Monday, October 20, 2014

Japanese yen is steady on Monday, as USD/JPY

The Japanese yen is steady on Monday, as USD/JPY trades just below the 107 line. It’s a quiet start to the week, with no US or Japanese releases on Monday. In Japan, BoJ Governor Haruhiko Kuroda reiterated the central bank’s policy stance.
USD/JPY ratio is showing little movement on Monday. This is not consistent with the pair’s movement, as the yen has posted gains against the dollar. The ratio has a majority of long positions, indicative of trader bias towards the dollar reversing direction and moving higher.
On Monday, BoJ Governor Haruhiko Kuroda stated that Japan’s economy continues to improve modestly, although consumer demand is down after the consumption tax hike in April. The BoJ would prefer to stay on the sidelines, but there has been talk that the central bank could step in with additional stimulus if the economy takes a turn for the worse. Such a move would weigh on the already weak Japanese yen.

Friday, October 17, 2014

Dollar up 0.2% against yen at Y106.50. Euro down 0.1% to $1.2795.

 USD this week's selloff in the dollar, investors of all stripes remain heavily positioned with bets on the greenback's rise. The buck may well see another push lower to reach some degree of equilibrium for the market. "Given the positioning, the dollar will weaken more on negative data surprises than it will strengthen on positive data surprises," says Mark McCormick, FX strategist at Credit Agricole. Also, voices from the Fed are becoming more dovish of late, so more investors will likely hesitate before putting on, or adding to, dollar-long positions over next two weeks until FOMC. Dollar up 0.2% against yen at Y106.50. Euro down 0.1% to $1.2795.

Thursday, October 16, 2014


 USD/CHF  Daily
13::05 GMT -Today's recovery has been capped so far in the 0.9480/00   res. band. Sup. should now be around 0.9430 while the more important  level is at 0.9395/00. A break here would swing the bias back to the downside. Higher res. is at 0.9520.N.I.
R4: 0.9592/00  8/10 Oct highs
R3: 0.9574 * Mon high
R2: 0.9520  intraday level
R1: 0.9480/00  intraday level
S1: 0.9430~  intraday level
S2: 0.9395/00  intraday level
S3: 0.9358 * Wed low
S4: 0.9300 * 16 Sep low

Tuesday, October 14, 2014

AUD/USD ratio has a majority of long positions

AUD/USD ratio has a majority of long positions, indicative of trader bias towards AUD/USD reversing directions and resuming its rally against the greenback.
The Australian dollar has edged lower on Tuesday, as AUD/USD trades in the mid-0.87 line in the European session. The currency started off the week in fine fashion, gaining almost 100 points on Monday. In economic news, Australian NAB Business Confidence dropped to 5 points in September. Later in the day, we’ll get a look at Westpac Consumer Sentiment. In the US, there was just one release, as NFIB Small Business Index missed the estimate.
Australian NAB Business Confidence continues to slip, falling to 5 points in September release.  This was the key indicator’s weakest showing since March. Weak business confidence could translate into decreased spending and hiring by the private sector, which would be very bad news for the economy and could hurt the Australian dollar.
•AUD/USD posted gains in the Asian session, breaking above resistance at 0.8763. The pair then retracted, and has remained steady in the European and North American sessions.
•On the upside, 0.8763 was breached earlier but recovered. It remains a weak line. There is stronger resistance at 0.8220.
•0.8668 is providing support.
•Current range: 0.8668 to 0.8763

Gold for December

Bullion erased this year’s gains earlier this month as signs of an improving U.S. economy added to the case for higher borrowing costs. Rising interest rates reduce gold’s allure because the metal generally only offers investors returns through price gains, while a stronger dollar typically cuts demand for a store of value.
“With uncertainty about the timing of the Fed’s rate hike now starting to show, we feel that equities and the dollar would continue on the defensive, which would then underpin gold,” Abhishek Chinchalkar, an analyst at Mumbai-based AnandRathi Commodities Ltd., said in a report today. “Gains could be capped around $1,250 an ounce if crude continues under pressure.”
Gold for December delivery added 0.5 percent to $1,236.10 an ounce by 7:36 a.m. on the Comex in New York. It reached $1,238 yesterday, the highest since Sept. 17. Gold for immediate delivery was little changed at $1,235.81

Monday, October 13, 2014


 USD/CHF  Daily
13::55 GMT -Mkt. has dropped back a bit further last several hours.    overnight. We still think it needs to hold 0.9500 or better or last   week's low at 0.9467 is likely to come under pressure. If the latter fails, next sup. is at 0.9449/56. Res. is at today's    high at 0.9574. N.I.
R5: 0.9675  intraday level
R4: 0.9635  intraday level
R3: 0.9624 * Tues high
R2: 0.9592/00  Wed/Fri high
R1: 0.9574  today high
S1: 0.9500~  intraday level
S2: 0.9467  Thurs low
S3: 0.9449/56 * 25/6 Sep lows
S4: 0.9420  break area
S5: 0.9400  intraday level

Saturday, October 11, 2014

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