Tuesday, November 25, 2014

EUR/USD is very quiet on Tuesday

EUR/USD is very quiet on Tuesday, as the pair trades in the mid-1.24 range in the European session. On the release front, German GDP posted a weak gain of 0.1%, matching the forecast. In the US, there are two key events on the schedule – Preliminary GDP and CB Consumer Confidence.
All eyes are on US GDP for Q3, which will be released later on Tuesday. The markets are expecting a strong gain of 3.3%. This is not as strong as the Q2 release, which posted a gain of 4.2%. If the indicator meets or exceeds expectations, we could see the US dollar post gains in the North American session.
The euro hasn’t had much to cheer about lately, and the currency took a tumble on Friday, losing over 150 points. This was a result of remarks from ECB head Mario Draghi, who warned that that inflation expectations were declining to levels that were very low and said the ECB is ready to expand its stimulus program. Deep interest rate cuts haven’t boosted growth or inflation, so the ECB has reached deeper into its toolbox and purchased covered bonds and asset-backed securities. So far, these purchases have been from the private sector, but the ECB could decide to expand these purchases to government bonds, known has quantitative easing (QE). However, there is strong resistance to QE from national central banks, such as the powerful German Bundesbank.
EUR/USD has showed little movement in the Asian and European sessions. The pair touched a high of 1.2444 early in the European session.
1.2518 is a strong resistance line.
1.2407 is a weak support level. 1.2286 is stronger. EUR/USD ratio is close to a split of long and short positions. This is indicative of a lack of trader bias with regard to what direction to expect from the pair.

Monday, November 24, 2014

How to find a good stock to trade

Traders know that most stocks, ETF's and markets are not created equally. With all the choices some under lying products might present better money making trades then others. The trick is to make a custom list that can be traded to make money. Traders need to create a a symbol list that you can monitor with out creating a new list everyday. By having a list of stock you can watch you will get use to knowing when one of them is right for a trade. Most of the major brokers will have a trading platform where you can keep a stock list and it will up date daily.
You can set stocks that have good daily volume and price movements with support and resistance areas on your charts. The brokers will have a stock screener where you can search for stocks that you are interested in trading. You should pay close attention to stock market news which can show you hot stocks that are being traded before they cool off. Liquidity is very important so if you do make a trade it will be easier to get out of the stock when you decide to sell. The higher the volume the narrower the bid and ask the more liquid the stock. This will help you get trading faster and you will become more efficient at finding stocks.
How to find a good stock to trade

XAU/USD is showing limited movement

Gold has posted modest gains on Thursday, recovering losses sustained a day earlier. The spot price is trading at $1196 per ounce in the European session. On the release front, it’s a very quiet day, with only one event, Flash Services PMI. No change is expected in this reading.
The euro hasn’t had much to cheer about lately, and the currency took a tumble on Friday, losing over 150 points. This was a result of remarks from ECB head Mario Draghi, who warned that that inflation expectations were declining to levels that were very low and said the ECB is ready to expand its stimulus program. Deep interest rate cuts haven’t boosted growth or inflation, so the ECB has reached deeper into its toolbox and purchased covered bonds and asset-backed securities. So far, these purchases have been from the private sector, but the ECB could decide to expand these purchases to government bonds, known has quantitative easing (QE). However, there is strong resistance to QE from national central banks, such as the powerful German Bundesbank.
XAU/USD is showing limited movement as the pair continues to trade close to the 1200 line.
On the downside, 1175 is providing strong support.
1200 has reverted to a resistance role as the pair has posted small losses.
Current range: 1175 to 1200. XAU/USD ratio is pointing to gains in short positions on Monday. This is consistent with the pair’s movement, as gold has posted small losses. The ratio has a majority of long positions, indicative of trader bias in favor of gold moving to higher levels.

Thursday, November 20, 2014

USD/CHF Daily

 USD/CHF  Daily
14::00 GMT - Mkt. is little changed overall but action has been very choppy today. Res. is still in the 0.9600/10 band followed by 0.9625. To the downside, close sup. is a touch higher at 0.9550. If this subsequently fails, a drop below 0.9530 should   follow.N.I.
R5: 0.9700 * 11 Nov high
R4: 0.9688  Fri high
R3: 0.9654  Tues high
R2: 0.9625  intraday level
R1: 0.9600/10  intraday level
S1: 0.9530  Wed low
S2: 0.9510  intraday level
S3: 0.9475  intraday level
S4: 0.9439 * 29 Oct low

Monday, November 17, 2014

USD/CHF Daily

 USD/CHF  Daily
14::35 GMT - Recovery is continuing with prices recently moving above  the 0.9620 res. There is some res. around current levels (0.9635)  while the next significant level is 0.9688. First sup. should be a bit higher now at 0.9590/00.  N.I.
R4: 0.9751 * Jul 13 high
R3: 0.9740  7 Nov high
R2: 0.9700 * Tues high
R1: 0.9688  Fri high
S1: 0.9590/00  intraday level
S2: 0.9572  14 Nov low
S3: 0.9555  today low
S4: 0.9539 * 30 Oct low
S5: 0.9510  intraday level

Friday, November 14, 2014

EUR/USD Daily

 EUR/USD   Daily
13::35 GMT - Break of the earlier low has seen prices just about reach next sup. band at 1.2393/00. Below here next sup. should come at  1.2380 then 1.2357. Res. is in the 1.2425/40 band. N.I.

R5: 1.2530/40  intraday level
R4: 1.2500/9 * Mon high
R3: 1.2491  Thurs high
R2: 1.2470  today high
R1: 1.2425/40  intraday level
S1: 1.2393  Tues low
S2: 1.2380  intraday level
S3: 1.2357 * 7 Nov low
S4: 1.2345  minor projection

Thursday, November 13, 2014

Japanese yen is showing little movement on Thursday

The Japanese yen is showing little movement on Thursday, as USD/JPY trades in the mid-115 range. On the release front, Japanese Core Machinery Orders posted a strong gain of 2.9%. In the US, Unemployment Claims rose to 290 thousand. Later in the day, Fed Chair Janet Yellen will speak at a conference in Washington hosted by the ECB and Federal Reserve.
US Unemployment Claims has looked solid in recent readings, but the key indicator jumped to 290 thousand, missing the estimate of 282 thousand. This marked a seven-week high for the key indicator. USD/JPY shrugged off the weak reading and continues to show little movement. On Friday, we’ll get a look at US retail and consumer confidence numbers, so we could see some movement from USD/JPY.
USD/JPY tested resistance at 115.75 in the Asian session. The pair is steady in European trade.
On the upside, 115.75 remains under pressure. 116.66 is stronger.
114.65 is providing strong support. USD/JPY is almost unchanged on Thursday. This is consistent with USD/JPY, which has shown little net movement on the day. The ratio currently has a majority of long positions, indicative of trader bias towards the US dollar moving higher.

EUR/USD

It’s been a quiet week for EUR/USD and this lack of activity continues on Thursday, as the pair trades in the mid-1.24 range in the European session. On the release front, French CPI came in at a flat 0.0%, while German CPI slipped to -0.3%. In the US, we’ll get a look at key employment data, with the release of Unemployment Claims and  JOLTS Job Openings. In Washington, Fed Chair Janet Yellen will speak at conference hosted by the ECB and Federal Reserve.
EUR/USD edged upwards in the Asian session. The pair is steady in European trade.
On the downside, 1.2407 remains a weak support line. 1.2286 is next. This line has remained intact since August 2012.
1.2518 is an immediate resistance line.
Current range: 1.2407 to 1.2518 EUR/USD ratio is pointing to gains in long positions on Thursday, reversing the direction seen a day earlier. This is consistent with the pair’s movement, as the euro has posted small gains. The ratio is almost an even split between long and short positions, indicative of a lack of trader bias towards what direction to expect from EUR/USD.

Wednesday, November 12, 2014

Gold rose on Wednesday as the dollar retreated from earlier highs

Gold rose on Wednesday as the dollar retreated from earlier highs, but overall sentiment stayed with the bears as outflows from bullion funds showed no sign of slowing.
Market participants were also digesting news that Swiss regulator FINMA said it found a “clear attempt” to manipulate precious metals benchmarks during its investigation into precious metals and FX trading at UBS.
Holdings in SPDR Gold Trust, the world’s top gold-backed exchange-traded fund, fell 0.12 percent to 724.46 tonnes on Tuesday – a six-year low.
The figures marked the fund’s sixth straight day of outflows. The ETF is seen as a good reflection of market sentiment due to the size of its holdings.
“The overall backdrop is still negative with the dollar tilting towards strength and continued ETF outflows due to continued rises in U.S. stock markets,” Commerzbank analyst Carsten Fritsch said.
He added that subdued physical demand in Asia and a weak technical picture were also darkening the outlook.
Spot gold was up 0.3 percent at $1,167.60 an ounce by 1339 GMT, after gaining 1.2 percent on Tuesday.

Tuesday, November 11, 2014

USD/CHF Daily

 USD/CHF  Daily
13::50 GMT - Mkt. has been a bit higher in earlier trade but the top ofthe 0.9680/00 res. band has held. A subsequent break, if seen, should allow for a retest of the 0.9740 top. Sup., meanwhile, should be around 0.9650 then 0.9613.  N.I.
R5: 0.9898  2 Aug 12 high
R4: 0.9790 * 29 May 13 high
R3: 0.9751 * Jul 13 high
R2: 0.9740  Fri high
R1: 0.9680/00  intraday level
S1: 0.9650  intraday level
S2: 0.9614  Mon low
S3: 0.9600  Thurs low
S4: 0.9578  4 Nov low
S5: 0.9539 * 30 Oct low

EUR/USD is stable on Tuesday

EUR/USD is stable on Tuesday, as the pair trades slightly above the 1.24 line in the European session. On the release front, there are no releases out of the Eurozone, and French banks are closed for Remembrance Day. In the US, banks will be closed for Veterans Day, so traders can expect reduced liquidity in the currency markets. The only release on Tuesday is NFIB Small Business Index, a minor event.
It was a poor start for the Eurozone on Monday. Italian Industrial Production dropped 0.9%, its third decline in three releases. The markets had expected a gain of 0.2%. There was no relief from Eurozone Sentix Investor Confidence, which posted a third straight decline, as investor and analyst sentiment has slipped to very low levels. This poor reading comes as no surprise, as with the Eurozone stuck with low growth, weak inflation and high unemployment. Draghi has lowered interest rates to the bone, but the cuts have not improved the economic situation. The ECB has decided to focus on its balance sheet and has issued long-term loans to banks and purchased covered bonds. The ECB will begin buying asset-backed purchases later this month, which could push down on the struggling euro. However, these moves may not be enough and Draghi may be forced to borrow a page from the book of other central banks and commence quantitative easing, which is the purchase of government securities.EUR/USD has been uneventful in the Asian session. The pair tested support at 1.2407 in European trade.
1.2407 was tested earlier but continues to provide support. 1.2286 is stronger.
1.2518 is a strong resistance line.
Current range: 1.2407 to 1.2518 EUR/USD ratio is pointing to gains in long positions on Tuesday, reversing the direction seen a day earlier. This is not consistent with the pair’s movement, as the euro is almost unchanged on the day. The ratio is close to a split between and short positions, indicative of a lack of trader bias towards what direction to expect from EUR/USD.

Monday, November 10, 2014

USD/JPY trades in the mid-114 range

The Japanese yen is steady on Monday, as USD/JPY trades in the mid-114 range early in the North American session. On the release front, Japanese Current Account will be released later in the day. There are no US releases on Monday.
US Nonfarm Payrolls disappointed on Friday, as the key employment indicator slipped to 214 thousand, well short of the estimate of 235 thousand. On a brighter note, the unemployment rate slipped to 5.8%, its lowest level in six years. On Thursday, Unemployment Claims fell to 278 thousand. This was better than the estimate of 285 thousand and marked a three-week low.
On Thursday, the Bank of Japan released the minutes of its previous policy meeting, which took place earlier in October. That event sent the yen tumbling and the currency has yet to recover. At the meeting, the BoJ surprised the markets by increasing monetary stimulus from JPY 60-70 trillion to 80 trillion per year.
USD/JY lost ground in the Asian session but has recovered in European trade.
114.65 is a weak resistance line. 115.75 is stronger.
113.68 is providing support. 112.94 is next.
Current range: 113.68 to 114.65
USD/JPY is pointing to gains in long positions on Monday. This is not consistent with the lack of movement shown by the pair. The ratio currently has a majority of long positions, indicative of trader bias towards USD/JPY breaking out of range and moving upwards.

Friday, November 7, 2014

gold as a hedge against the dollar

Many hold gold as a hedge against the dollar and indeed the traditional negative relationship has been very evident this year - the negative correlation particularly strengthened in H2. At the moment gold's 20-day correlation with the trade-weighted dollar index is hovering near the lowest levels since September 2012. This also means that the relationship between gold and the euro is near its strongest - right now the 20-day correlation sits at 0.62, which is near the highs for the year. With the dollar appreciating strongly, helped by BOJ and ECB easing, it should be no surprise that gold is coming under tremendous pressure.

Thursday, November 6, 2014

USD/CHF Daily

Nov  USD/CHF  Daily
13::50 GMT - Significant break higher in recent trade with prices now  above 0.97. Next focus is the tops at 0.9751 and 0.9790 and we could  see a trade near here once overbought indicators have unwound. Sup. should be in the 0.9670/90 band. N.I.
R4: 0.9898  2 Aug 12 high
R3: 0.9790 * 29 May 13 high
R2: 0.9751 * Jul 13 high
R1: 0.9720  minor projection
S1: 0.9670/90  recent tops
S2: 0.9600  intraday level
S3: 0.9578  Tues low
S4: 0.9539 * 30 Oct low
S5: 0.9520  recent highs

Platinum ETF holdings increased

In the week to November 5: Gold ETF holdings declined 0.34moz to 56.53moz. Investors liquidated 211koz of their holdings from the SPDR fund, 56koz from the Source fund, 48koz from the ETFS (LSE) fund, 29koz from the iShares fund and 28koz from the Sprott fund. On the contrary, inflows were seen in the GBS (LSE) fund to the tune of 60koz. Total ETF holdings were down 0.26moz, month-to-date. The rolling monthly change stood at -1.03moz against -1.11moz of the previous week.
Silver ETF holdings remained steady at 628.05moz. Investors added 93koz to their holdings in the ETFS (NYSE) fund. All of these inflows were set-off by outflows of 37koz from the Julius Baer fund, 31koz from ETFS (LSE) fund and 17koz from UBS fund.

Platinum ETF holdings increased 31.92koz to 2821.65koz, due to inflows in the ETFS (LSE) fund. In the same week, palladium ETF holdings climbed 62.04koz to 3088.68koz. Inflows of 56koz came in the ETFS (LSE) fund and 15koz in Standard bank fund.

Wednesday, November 5, 2014

EUR/USD has posted losses on Wednesday

EUR/USD has posted losses on Wednesday, wiping out the gains seen a day earlier. In the European session, the pair is trading in the high-1.24 range in the European session. In the Eurozone, Services PMIs met expectations, but Retail Sales looked awful, posting a sharp decline of -1.3%. In the US, there are two major events – ADP Non-Farm Employment Change and US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI.
Eurozone and Spanish Services PMI were almost unchanged from last month and met expectations. The Italian release improved to 50.8, pointing to expansion in the services industry for the first time in three months. The news was not as positive from Retail Sales, which came in at -1.3%, much worse than the estimate of -0.6%. This marked the indicator’s sharpest decline since January. Consumer spending is a key component of economic growth, and is one more indication of the poor state of the Eurozone economy.
EUR/USD lost ground late in the Asian session and this trend continues in European trade.
1.2518 continues to be active and is a weak resistance line. 1.2688 is stronger.
1.2407 is the next support level.
Current range: 1.2407 to 1.2518 EUR/USD ratio is unchanged on Wednesday. This is not consistent with the pair’s movement, as the euro has lost ground. The ratio has a majority of long positions, indicative of trader bias towards the euro reversing direction and moving higher.

Tuesday, November 4, 2014

EUR/USD

EUR/USD is showing little movement on Tuesday, continuing the trend which started the week. In the European session, the pair is trading in the low-1.25 range in the European session. On the release front, the EU issued its economic forecasts, which project continuing weakness in the Eurozone. In Spain, Unemployment Change posted a dismal reading of 79.2 thousand. In the US, Trade Balance is expected to show little change, with an estimate standing at -$40.0 billion.
EUR/USD edged higher early in the Asian session, testing resistance at 1.2518. The pair is steady in the European session.
1.2518 was tested earlier and remains fluid. We could see the pair break above this line during the day. 12.688 is a strong resistance line.
1.2407 continues to provide strong support.EUR/USD ratio is almost unchanged on Tuesday. This is consistent with the limited movement we’re seeing from the pair. The ratio has a majority of long positions, indicative of trader bias towards the euro breaking out and moving higher.

Monday, November 3, 2014

USD/JPY continues to rally on Monday

USD/JPY continues to rally on Monday, as the pair trades in the mid-113 range late in the European session. USD/JPY has gained a remarkable 500 points in the past week, as the yen finds itself trading at its lowest level since December 2007. On the release front, On the release front, Japanese markets are closed for a holiday. In the US, today’s highlight is ISM Manufacturing PMI. The markets are expecting little change in the upcoming release, with an estimate of 56.5 points.
The dollar surged against the yen on Friday, gaining over 300 points. The yen took a tumble after the BoJ surprised the markets with a move to increase monetary stimulus. The BoJ increased the monetary base from JPY 60-70 trillion to 80 trillion per year. The Japanese central bank said that the move was needed to increase inflation, which remains short of the central bank’s target of 2%.
Japanese data was a mix last week. Preliminary Industrial Production sparkled in September, with a gain of 2.7%, compared to a reading of -1.5% a month earlier. The estimate stood at 2.3%. Earlier in the week, Japanese Retail Sales was unexpectedly strong in September, climbing 2.3%, its strongest gain since March and well above the estimate of 0.9%. There has been concern about consumer spending in Japan after the sales tax was raised in April from 5% to 8%. The government plans to increase the tax to 10%, but is wary about hurting the economy, which has been marked by modest growth. Meanwhile, Household Spending, an important consumer spending indicator, fell 5.6%, well below expectations.
USD/JPY continues its impressive rally on Monday. The pair was steady in the Asian session and has posted strong gains in European trade, breaking past resistance at 11.294 and 113.68.
114.65 is a strong resistance line.
113.68 has switched to a support role as the dollar continues to move upwards. This weak line could see more activity during the day. 112.94 is stronger.
Current range: 113.68 to 114.65 USD/JPY ratio is pointing to gains in long positions on Monday. This is consistent with the pair’s movement, as the dollar continues to post strong gains against the yen. The ratio currently is close to evenly split, indicative of a lack of trader bias towards what direction USD/JPY will take.