Monday, March 31, 2014

Yellen strikes dovish tone

Treasurys bounce off session lows as Yellen strikes dovish tone in her latest speech. The Fed chief says the central bank is "considerably" short of both dual-mandate goals--promoting jobs while keeping inflation steady. She says low rate of wage growth is another sign the Fed's job isn't done, the latest sign the most-prominent dove is in no rush to raise interest rates. Monday's data support her point--the Chicago PMI slid to 55.9 from February's 59.8. Still coming this week is ISM data and the March jobs report, key for setting the near-term bond-market outlook. The 10-year note is 11/32 lower, yielding 2.752%.

GMP Securities

GMP Securities, despite today's rally for the loonie on the January GDP data, still thinks the currency will make a run to C$1.15 versus the greenback before finishing 2014 at C$1.09. It calls the GDP report merely a reversal of December's weather-pressured result and still thinks the metric will rise 2.4% for the year, lagging its 3% estimate for the US. A soft economy driven by "stubbornly slowly improving business investments," along with slow export growth, isn't good for the Canadian dollar, GMP notes. Combined with limited commodity-prices gains amid uneven global GDP growth, it sees the Bank of Canada staying on the sidelines for another year. The greenback is around C$1.1020.

Sunday, March 30, 2014

investing as a stock or Forex trader

 You need to change your thinking and you will be a smart investor, because if you always do what you've always done you will fall into that losing pattern again.  You need to go back to look at the trade setup again and see why it was a bad trade. What could you have done better to analyze when to enter the trade. This is how smart traders become successful and keep taking money from the new traders. You haven't put a stop loss in and the price action makes a sudden and dramatic move and you start chasing a losing trade hoping to get back to break even. You must change your thinking to break the pattern and become a smart trader and investor.
Stocks Smart Investing

Improve your profits when trading stocks

Improve your profits when trading stocks by knowing what the insiders of the company are buying.
 You need to increase your profit from  winning stock trades or reduce your losses from the losing
stock trades.The first thing you need to do is use trailing stops on all your stock trades.Before you enter a stock trade you need to determine how much you are willing to risk if the trade goes against you.Usually in the five to ten percent range is a good stop loss but you need to make that decision and stick with it. You need to move the stop to breakeven as your trade is making a profit.
Insiders buying of stocks

Friday, March 28, 2014

USD/CHF Daily update

 USD/CHF  Daily
13::15GMT - Mkt. reached the s/term limit with the trade near the      0.8895 res. Current setback should find sup. at 0.8835/40 and prices  should rebase there. Lower sup. is at 0.8815/20. Res. is now at 0.8899.

Inflation remains subdued

Inflation remains subdued. The price index for personal consumption expenditures, the Federal Reserve's preferred gauge of inflation, was up a seasonally adjusted 0.1% in February from January and up 0.9% from a year ago.
Excluding the volatile categories of food and energy, the PCE price index rose 0.1% from January and was up 1.1% from a year ago.
Other measures also have showed prices undershooting the Fed's 2% inflation target. The Labor Department's closely watched consumer price index rose 1.1% in February from a year ago, and 1.6% excluding food and energy.
There are signs the U.S. economy last month began to bounce back from a stretch of weak data in December and January. Retail sales were up, factory production rose and nonfarm employers added an estimated 175,000 jobs in the labor market's strongest performance since November.

U.S. economy last month

There are signs the U.S. economy last month began to bounce back from a stretch of weak data in December and January. Retail sales were up, factory production rose and nonfarm employers added an estimated 175,000 jobs in the labor market's strongest performance since November.
Still, the housing market remained weak as unusually cold temperatures persisted in the northern and central U.S. It's been the coldest winter since 2009-2010 across all 48 contiguous states, according to the National Climatic Data Center.
"Certainly weather has played an important role in weakening economic activity in" the first quarter of 2014, Fed Chairwoman Janet Yellen said last week. She said most Fed officials expect the weather's effects will "begin to wash out in the second quarter, and we can even see some rebound."

Thursday, March 27, 2014


NZD/JPY has maintained a bullish pattern of higher highs and higher lows, this morning hitting new highs. Stochastics are poised to cross higher, which would be confirmed tonight by a close above 88.000. With daily and weekly MACDs above their zero lines, we expect extension of the uptrend to next major resistance at 97.793, the July 2007 high. Any setbacks will be limited in time and extent, with first strong support at 86.331, the March 17 low, which is also the 'last significant corrective low'. We will recommend a new long tonight on a close above 88.00, targeting 97.00, with the stop initially at 86.00.

success in the stock markets

To have success in the stock markets you need a trading plan that will detail your risk management and trade management to make money.  Traders need to have a plan and should constantly upgrade your trading plan for market success. You should have written rules for managing trades can help remove the effect of emotions on your trading since you will be following a good winning strategy, rather than trying to make decisions on the spot.  Traders need to write the plan down it allows you to review them on a regular basis and see if you are consistently following them.  Thus you are holding yourself accountable for your trades and are more likely to follow them. In your trading plan, you should have some sort of rule as to when you will move your initial stop to breakeven this will save your trading account.
Stock Market Success

lower jobless claims

A lower jobless claims number failed to produce more than a temporary bump in the dollar's value against the euro and yen as investors show they want more substantial proof that the employment picture in the US has improved. The dollar pushed higher against the yen to Y102.44, but quickly wound back down to Y102.28. The euro slipped against the buck briefly to $1.3750, before scrabbling back to its pre-report level, last at $1.3760. "Markets really want to see confirmation in the nonfarm payroll report for the strength of the job market

Wednesday, March 26, 2014

The euro zone

The euro zone faces a low but real risk of deflation that may force the European Central Bank to act, ECB board member Luis Maria Linde said Wednesday.
"If you ask me, the risk of inflation is low, but it isn't zero," Mr. Linde said at a business event. "There certainly is a chance that we see deflation."
Mr. Linde, who heads Spain's central bank, said the ECB stands ready and must be able to take measures to avoid a deflationary trend. His comments come after other ECB officials Tuesday sent strong signals that they are willing to consider dramatic steps to guard against dangerously low inflation. Earlier Wednesday, Slovakia's central bank Governor Josef Makuch said the ECB was ready to combat the specter of declining prices which, he said, threatens to undermine the euro zone's recovery.

Canada's two-year bond yield

Canada's two-year bond yield is at 1.065% Wednesday, from 1.070% Tuesday, according to electronic trading platform CanDeal. The 10-year bond yielded 2.459%, from 2.478%. Bond yields move inversely to bond prices.
There are no Canadian data releases this week, leaving the market particularly susceptible to influences from the U.S.
Orders in the U.S. for durable goods--products such as refrigerators and cars meant to last more than three years--rose 2.2% in February. That marked the strongest reading since November.
But the gain was driven by aircraft demand. Stripping the volatile transportation segment, durable goods posted only a 0.2% gain.

Tuesday, March 25, 2014

Canadian dollar

The Canadian dollar has been confined to a narrow range so far this week, but lost considerable ground last week after remarks from Bank of Canada Governor Stephen Poloz that suggested a dovish coloring to the Bank's neutral policy stance.
Indications from the U.S. Federal Reserve's policy statement last Wednesday that it could reduce monetary stimulus more rapidly than previously expected also rattled the Canadian currency.
Scotia said it expects Canadian-dollar weakness will continue in the near term as bearish sentiment, driven by relative central-bank outlooks, puts downside pressure on the currency.
It puts resistance for the U.S. dollar at C$1.1175 and resistance at C$1.1237.

EU commissioner Tajani

First it was EU commissioner Tajani saying EUR/USD is too strong at 1.40. Then ECB's Weidmann said negative interest rates would be an appropriate measure, and now ECB's Makuch is on the wires saying he sees room for weaker euro by year-end, and a need for measures to limit deflation risks. Keep an ear out for ECB President Draghi who speaks at 1600 GMT. EUR/USD just sank to a fresh day low of 1.3785, 0.5% off the session and day's 1.3848 high.

Monday, March 24, 2014

Fed's forward guidance

 Macro Intelligence 2 Partners is no fan of the Fed's forward guidance and fears the strategy could fuel a "meltdown" in the front end of the bond market "that would be both vicious and ultimately damaging to the Fed's credibility." Firm thinks forward guidance is "a con trip, which only works if markets can be persuaded to act like a frog in boiling water, accepting artificially low rates in the face of higher inflation and growth." Mi2 thinks the unemployment rate "will continue to fall far faster than the Fed's forecasts," and "trend in wages has decisively turned" higher. "Are we really meant to assume that Fed officials will be willing to stick with Janet's plan for slow rate hikes in this environment?"

Canadian dollar

The diverging economic outlooks of Canada and the U.S. suggest continued pressure on the Canadian dollar, they said. "We think the low domestic inflation/sluggish growth outlook for Canada will continue to contrast somewhat at least with the improving underlying fundamentals in the USD and keep a firm bid under USD/CAD," TD's strategists said.
With the U.S. dollar finding solid support in the upper C$1.1100s, TD looks for gains toward the mid-C$1.1300 area from here.
There are, however, some countervailing forces at play, TD says.
The narrowing of U.S./Canadian yield spreads in the middle section of the yield curve seems to have become "bogged down," and data on the positions of speculative accounts in futures contracts from the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission shows they ramped up their negative positioning in the Canadian dollar, TD says.
"The short CAD trade is popular and while not yet necessarily 'over-populated,' it may make downside progress harder to achieve without a solid reason," TD said.

Friday, March 21, 2014

insider buying

Notable Purchases:
The diversified holding company Leucadia National (NYSE:LUK) bought 23,000,000 shares of branded consumer products company Harbinger (NYSE:HRG) for $253,000,000.
Mallika Srinivasan, a director at agricultural equipment company Agco (NYSE:AGCO), bought 155,592 shares of company stock for $8,081,449.
Willem Mesdaq, a director at big and tall men's apparel retailer Destination XL Group (NASDAQ:DXLG), bought 1,086,200 shares of company stock for $5,976,941.
The Omaha, Nebraska-based financial investment advisory firm 402 Capital bought 112,561 shares of online personals services provider Spark Networks (NYSEMKT:LOV) for $556,746.

Thursday, March 20, 2014

Charting demand levels in trading

 The reality is that the stock or Forex markets throw off plenty of warning signs before they start falling in earnest.  The problem is that most traders and investors, either don't see or dismiss these warning signs altogether.  Only after it’s too late traders  tend to take action,that’s just human mind at work. Traders must remember that their natural human tendencies always get them in trouble when it comes to trading. What this tells us is that we need to change the way we think in order to change our results, and part of  that change in mindset is to be  possitive instead of negative when looking at the stock markets.  This sometimes involves going against the grain of mainstream thinking.  This can be hard for many traders to understand. Thus it’s not easy being different, but it can be rewarding, and more importantly, profitable.
Charting demand levels in trading

job market

While the job market has started to show signs of strength, it hasn't recovered fully from the recession. Employers increased payrolls at a slower pace in December and January but stepped up hiring in February. Still, they aren't creating jobs as quickly as they were in the middle of last year, a separate Labor Department report showed.
The gains have been enough to reassure Federal Reserve officials that the recovery remains on track, allowing them to gradually pull back on a bond-buying program meant to spur the economy. On Wednesday, the central bank's policy committee said it would reduce its monthly bond purchases to $55 billion in April from $85 billion last year.
"For some time, the level of unemployment claims has been consistent with an acceptable pace of job losses," said Stephen Stanley, chief economist at Pierpont Securities. "The root problem is that throughout the recovery, the economy has never been able to generate an explosive pace of hiring. And that remains the case."

Fed Chairwoman Janet Yellen

The Fed on Wednesday announced another $10 billion reduction to its monthly bond-buying program, which was expected. But an accompanying set of policy-rate projections caused a bit of a stir when it showed some Fed officials pulling forward their forecasts for higher rates.
Fed Chairwoman Janet Yellen, in her post-meeting press conference, rattled bond investors further when she said, in somewhat of an off-hand manner, that the first rate hike could come about six months after the bond-buying program ends.
With investors widely expecting the purchase program to end in the fall, that meant a rate increase could be in the cards as early as next spring -- a bit sooner than the mid-2015 many market participants had in mind.

Wednesday, March 19, 2014


 GBP/JPY  Daily
14::30 GMT - Modest rise holding just above Tues' mid, but GBP is stillwell inside yesterday's range & sitting just off last week's low. A   breakdown here (Thurs?) has scope for a fast trade down to 165.

FOMC statement

 Markets generally sticking to narrow ranges so far, ahead of the FOMC statement and Yellen press conference this afternoon. Expect muted reaction when the time comes, says Eric Green, global head of rates, FX & commodity research at TD Securities. "Tapering is fully priced in and the market has already psychologically moved well beyond the 6.5% threshold as any material guide for policy," he writes. "Neither the timing nor the pace of rate hikes will be materially affected by the outcome today.

Tuesday, March 18, 2014

US Treasury

Latest capital flows report from the US Treasury once again puts to rest persistent concerns about China dumping US government debt. The biggest foreign owner of Treasurys increased its overall holdings --including bills, notes and bonds -- by $13.6B in January, following a $47.8B cut in December. It suggests China, like many other investors, sought the safety of Treasurys amid a broad selloff in riskier assets in January that sent the 10-year yield sharply lower. Foreign central banks overall cut holdings in January by a hefty $16.7B, though a lot of that was offset by buying from private overseas investors.

Tuesday, March 11, 2014

Merrill Lynch cautions

Merrill Lynch cautions against being deceived by the apparent similarities between Canada's housing market now and the U.S. before its crash. Subprime lending accounts for less than 10% of the Canadian mortgage market, unlike that 20% in the U.S. prior to the crisis. Share of total mortgages that are delinquent for three or more months is a miniscule 0.3% in Canada, much lower than the U.S. pre-crisis figure of 2%. "Furthermore, Canadian borrowers aren't squeaking by with monthly payments," Merrill says. A whopping 38% of households surveyed by a mortgage industry umbrella group engaged in some action in the past year to pay off their mortgage faster.


USD/CHF  Daily                                             
06:40- The break of the 1.2975 swing low produced only limited follow thro' yesterday. Prices were held within the 1.2950/60 sup. band      which coincided with the trendline. A sideways/higher              
trade looks possible s/term. Res. is at 1.3010 then 1.3035. Below     1.2958 there may be some sup. at 1.2930/35 but a better level is      1.2900/05

Monday, March 10, 2014

charts now on offer track the unemployment rate

The charts now on offer track the unemployment rate--for many observers the most-important measure of job market health. The charts also follow hours worked, labor demand, labor force participation, job losses, wages, and labor market mismatches. Each category can be refined further. For example, the unemployment rate chart can be broken down by age, gender and other subdivisions of job market performance.
"Understanding the workings of the labor market requires closely following the evolution of different aspects of the labor market," the New York Fed said. The charts it is now producing offer a "complete snapshot" of the jobs market, the bank says.
The new charts show an evolving view of how the central bank looks at the jobs market. Aggressive Fed monetary policy actions over recent years have been aimed largely at boosting a jobs market hard hit by the financial crisis and recession. Much of the attention has centered on the rapid rise and more gradual decline of the unemployment rate, as the economy moved to regain its footing.
The Fed brought even more attention to the unemployment rate as a key variable when it began to say in December 2012 that it wouldn't consider raising short-term rates until the jobless rate fell under 6.5%. Since the central bank offered that threshold for potential action, the jobless rate has undergone a much more rapid decline than many had expected.
URL for charts:

Survey of Consumer Expectations

U.S. consumers see a small acceleration in inflation over the next year, according to a survey released Monday. The Survey of Consumer Expectations from February done by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, shows consumers think the inflation rate will rise to 3.09% on the one-year horizon, up from 3.0% in January. The median inflation expectations for the next three years edged up to 3.18% from 3.05% a month earlier.
Expectations about home prices, however, slowed last month. The New York Fed survey found consumers think the median gain in home prices during the coming year will be 4.0%, down from a 4.54% increase expected in January.

U.S. labor-market indicators

A compilation of U.S. labor-market indicators shows further improvement, according to a report released Monday. The Conference Board said its February employment trends index increased to 116.39 from a revised 115.99 in January, first reported as 116.61. The latest index is up 4.4% from a year ago. "February's job report and the ongoing improvement in the Employment Trends Index should provide some relief for those concerned about weakness in the U.S. economy and labor market," said Gad Levanon, director of macroeconomic research at the board.
On Friday, the Labor Department said the U.S. economy created 175,000 jobs in February, better than economists expected, and the unemployment rate ticked up to 6.7% last month from 6.6% in January.
The board said six of the ETI's eight components contributed to the February advance. The biggest positives were the number of temporary jobs and job openings.

Sunday, March 9, 2014

Trading the futures markets technical traders

 The big futures traders and brokers are also using this information. Energy Information Administration (EIA) releases data each week on crude oil and natural gas inventories. The big traders and banks,brokers use this to make their money studying the fundamentals of the market and place their trades accordingly. You should have a calender set up in your trading plan that gives you the dates of the news releases.If you trade the forex market then the  non-farm payrolls, unemployment rate are important to watch and the bureau of labor statistics. These all can help you plan your trading strategy and take less risk in the markets.
Stock and Futures Market Trading Help

Friday, March 7, 2014

The 10-year note

Thomas Roth, senior trader at Mitsubishi UFJ Securities (USA) in New York., says there have been buyers taking advantage of the selling in bonds. He says that the 10-year yield around 2.8% is still attractive to some investors because "we still have a lot of work do to get the economy back on track." Michael Franzese, trader at ED&F Man, says trading was not frenetic. "This is just one jobs report and many traders refrain from betting aggressively on further rise in yields," he says. He expects the 10-year yield to be capped at 2.88% in the next few weeks as investors and traders wait for more economic releases to confirm that the US economy will pick up speed. The 10-year note is recently 17/32 lower, yielding 2.799%.


 GBP/USD   Daily
14::35 GMT - Look above 1.6770 this am. has been sent back at some     speed this pm. to/ through the am. pivot 1.6735. Pull below 1.6720    now weakens the market- suggests a top reversal is trading (into 1.66/ next week.)

Thursday, March 6, 2014

Trading the futures markets

 Learning to trade the futures markets can be a tough task.Traders need to learn what reports to follow and what chart indicators they need to use.traders need to investagate which ones to follow and research them.Look for future markets that you have interest in and read all you can before you start trading them. There are some futures that are less costly and using a screaner will help you find them. Research the fundamentals and what time of year there is more movement for a particulat futurs contract. Weather and other market conditions can effect the movement.Take the grain markets they react to the planting season, the yields, the weather.The same is true for beef,sugar,orange juice and so on.
Stock and Futures Market Trading Help

Wednesday, March 5, 2014


EUR/JPY is still not able to break free from the 50-day   MA/100-day MA zone right now. At this point, the upside is still      capped at the 140.87/141.25 zone. We do not see any new break clues to suggest that this mkt will fly through that    upper zone. There is risk of another pullback, but that would also be contained for now near the 100-day MA at 139.04.

AUD/USD trade

AUD/USD over the past few months, but that's starting to change.
For much of February it ranged between 0.8870, the 50% retracement of the January-February rise, and 0.9078/89, the 38% retracement of the October-to-January bear trade and the January failure high. Bullish trending conditions are already in place, reflected by the MACD being above its zero line and what looks like a 'higher high' this week, above the January low.

Traders should focus is now on momentum tools, which are threatening to cross higher again within the bullish trend. A close above 0.8975 would cause us to recommend a new long, looking to take out 0.9078/89 to rise as far as 0.9330, which is just below the 62% retracement level of 0.9338, with a stop initially at 0.8865, the retracement support.

Tuesday, March 4, 2014

Canadian dollar

 The Canadian dollar slumps in recent trading, pushing the currency back into negative territory for the day against the US dollar. Some analysts speculate the loonie will become sensitive to a possible election being called in Quebec, which is currently governed by the separatist Parti Quebecois. But for now, Velocity Trade's Jasmin Valade attributes the moves to flow-driven trading ahead the Bank of Canada policy announcement Wednesday. The central bank is expected to maintain its dovish stance.

Treasury accounts

After swinging back and forth between net-long and net-short positions since the start of the year, JPMorgan's active Treasury clients came out dead even in the latest weekly survey. With the 23% pro-Treasury accounts offsetting the 23% anti-Treasury accounts, those neutral on the market remained dominant at 54%. Such a divided stance reflects how uncertain the near-term forecast is, since most still believe yields will rise later this year. Weather-impacted data threaten to pause Fed tapering, while concerns about Ukraine spur flights to safety, hurting the mountain of short bets stacked up against Treasurys when 2014 started.


EUR/CHF has been under pressure this year, testing the lower limits of its broad sideways range. While this initially gave way on Monday, the current sharp recovery hightlights not only a rejection of the lower limits of the channel, but also a bullish Piercing Line Candlestick reversal pattern, if Friday's close is above last week's open/close mid-point at 1.2161.
Confirmation of the reversal pattern would be outright bullish and open the way to a test of the 1.2398 January failure high in the coming weeks, and even 1.2652, the May 2013 high, further out.
Traders will recommend a long position for a 2m to 3m horizon on a close Friday above 1.2161, targeting 1.2390, with a stop at 1.2020, below the November 2012 rally point. A short-term reversal may also be developing on the daily chart, adding to EUR/CHF bullishness.