Friday, October 31, 2014

Short term traders especially tend to lose money

Traders need to know that market makers are smart and most of the time they can see the stops.  They do know that most traders will place stops around whole, and they will hit the stops to shake you out.  You should also place stops close to supply and demand areas, not at supply and demand for the same reason. Most new traders treat the charts the opposite of how they treat their normal trading. Many try to buy things after they have already gone up in price, where stock are to high priced, and look to sell things after they have gone down in price where things are cheap. Every other buying or selling transaction in their lives is done properly, but trading is where things get messed up.
As the new trader is sitting at his or her computer trying to find good trades either in the stock or forex markets, they are examining charts and trying to figure out what to do: buy, sell, or wait. When a currency pair has  moved up, meaning a series of green candles has already formed, they can eliminate at least one of their options. You are too late to buy. Traders could wait at this time, or they could choose to sell in a quality supply zone. When a currency pair or stock has already moved down, thus a series of red candles has formed, the pair is at a lower price. New traders can’t sell cheap things, so one choice is eliminated.
Stop losses when trading

EUR/USD continues to lose ground on Friday

EUR/USD continues to lose ground on Friday, as the pair trades in the mid-1.25 range in the European session. On the release front, it’s a busy day in the Eurozone and the US. In the Eurozone, German Retail Sales posted a sharp decline of 3.2%. French Consumer Spending came in at -0.8%. In the US, today’s highlight is Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment. The markets are expecting the indicator’s upward trend to continue, with the estimate standing at 86.4 points.
It’s been a rough week for German releases, as the Eurozone’s largest economy continues to struggle. On Friday, Retail Sales were dismal, plunging by 3.5%. This marked the sharpest decline since October 2007. The markets had expected a decline of 0.8%. Consumer Climate and CPI softened in September, although Unemployment Change was better than expected. Meanwhile, Eurozone CPI edged upwards to 0.4%, matching the forecast. Core CPI and the Unemployment Rate remained unchanged, at 0.7% and 11.5% respectively.
EUR/USD weakened late in the Asian session. The euro is stable in European trade.
1.2688 remains a strong resistance line.
1.2518 is an immediate support level. 1.2407 is stronger.
Current range: 1.2518 to 1.2688
EUR/USD ratio is pointing to gains in long positions on Friday, continuing the trend seen a day earlier. This is not consistent with the movement of the pair, as the euro continues to lose ground. The ratio has a majority of long positions, indicative of trader bias towards the euro reversing direction and moving higher.

Thursday, October 30, 2014


 GBP/JPY  Daily
15::20 GMT - The 2/3 day range below 174.75/ 175~ continues into this  pm., pegging GBP to the midpoint of the Sep-Oct decline. At the 50%   mark, Oct's rally is stil potentially a corrective rally; we need to see acceptance above 175.00 to turn bullish (at     least into 177.50/ 178.00.)  [NR]
R5: 180.66 ** 19-Sep YTD high
R4: 178.70   23-Sep high
R3: 178.10~ * fr 26-Sep highs
R2: 175.00~ * Jan & Jul highs
R1: 174.75   fr 28-Oct hjghs
S1: 173.65   Tues low
S2: 171.02   22-Oct low
S3: 170.15   17-Oct low
S4: 168.00 * 15-Oct low
S5: 167.72 * 18-Mar low


USD/JPY has moved upwards on Thursday, as the US dollar has posted broad gains following the FOMC policy statement on Wednesday. In the European session, the pair is trading just above the 109 line. On the release front, there are two major US events -GDP and Unemployment Claims. Both indicators are expected to post strong figures, so we could see the dollar post gains in the North American session. As well, Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen will address an event in Washington. In Japan, today’s highlights are Tokyo CPI and Household Spending.
USD/JPY posted gains in the Asian session. The pair is choppy in the European session.
109.82 is the next resistance line.
108.58 has reverted to a support line after the yen lost ground on Wednesday. 107.68 is next.
Current range: 108.58 to 109.82
USD/JPY ratio is pointing to gains in short positions on Thursday, continuing the direction seen a day earlier. This is not consistent with the pair’s movement, as the dollar continues to post gains. The ratio has a majority of long positions, indicative of trader bias towards the dollar moving higher.

Wednesday, October 29, 2014


 USD/CHF  Daily
13::20 GMT - Flat trade continues after low at 0.9443 Tues. However, westill see risk to the downside with next minor sup.  around 0.9420    while the more important level is at 0.9396. Bounce off Tues low was limited to 0.9480 and this is first res. for the     balance of the day.  N.I.
R5: 0.9574 * 13 Oct high
R4: 0.9558/63  15/23 Oct high
R3: 0.9520/25  intraday level
R2: 0.9511  Tues high
R1: 0.9480  intraday level
S1: 0.9443  Tues low
S2: 0.9420  intraday level
S3: 0.9396  16 Oct low
S4: 0.9358 * 15 Oct low

Tuesday, October 28, 2014

dollar slid lower against the yen

The dollar slid lower against the yen and the euro Tuesday after a measure of U.S. manufacturing fell for a second consecutive month, suggesting growth may be slower in the third quarter and interest rates may stay lower for longer.
The dollar fell to JPY107.78 from JPY108.12 ahead of the data, trading flat early in the Americas session. The euro rose to $1.2752, from $1.2710 beforehand, up 0.4% on the day.
Purchases of durable goods slid 1.3% in September from one month earlier to $241.63 billion, the second straight drop, the Commerce Department said. Economists predicted orders would rise by 0.7% in September.
The dollar's moves on second-tier data reflects the market's nervousness about the health of the U.S. economy and its effects on interest rates. Investors had been buying the U.S. currency in preparation for higher interest rates, which would boost yields on dollar-denominated assets. With the Federal Reserve meeting this week, investors are less certain.

Monday, October 27, 2014


 USD/JPY  Daily
13::00 GMT - Slow trade back this am. has covered Fri.'s range/ tests  Fri.'s low, with the USD not far off 107.50/ recent highs & a test of the bullish separation after Oct's big 105.50 test. Assuming the USD holds this 107.50/ 108.00 area s/t, next upsideis to 109.00/ back to the mid-Oct selling break.  [NR]
R5: 110.00-08 ** 1-Oct excs YTD high
R4: 109.90   3-Oct high
R3: 109.25   7-Oct high
R2: 108.75   8-Oct high
R1: 108.35~ * fr 23-Oct highs
S1: 107.40~   mid-Oct highs
S2: 106.75   22_Oct low
S3: 106.22   21-Oct low
S4: 105.45 * Jan high
S5: 105.20 * 15-Oct low