Tuesday, July 29, 2014

USD/JPY/The S&P

USD/JPY has posted gains on Tuesday, as the pair has pushed above the 102 line and hit three-week highs. The dollar took advantage of disappointing Japanese consumer spending in June. On Tuesday, Japan will release Preliminary Industrial Production. Over in the US, today’s highlight is CB Consumer Confidence. The markets are expecting another strong showing from the June release.
Japanese data was dismal on Tuesday, as consumers continue to keep a tight grip on the purse strings. Household Spending declined by 3.0%, the third straight drop. The figure did beat the estimate of -3.7%. Retail Sales, the primary gauge of consumer spending, posted a decline of -0.6%, worse than the estimate of -0.4%. This was also a third straight decline. As well, Unemployment Rate rose to 3.7%, above the estimate of 3.5% and the highest level recorded since January. These figures point to trouble, as less consumer spending will likely translate into decreased economic growth and put more pressure on the Japanese currency.


The S&P/Case-Shiller price report shows a sharp slowdown in US home prices in May, which Mizuho Securities USA chief economist Steven Ricchiuto says reflects the US housing market losing momentum. "This downshift in prices reflects the fact that the housing market has lost its upside momentum despite the low level of yields," he says. "This is something none of the growth bulls were expecting to develop this year." The choppy recovery in the housing market is a part of the economy the Fed is still keeping a close eye on, and could build a case for the doves to hold rates low for longer.

Saturday, July 26, 2014

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Friday, July 25, 2014

Gasoline inventories and Gold

Futures declined as much has 0.5 percent in New York, and were poised for a weekly loss of 1.4 percent. Gasoline inventories climbed to the highest level since March, while crude supplies dropped for a fourth week, Energy Information Administration data showed on July 23. President Barack Obama said he expects the downing of the Malaysian Air jet in Ukraine to push European nations toward tougher sanctions against Russia.
U.S. refineries are clearly turning more crude oil into refined petroleum products at present than is actually needed,Carsten Fritsch, an analyst at Commerzbank AG in Frankfurt, said by e-mail. The build in gasoline inventories significantly exceeded expectations. Besides the increase in production, this was also due to weaker demand.
WTI for September delivery fell as much as 51 cents to $101.56 a barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange, and traded for $101.66 at 1:11 p.m. London time. The contract slid $1.05 to $102.07 yesterday, the lowest close since July 16. The volume of all futures traded was 10 percent above the 100-day average for the time of day.

Bullion fell as much as 1.3 percent to $1,289.40 an ounce yesterday, the lowest since June 19, as U.S. equities reached a record after data showed jobless claims fell and global manufacturing increased. The metal, which yesterday fell near its 200-day moving average, slid 28 percent last year on expectations the Federal Reserve would tighten monetary policy.
U.S. interest rates may rise sooner than forecast if the labor market continues to improve more quickly than anticipated,” Fed Chair Janet Yellen said last week, adding the central bank must press on with stimulus because  significant  remains. Gold is heading for a monthly loss even amid unrest in Ukraine and the Middle East.
Gold decline to near the 200-day moving average  so far been enough to halt the slide, as short-sellers have used that support to book some profit,Ole Hansen, head of commodity strategy at Saxo Bank A/S in Copenhagen, said today by e-mail. Considering the improvement in recent data and speculation about the Feds intentions with regard to tightening, the market will be nervous over the coming week, leaving little room to the upside.

Thursday, July 24, 2014

Gold has dipped EUR/USD

Gold has dipped under the key level of $1300, as the spot price stands at $1298.67 per ounce late the European session. The metal has now slipped about 2% in little over a week. In the US, Unemployment Claims looked excellent, dropping to its lowest level in over eight years. New Home Sales will be released later in the day. Geopolitical tensions are bad news for the markets, which crave stability. With violence continuing in Ukraine and Gaza, nervous investors have rallied around the safe-haven US dollar as well as gold, at the expense of other currencies. In Ukraine, the downing of a Malaysian Airlines jet, apparently by pro-Russian separatists, has seriously frayed relations between the West and Russia, which have already been strained since the latter annexed Crimea. Fighting continues between the separatists and Ukrainian forces in Eastern Ukraine. The Europeans are threatening stronger sanctions against Russia, and escalating tensions in eastern Ukraine could shake up the markets. In the Middle East, the fighting in Gaza between Hamas and Israel has intensified, as Israel presses on with a ground offensive and casualties rise.

EUR/USD has posted slight gains on Thursday, as the pair trades in the high-1.34 range in the European session. The euro received some help as German and Eurozone PMIs met or exceeded expectations. However, French PMI data was not as positive. In Spain, the unemployment rate dropped below 25% for the first time in almost two years. In the US, today’s key events are Unemployment Claims and New Home Sales. The markets are braced for weaker numbers from both releases.

Wednesday, July 23, 2014

China gold

China gold demand fell 19 percent in the first six months of this year as investors bought fewer bars and coins, offsetting increased demand for jewelry, the China Gold Association said.
Consumption in China, which passed India last year as the worlds biggest user, slid to 569.5 metric tons, the Beijing-based association said in a statement today. Demand for bars sank 62 percent, while gold use in jewelry rose 11 percent, according to the statement.
An 8.9 percent price rise this year amid unrest in Ukraine and the Middle East has hurt consumption in China, which is expected to be “more or less the same” on a full-year basis in 2014, Zhang Bingnan, vice-chairman and general secretary at the association, said in an interview in Singapore last month. Demand will rise about 25 percent in the next four years as an increasing population gets wealthier, the London-based World Gold Council said in April.

Tuesday, July 22, 2014

Gold,AUD/USD

Gold has edged lower on Tuesday, as the spot price stands at $1306.09 per ounce in the European session. On the release front, it’s a busy day in the US, highlighted by Core CPI and Existing Home Sales, the first major events of the week from the US. The markets are bracing for another weak outing from Core CPI, while Existing Home Sales is  expected to improve sharply.
International trouble spots continue to grab the headlines, as nervous investors keep an eye on events Ukraine and the Middle East. Last week’s downing of a Malaysian Airlines jet, apparently by proRussian separatists, has seriously frayed relations between Europe and the US with Russia, which have already been strained since the latter annexed Crimea.

AUD/USD has posted gains on Tuesday, as the pair has pushed above the 0.94 line in the North American session. The Aussie has moved higher as US CPI posted a weak gain of 0.1% last month. Today’s other key release is Existing Home Sales, which will be released later in the day. In Australia, RBA Governor Glenn Stevens spoke at an event in Sydney. We’ll get a look at Australian CPI early on Wednesday.
US inflation numbers continue to struggle. Core CPI posted a paltry gain of 0.1%, shy of the estimate of 0.1%. The key index has looked in anemic in 2014, with its highest gain this year at just 0.3%. CPI gained 0.3% last month, matching the forecast. The markets are expecting better news on the housing front, as Existing Home Sales is expected to show strong gains in June.

Monday, July 21, 2014

EUR and GBP

The euro gained on the U.S. dollar and the yen held steady in a thinned-holiday Asian trading session overnight. But as tensions rise between Russia and the West, and the violence in the Gaza Strip becomes increasingly bloody, geopolitical events remain the focal point for investors and all asset classes.
The corporate earnings season is underway but even favorable U.S. earnings have been seemingly forgotten. Likewise, the aggressive search for safe haven trading strategies has temporarily fallen since the initial shocks of late last week. Markets and investors are seeking clear guidance from authorities before pursuing any aggressive strategies.
As we head stateside, currency technical levels remain in focus following last Friday’s tests for the EUR and GBP both outright and on the crosses. There has been no sustained breakout just yet, especially for the 18-member single unit, which tested and slightly breached the lower end of the trading range at the ‚¬1.3500 level at the end of last week. For many, with the pair having managed to hold above the pivotal January low of ‚¬1.3477, it will allow for more consolidation before the next onslaught with purpose.
Ongoing geopolitical events should leave the EUR vulnerable; especially ahead of a European Union foreign ministers meet scheduled for tomorrow to discuss sanctions against Russia. Market participants are required to follow both the Treasury and bund yields for clues. Currently, yield differentials are also hinting that the EUR could come under renewed fresh pressure with German 10-year yields probing fresh, historically low levels (bund 10′s +1.16%, U.S. 10′s +2.28%).

Friday, July 18, 2014

Forex News


Fresh US sanctions against Russia drag the ruble down to a six week low against the US dollar, but Morgan Stanley says the current pace of the selloff won't be sustained. Higher oil prices should benefit the ruble; Russia is a huge oil exporter, and lofty oil prices will lead to more money being converted into rubles to buy Russian oil. Russia's central bank also may step in to stabilize the ruble and cap its weakness. Morgan Stanley warns about potential spillover effects in the Polish zloty and Hungarian forint, which are down today against both the euro and dollar. USD/RUB at 34.93, up 1%.
The U.S. government because of what it views as Russia’s interference in Ukraine, imposed its most wide-ranging sanctions yet, on key players in the country’s economy, including Gazprombank and Rosneft Oil Co, and other major banks and energy and defense companies.
Putin said he needed to see the details of the sanctions to understand their full scope. But he added that he was sure the sanctions would damage the national interests of the United States in the long run.
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Thursday, July 17, 2014

EUR/USD Daily

 EUR/USD   Daily
14::05 GMT - Range has not changed yet but prices are coming under     pressure again. Below today's low next focus is the Jun lows at       1.3502/10 and, if these fail, 1.3477 is next focus. Res. is still at 1.3540 and this needs to be cleared to take the pressure off the downside.N.I.
R5: 1.3647/50 * 9/10 Jul highs
R4: 1.3620/30  intraday level
R3: 1.3585/90  intraday level
R2: 1.3560  intraday level
R1: 1.3540  today high
S1: 1.3519  Wed low
S2: 1.3502/10 * Jun lows
S3: 1.3477 * Feb low
S4: 1.3452 * Aug 13 high
S5: 1.3417 * Jun 13 high

USD/JPY--USD/RUB

At a policy meeting this week, the Bank of Japan opted to hold course with its current monetary easing, and the minutes will be released later on Thursday. Any unexpected dissensions amongst policy makers in the minutes could have an impact on USD/JPY. Under current monetary policy, the money base has been increasing at an annual pace of 60-70 trillion yen. This has led to a severe weakening of the yen, so traders can expect the currency to remain below the 100 level, absent unexpectedly strong data out of Japan.

Fresh US sanctions against Russia drag the ruble down to a six-week low against the US dollar, but Morgan Stanley says the current pace of the selloff won't be sustained. Higher oil prices should benefit the ruble; Russia is a huge oil exporter, and lofty oil prices will lead to more money being converted into rubles to buy Russian oil. Russia's central bank also may step in to stabilize the ruble and cap its weakness. Morgan Stanley warns about potential spillover effects in the Polish zloty and Hungarian forint, which are down today against both the euro and dollar. USD/RUB at 34.93, up 1%.

Wednesday, July 16, 2014

USD/CAD

BMO Capital Markets says there's a mix of short- and medium-term foreign exchange players who are positioned roughly short-to-neutral on the Canadian dollar going into today's Bank of Canada policy statement at 10am. It suggests the broader consensus is for a more "dovish" tone in the statement and in the Bank's quarterly monetary policy report, which will be released at the same time. Firm warns, however, that this leaves room for USD/CAD to fall back to the low 1.0700s today if there is roughly no change in the tone at all. It would also leave the greenback vulnerable to further downside if Canadian CPI data for June on Friday is stronger than expected.

Thursday, July 10, 2014

EUR/USD

EUR/USD has edged lower on Thursday, as the pair trades in the mid-1.36 range in the European session. On the release front, French and Italian Industrial Production both posted sharp declines. Today’s highlight in the US is Unemployment Claims. Little change is expected from the previous release.
The Federal Reserve minutes did not shed much light on when the Fed plans to raise interest rates, but policymakers did agree to wind up the QE scheme by October. The asset purchase program flooded the economy with over $2 trillion, and the Fed has been steadily reducing the program since last December. Winding down QE will require several more tapers by the Fed, but that shouldn’t pose a problem, given the solid employment data the economy has been churning out. EUR/USD did not show much response to the low-key minutes, with the euro posting slight gains on Wednesday.

EUR/USD

EUR/USD has edged lower on Thursday, as the pair trades in the mid-1.36 range in the European session. On the release front, French and Italian Industrial Production both posted sharp declines. Today’s highlight in the US is Unemployment Claims. Little change is expected from the previous release.
The Federal Reserve minutes did not shed much light on when the Fed plans to raise interest rates, but policymakers did agree to wind up the QE scheme by October. The asset purchase program flooded the economy with over $2 trillion, and the Fed has been steadily reducing the program since last December. Winding down QE will require several more tapers by the Fed, but that shouldn’t pose a problem, given the solid employment data the economy has been churning out. EUR/USD did not show much response to the low-key minutes, with the euro posting slight gains on Wednesday.

Stock market trading plan

Your position size should be such that you are not risking more than what you determine to be a truly acceptable loss. You should make sure this number which is really your ultimate risk is a number you are very comfortable with. With the correct numbers figured in your plan, you can be wrong and lose money on two out of every three trades for the rest of your life and do very well. So you completely understand, both losing trades were profitable for a bit and then stopped out after moving your protective stop order closer to your entry price. These were not full stop losses but even if they were, it would still be more than fine because your protecting profits. Taking your proper losses and holding your positions to your profit targets is the key to small losses and larger profits. Traders shound not be greedy "pigs get slaughtered".
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Wednesday, July 9, 2014

GBP/USD Daily

 GBP/USD   Daily
13::00 GMT - Drop back this am. has drawn GBP into a trading range     below 1.7120 but still inside Tues' range- rally potential is on hold for now whilst a smaller 2/3 day balance trades between 1.7110 & 1.7130. Market is still on track for a  July/ start Aug top.

 GBP/JPY  Daily
13::10 GMT - GBP's sitting on 173.80~/ a 50% retrace of the latest (end-June) rise : GBP's tended to hold the mid point on pullbacks since   May and is therefore positioned for another run up here. Push past 174.40 or so improves. Next refs. up: 175.50, 181.35.

Tuesday, July 8, 2014

forex contingent

Not the ideal start to a week where many expected more enthusiasms to be expressed across the various asset classes, especially after last week’s strong U.S. employment headline print. Maybe the market is priming itself for the summer doldrums. The global equities excuse is that investors prefer to assess equity valuations ahead of corporate earnings reports. Too many investors think it’s a tad rich at record highs to consider jumping in with both feet.
The forex contingent continues to live off scraps, with the 18-member single unit being squeezed mostly on the crosses rather than outright. Today the EUR happens to get a small lift from an ‘old foe,’ the U.K., whose headline economic releases have managed to push the pound to different heights, something that was not expected.

Friday, July 4, 2014

Trading Environments

Keep an eye on supply and demand levels by watching the volume, traders can specifically talking about the size of buy and sell orders from willing buyers and sellers. Thus “willing” because they have not bought all they wanted to buy yet. Let’s say your looking at the actual buy and sell orders, specifically the sell orders as you will reference that later in your trading. You are looking to short the market as you see a price level a little higher where there is a significant amount of unfilled supply and you see no significant buy orders  demand  until much further down in price. Thus you are expecting price to turn lower from supply and fall down to demand.
In that scenario, things are very set and there is almost a profit guaranteed barring any good news event where a huge set of new orders come into the market which does not take place often. This is a big reason traders paid so much money for seats on the exchange years ago, it’s all about visibility to the significant orders. Ok let’s focus on the supply where we are expecting price to turn lower at. What if just above that supply area, there was an even larger amount of supply? Would you now feel even better about shorting at that level? This would be a safer trade.
Trading Environments Bitcoin News

Thursday, July 3, 2014

Gold futures

Gold futures headed for the biggest drop since May after the U.S. added more jobs last month than forecast, curbing demand for a haven asset. The addition of 288,000 jobs followed a 224,000 gain the prior month, Labor Department figures showed today. The median forecast in a Bloomberg survey of economists called for a 215,000 advance.
Bullion rose 11 percent this year through yesterday as the Federal Reserve said it will keep interest rates low for a considerable time after ending bond buying, while unrest in Iraq and Ukraine spurred demand for a haven. The metal plunged 28 percent in 2013, the most in three decades, as the U.S. economy gained traction. The job numbers are telling us that the economy is healthy, and people don't need a lot of safe haven going forward, Alfonso Esparza, a senior currency analyst in Toronto at Oanda Corp Gold will probably now start weakening again.
The gold imports during the first 11 months of the outgoing fiscal year 2013-14 plunged by 43.48 percent as against the same period of last year. According to data revealed by Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS), during the period under review, 4,177 kilogram of yellow metal worth of US$ 172.950 million was imported as compared to the import of 5,740 kg valuing $306.005 million during July-May 2012-13. The overall imports of metal group, registered a decrease of 9.26 percent during the first 11 months of the year 2013-14 against the same period of last year.
The metal group imports in to the country during the period under review were recorded at $2.7438 billion against imports of $3.024 billion during same period of last year.

Mario Draghi's headline

Markets are starting to respond to Mario Draghi's headline about the potential TLTRO take up of EUR1 trillion, notes Valentin Marinov, G10 FX analyst at Citigroup. "This is considerable amount taking into account that the ECB's balance sheet is close to EUR2 trillion. If Draghi is right the ECB balance sheet would grow considerably over time. This should push the ratio of ECB/Fed balance sheet lower before long. Given the historic link between EURUSD and the ratio of Fed/ECB balance sheet - this should underscore the downside risks to EURUSD." The pair is now just above $1.36

Wednesday, July 2, 2014

USD/JPY 7/2

USD/JPY is steady on Wednesday, as the pair trades in the mid-101 range late in the European session. On the release front, today’s highlight is the ADP Nonfarm Payrolls, which should be treated as a market-mover. As well, Federal Reserve chair Janet Yellen will address the IMF in Washington. There are no Japanese releases on Wednesday.
The Tankan indices are key indicators of the health of the Japanese economy, and the May data was disappointing. Tankan Manufacturing Index slipped to 12 points, a three-month low. The Tankan Non-Manufacturing Index dropped to 19 points, down from 24 points a month earlier. This reading matched the estimate. As well, Japanese Average Cash Earnings posted a respectable gain of 0.8%, matching the forecast.