges, UBS Global Wealth Management says. "If the election results in a hung parliament, we expect Article 50 will be extended again, followed by a referendum," UBS analysts say in a note. While the Conservatives are leading opinion polls ahead of the election, these should "always be taken not with a grain of salt, but a truck-load," they say. The first past-the-post constituency-based system in the U.K. "doesn't lend itself well to making predictions based on national vote shares." GBP/USD rises 0.3% to 1.2871.(

Major Pairs 11/24

USD/JPY (last 108.72): The pair, as shown on a daily chart, has managed to avoid posting a deeper consolidation. Currently it is trading at levels around the ascending 20-day moving average while being supported by the 50-day moving average (also positively sloped). Key support remains at 108.00. Unless this level is breached, the pair stands chances of revisiting 109.50 and 110.65 on the upside. Alternatively, below 108.00, expect a further decline toward 107.00 on the downside.

EUR/USD (last 1.1021): The pair retreated after touching the declining 20-day moving average. Besides, the bearish cross between 20-day and 50-day moving averages has been identified. The relative strength index has struck against its neutrality level at 50 and is turning downward. Therefore, as long as 1.1090 is not surpassed, expect a drop with targets at 1.0990 and 1.0940 in extension. Alternatively, breaking above 1.1090 would bring another up leg with 1.1185 and 1.1280 as targets.
EUR/USD
1st support - 1.0990 (moderate)
1st resistance - 1.1090 (major)
2nd support - 1.0940 (moderate)
2nd resistance - 1.1185 (major)

GBP/USD
1st support - 1.2760 (major)
1st resistance - 1.3000 (major)
2nd support - 1.2575 (major)
2nd resistance - 1.3175 (major)

GBP/USD (last 1.2848): The pair remains trading within a consolidation range after a recent rally. Currently, support is provided by the ascending 50-day moving average, while the relative strength index stays above the neutrality level of 50, signaling that the bullish bias persists. As long as the key support at 1.2760 holds, the pair should advance to 1.3000 and 1.3175. Alternatively, a break below 1.2760 would trigger a pull-back to 1.2575.

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Sterling falls 11/22

Sterling falls after IHS Markit's first "flash" version of its U.K. purchasing managers' surveys showed a contraction in both services and manufacturing activity in November. The manufacturing purchasing mangers' index fell to 48.3 in November from 49.6 in October, with a reading below 50 indicating a contraction. The services PMI dropped to a 40-month low of 48.6 from 50.0, below expectations for an unchanged reading. "With an upcoming general election adding to Brexit-related uncertainty about the outlook, it's no surprise to see U.K. businesses reporting falling output and orders in November," Markit's Chris Williamson says. GBP/USD is last down 0.3% at 1.2874, down from 1.2899 beforehand. EUR/GBP is last up 0.3% at 0.8593, from 0.8571 beforehand.(

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Gold 11/21

Gold traders are in limbo amid trade uncertainty.  The risks of a collapse for a phase-one trade deal are rising and gold can’t muster up a rally.  A firm bottom was put in place last week for gold, but traders are largely skeptical that pullback has run its course.  If gold does not recapture the $1485 an ounce level by the end of the week, we could sellers take control. 

The euro

The euro could rise to $1.19 by the end of 2020, from just $1.1056 currently, as the dollar is likely to weaken, UBS Global Wealth Management says. "In recent years, high interest rates, risk aversion stemming from the downturn in global trade and support from earnings repatriation have supported the dollar," UBS analysts say in their year-ahead outlook.

British pound

 British pound remains within a bearish channel and is capped by its declining 50-period moving average on 30-minute chart, currently at $1.2929. Moreover, the 14-period RSI is standing within its selling area between 50 and 30, confirming the bearish bias. As a consequence, below horizontal resistance at $1.2930, further weakness is expected toward previous overlap at $1.2895 and toward strong horizontal support at $1.2870 in extension. A third target is set at $1.2850.

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AUD/JPY 11/19

Symbol : AUDJPY

Direction : Identified time : 2019-11-20 01:31 GMT Breakout price : 73.812 Forecast price : 73.59 Forecast pips : 22 Probability : 60.12 %

Pattern : Triangle Interval : 15 Min Pattern : Triangle Interval : 30 Min Pattern : Support Interval : 15 Min Pattern : Support Interval : 15 Min

outlook for EUR/USD 11/19

The euro is likely to strengthen against the dollar if the eurozone economy rebounds faster than the U.S., J.P. Morgan says. The outlook for EUR/USD depends on the "growth differential between the U.S. and Europe along with more clarity on fiscal spending and on the political front," Thushka Maharaj, strategist at J.P. Morgan, says. Increased spending by euro-area governments that "supports long-term economic growth" of the eurozone would be positive for the euro, she says. For now the euro "remains range-bound" around $1.10 due to "opposing forces" such as the Federal Reserve cutting rates, which means less support for dollar, counteracted by weak growth outside of the U.S. hurting demand for the safe-haven currency. EUR/USD falls 0.1% to 1.1066.

Gold 11/18

Gold still looks vulnerable as it seems very likely we will see the US and China finally agree upon the final parts of a phase-one deal.  With Brexit and the trade war about to deliver potentially two big risk-on scenarios, gold selling could get ugly if we see a breach of last week’ low.  Since the end of the summer, gold was ready for a pullback, not the beginning of a bearish trend.

GBP/USD 11/18

Sterling rises to its highest level against the euro in six months after U.K. Prime Minister Boris Johnson said all candidates from his Conservative Party for the Dec. 12 general election have committed to back his Brexit deal and as opinion polls showed increased support for his party. The U.K. would still need to negotiate a trade deal with the European Union if lawmakers vote for Johnson's withdrawal agreement but for now "any clarity on what will happen seems to be good for the pound short-term, even if in the long run it's bad for the country," says Marshall Gittler at ACLS Global. EUR/GBP falls 0.4% to a low of 0.8534, according to FactSet. GBP/USD rises 0.5% to a two-week high of 1.2962.

4.76 billion Canadian dollars 11/15

Foreigners acquired a net 4.76 billion Canadian dollars ($3.59 billion) in Canadian securities in September, Statistics Canada said Friday. In the previous month, non-residents bought a net C$4.62 billion in Canadian securities, revised down slightly from an earlier estimate.
Meanwhile, Canadian investors sold a net C$2.39 billion in foreign securities in September, led by a decline in U.S. securities holdings.
As a result, international transactions in securities generated a net inflow of funds in the Canadian economy in September of C$7.16 billion.

EUR/AUD 11/13

	The following assumptions that have been made: - At least 20 pip forecast - The key level and chart pattern were at most 5 candles apart at time of identification

	Symbol : EURAUD

Direction : Identified time : 2019-11-14 02:00 GMT Breakout price : 1.61705 Forecast price : 1.62018 Forecast pips : 31 Probability : 61.69 %

Pattern : Ascending Triangle Interval : 60 Min Pattern : Resistance Interval : 60 Min

US dollar 11/12

The US dollar edges higher as investors looked ahead to President Trump's speech at the Economic Club of New York where he is expected to discuss trade issues. Trump could confirm a delay on tariffs on European autos and progress on talks with China, analysts said. The dollar has tended to strengthen during periods where trade tensions have been elevated and global growth has slowed. The WSJ Dollar Index, which measures the US currency against a basket of 16 others, rose less than 0.1% to a recent 91.09.

MAJOR PAIRS 11/10

 
EUR/USD 
1st support - 1.0940 (major) 
1st resistance - 1.1120 (major) 
2nd support - 1.0870 (major) 
2nd resistance - 1.1185 (major) 
 

EUR/USD (last 1.1019): The pair has closed below the key support at 1.1035 turning the short-term outlook bearish. In fact, it has formed a bearish pattern of "double tops" while striking the lower Bollinger band calling for further downside. A pull-back to the first downside target at 1.0940 would open a path toward 1.0870. Only a return to the key resistance at 1.1120 would trigger a rebound to 1.1185 on the upside.

 
AUD/USD 
1st support - 0.6795 (major) 
1st resistance - 0.6930 (major) 
2nd support - 0.6720 (major) 
2nd resistance - 0.6975 (major) 
 

AUD/USD (last 0.6857): The pair has retreated from a recent high of 0.6929 while trading at levels around the 20-day moving average. Short-term bullishness is still maintained by the 50-day moving average. In case the pair emerges to the upside after completing the current consolidation phase, it should revisit 0.6930 and 0.6975 on the upside. However, a break below the key support at 0.6795 (around the 50-day moving average) would call for a further decline toward 0.6720 on the downside.

 
NZD/USD 
1st support - 0.6275 (major) 
1st resistance - 0.6445 (major) 
2nd support - 0.6200 (major) 
2nd resistance - 0.6540 (moderate) 
 

NZD/USD (last 0.6329): The pair maintains a bullish bias above the key support at 0.6275. In fact, it has stabilized after reaching a rising trend line drawn from October, and support is also provided by the 50-day moving average. Unless the key support at 0.6275 is violated, the pair should proceed to 0.6445 and 0.6540 on the upside. Alternatively, a break below 0.6275 would trigger a decline to 0.6200.

 
GBP/USD 
1st support - 1.2575 (major) 
1st resistance - 1.3000 (major) 
2nd support - 1.2400 (moderate) 
2nd resistance - 1.3175 (moderate) 
 

GBP/USD (last 1.2790): The pair remains on the upside despite a modest pull-back. Currently, it is trading at levels above the ascending 50-day moving average, while the relative strength index stays above the neutrality level of 50, signaling a bullish bias. As long as the key support at 1.2575 holds, the pair should target 1.3000 and 1.3175 on the upside. Alternatively, below 1.2575, expect a return to 1.2400 on the downside.

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British pound 11/10

The British pound is up more than 6% from recent multiyear lows, while a rebound in China's yuan has lifted a broad range of currencies. Emerging-market equities have also bounced back from a steep selloff earlier in the year, and a rise in oil is leading a rally in commodities that has buoyed everything from copper to coffee.

Driving the gains are signs of better-than-expected outcomes to several issues that have weighed on markets for most of the year. The U.S. and China are approaching an initial accord on trade; the world's biggest central banks have slashed interest rates to curtail a manufacturing slowdown; and the odds of a disorderly U.K. exit from the European Union are declining.

Coupled with a climb in U.S. shares that has pushed major indexes to fresh highs, the moves highlight investors' sudden optimism after months of caution.

EUR/USD 11/8

The euro should drift lower against the dollar as uncertainty over a U.S.-China trade deal remains high and global economic growth is subdued, says Gaetan Peroux at UBS. Eurozone retail sales data for September and final purchasing managers' surveys for October "generally surprised to the upside" but have "inspired little belief that a euro rebound is around the corner," he says. "Still, delicate green economic shoots are visible; if they continue to sprout, EUR/USD may not be too far from the bottom." EUR/USD is last down 0.2% at 1.1021.

French industrial production

France isn't insulated from the global trade and industrial weakness, says Oxford Economics following weak French industrial production and trade data in 3Q. French industrial production rose 0.3% in September, figures from statistics showed Friday, reversing a 0.9 decline in the previous month. But over the third quarter, French production declined 1.2% from the previous quarter, on par with the losses seen in Germany. Nevertheless, French payrolls rose 0.3% in the period, which according to Oxford Economics shows that the country's domestic demand remains even more resilient than in Germany.

FX market 11/7

 

The FX market appears to be showing signs of life with trade optimism spurring a rise in the dollar against developed market currencies whiles the dollar is falling gently against regional Asian currencies. The development is hardly surprising as a partial trade dispute resolution should add fuel to the US economy and regional Asian ones. EUR/USD fell 0.50% to 1.0780, USD/JPY rose 0.55% to 109.10, USD/CHF rose 0.50% to 0.9910 and NZD/USD fell 0.40% to 0.6375. The AUD was unchanged at 0.6895, balanced between a stronger greenback and trade hopes spurring Australian growth with its high beta to Asia. The USD/CNH has been steadily falling over the last week from 7.1000 and yesterday broke 7.0000. There followed a sharp spike to the early August lows around 6.9850 before an equally violent rally back to 7.0050. The price action had a definite stop-loss selling look about it once 7.0000 cracked. The Forexmentor Live! interactive training in trading Forex includes unlimited access to the live trading classroom, detailed tutorial videos used in trading client accounts, a step-by-step guide to the LPT Method, technical analysis, detailed presentations throughout the day, live Trade Alerts, access to Professional Fund Managers, access to live news feeds in real time and so much more.

Gold 11/5

Gold has stumbled once again just as it looked poised to test its October highs around $1,520, leaving us in consolidation mode. Still, pressures are building from below so just because the breakout is taking its time, it still looks increasingly likely to come to the upside.

A firmer dollar at the start of the week naturally didn’t help matters and took some of the wind out of gold’s sails. The greenback has been softer over the last month though as sentiment and trade headlines have improved.

profit-taking in sterling

The Bank of England could trigger profit-taking in sterling if it hints at cutting interest rates Thursday, FXTM says. The BOE is expected to keep its base rate unchanged at 0.75%, according to a WSJ poll of analysts, so the market's focus is on whether Governor Mark Carney provides any clues on future changes at a press conference after the central bank releases its rate decision, meeting minutes and latest economic forecasts. "Any signs of the BOE indicating an easing of policy will likely lead to profit taking in the pound which has rallied more than 700 pips since October 10 [when GBP/USD began the day just above 1.22]," Hussein Sayed at FXTM says. GBP/USD is last down 0.2% to 1.2916 and EUR/GBP is rises 0.1% to 0.8635.

The GBP/USD

The pound should range between $1.26 and $1.32 until there is clarity on the outcome of the U.K. general election on Dec. 12, UBS analysts say in a note. "The U.K. is facing what feels like the most unpredictable election in living memory," the analysts say. "As things stand, public opinion points to [U.K. Prime Minister] Boris Johnson's election gamble paying off, but as we learned in 2017, much can change as the campaign unfolds." In the meantime, UBS retains its "bullish" medium- to long-term view on the GBP/USD as no-deal Brexit risk is "out of focus for the time being." The GBP/USD falls 0.2% to 1.2912.

The dollar was buffeted by US data

The dollar was buffeted by US data and trade comments on Friday but anded only slightly lower as the week’s dust settled. The dollar index fell 0.15% to 97.20, which belied the intra-day volatility. In other words, it was a typical Non-Farm Payrolls Friday; lots of noise and more than a few tears; but very little change once the dust has settled. The US/CNY daily mid-point has been set at 7.0382, almost unchanged from Friday’s, highlighting the low net change in the dollar basket on Friday. The dollar is virtually unchanged against the majors this morning with FX volumes muted by the Japan holiday today. Despite this, regional currencies should trade positively in today’s session, buoyed by the positive noises coming from the US-China trade talks, which is by far the most significant macro-economic event risk for the region in 2019.