Friday, May 30, 2014

Open Interest Stocks

Traders will have some losing days this is normal, some days where you make just a handful of pips or points if trading stocks, and occasionally those days where you can make nothing but profitable trades. Money seems to be coming to you from the trades. Those are the days that can change your thinking on what your abilities are good and bad. Experienced traders take the small losses, but the letting your winners run seems to be the hard part for some and they should use a trailing stop to lock in profits. After every completed trade, many expect the new trader to look back and examine the reasons for where they got in and how why close the trade. When examining the exits of your trades, look at the patterns of what took place. Learning to better manage your winning trades will certainly be easier when you examine what happened to your old trades.
Open Interest

US releases

Gold prices continues to trade at its lowest levels since February, with a spot price of $1255.27 per ounce in Friday’s European session. The metal has notreacted to a decline in US GDP in Q1. In other US releases, Unemployment Claims were sharp but Pending Home Sales fell short of the estimate. On Friday, there are no major events on the schedule. Today’s highlights are Chicago PMI and Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment.

Thursday, May 29, 2014

US consumer EUR/USD-- USD/JPY

Traders should be prepared for some movement from EUR/USD later on Thursday, as the US releases three market movers  Preliminary GDP, Unemployment Claims and Pending Home Sales. The markets are expecting a decline in the GDP reading, something which hasn’t occurred since 2009. Will the indicator surprise the markets with a gain in Q1? Pending Home Sales are expected to soften in April, while Unemployment Claims are expected to improve this week, after a disappointing performance in the previous release.
The  continues to be optimistic, which is good news for the US recovery. On Tuesday, CB Consumer Confidence continued to look strong as the key indicator improved to 83.0 points in April, which was within expectations. This was the third straight reading above the 80-point level. Meanwhile, the Standard & Poor/Case-Shiller house price index posted a strong gain of 12.4%, surpassing the estimate of 11.9%. The markets are keeping a close eye on Thursday’s events, with the release of Preliminary GDP and the all-important Unemployment Claims.
The Japanese yen is stable on Thursday, as USD/JPY trades in the high-101 range early in the North American session. On the release front, it’s a busy day in both Japan and the US. Japanese Retail Sales slumped in April, posting its sharpest decline in three years. Later in the day, we’ll get a look at Household Spending, Tokyo Core CPI and Preliminary Industrial Production. In the US, Unemployment Claims dropped sharply, while Preliminary GDP posted a rare decline. We’ll get a look at Pending Home Sales later on Thursday.

US economy

US economy now one quarter away from a recession, but analysts are confident that growth will bounce back on strong consumer spending.The US economy contracted for the first time in three years in early 2014 after a much worse performance than originally feared.Washington’s commerce department said the world’s biggest economy shrank at an annual rate of 1% during the first quarter รข€“ a period marked by an unusually harsh winter in some of the more populous states.
Wall Street had been braced for the revised data to come in below the first estimate of 0.1% annualised growth between January and March but was surprised by the extent of the decline.
Analysts are confident that growth will bounce back in the second quarter and pointed to the underlying strength of consumer spending during the period when the economy was contracting.

Wednesday, May 28, 2014

European Central Bank

The European Central Bank said on Wednesday that investors’ pursuit of higher profits could be generating new price bubbles, sounding the alarm as financial markets chase quick gains.
In a strongly-worded message that underscored concerns in Frankfurt about the downside to runaway market enthusiasm, the ECB cautioned that the dash for higher returns could suddenly unravel, sending the investor herd charging in the opposite direction.
“As the search for yields intensifies, so do concerns regarding the build-up of imbalances and the possibility of a sharp and disorderly unwinding of recent investment flows,” the central bank said in a closely-watched biannual report.
With the financial crisis and any fear of a break-up of the euro all but forgotten, governments in debt-strapped countries from Italy to Ireland are finding it ever easier and cheaper to borrow.


  GBP/USD   Daily
Today's trade has seen further breakdown with prices      reaching/breaking  the last swing low at 1.6730. Indicators are at    extremes now so we should see some recovery attempt soon. However, we expect further weakness (after bounce) with next target   sup. at 1.6680. Initial res. is in the 1.6770/80 band.N.I.
R5: 1.6920~   21, 22-May highs
R4: 1.6881 * Tues high
R3: 1.6835/55   intraday level
R2: 1.6815   today high
R1: 1.6770/80   intraday level
S1: 1.6680  15 Apr low
S2: 1.6552 * Apr low
S3: 1.6459 * Mar low

Tuesday, May 27, 2014

Stock market

U.S. stocks were broadly higher, with upbeat economic data helping provide support for the S&P 500's rise to an all-time intraday high. The S&P 500 index climbed eight points, or 0.4%, to 1909. The index hit an intraday high of 1909.55, topping the record of 1902.17 hit on May 13.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 74 points, or 0.3%, to 16663. The Dow was closing in on its May 13 record high close of 16715.44, and its intraday record of 16735.51 hit the same day.
The Nasdaq Composite Index advanced 27 points, or 0.6%, to 4213. The early gains put the benchmark indexes on course for a fourth-straight rise. Stocks appear to have shaken off recent concerns about uneven economic growth, a Federal Reserve that was slowly removing stimulus measures and tensions in Ukraine that have kept the market hemmed in tight trading range over the last couple months. Through last week, the S&P 500 had traded within a 4.5% band since March 4, pushing the CBOE's Market Volatility Index to its lowest close since March 2013. And the Russell 2000 index of small-capitalization stocks, which had underperformed the broad market by a wide margin during that time, is set to outperform the S&P 500 for a third-straight session. The index is up 0.9%, putting it on an early track to close at 4 1/2-week high.


 VIX watchers are looking for the next catalyst which might send the "fear gauge" higher. Most agree it's low relative to history and that generally the VIX doesn't hang at such depths that long. For Peter Boockvar at The Lindsey Group, the key reading for the markets and the VIX this week is Friday's PCE inflation data. He sees prices "much sooner than the Fed is forecasting." A rising-inflation scenario would dent the narrative that the Fed will keep rates lower for the indefinite future and could "hugely influence markets and the VIX," says Boockvar. The VIX closed Friday at 11.36, the lowest finish since March 2013.

Friday, May 23, 2014

Euro lowest level against the dollar

Euro touches its lowest level against the dollar since Feb. 13. ECB President Draghi sparked the common currency's current slump on May 8 with talk about readiness to act at the central bank's June meeting. But the euro's weakness was set long before that, with the Fed tapering QE all while ECB mulled more easing, says Mansoor Mohi-uddin, head of FX strategy at UBS. "The two year shift in the Fed-ECB growth ratio has now reversed," Mohi-uddin says. "The Fed is steadily tapering its asset purchases while LTRO loan repayments are drawing to a close." He forecasts EUR/USD ending the year at 1.25. Euro down 0.2% at $1.3628.


 USD/CHF  Daily
13::00GMT - New high today has been marginal at 0.8972 before prices   settled back. Above here the next significant res. is around 0.9000.  Sup. is at 0.8918. N.I.
R4: 0.9038  12 Feb high
R3: 0.9022 * Feb 13 low
R2: 0.9000  figure
R1: 0.8972  today high
S1: 0.8918  Thurs low
S2: 0.8895  Wed low
S3: 0.8879 * 15 May low
S4: 0.8840/60  intraday level
S5: 0.8815  intraday level

Thursday, May 22, 2014

Mexican inflation

Mexican inflation slowed in the first half of May, as a drop in electricity rates and lower fruit and vegetable prices helped pull down the consumer price index.
The CPI fell 0.37% in the first two weeks of the month, in line with expectations, leading the 12-month rate to ease to 3.44% from 3.5% at the end of April, the National Statistics Institute said on Thursday.The application of summertime electricity subsidies in northern cities and lower prices for tomatoes and limes were partially offset by higher prices of gasoline and other foods.

Learning Gaps

Trading the gaps in the stock and forex markets. Keep watching the candle on your charts for buying or selling pressure will make you a better and more profitable trader.  There are also four types of gaps that traders need to recognize.  Knowing what type of gap you are trying to trade will also increase your positive trades in the markets. One of the big mistakes that cost investors and traders to many losses is trading gaps.  The normal thinking is that when price returns to the prior day’s close, the gap has filled. Sometimes this is correct.
Most amateur traders use that point as an signal to enter a trade as they expect the price to reverse from the previous close. As  the trader quickly discovers this is not the real demand or supply zone and they get stopped out.  Experienced traders have learned to trade like professional traders, they will wait for the real demand or supply zone before entering a position. Those who waited for the news and waited for the price would have found themselves trapped out by the initial spike in prices only to then have to chase a violent price reversal straight after. It is very difficult to trade news especially in the forex markets.
Learning Gaps

Wednesday, May 21, 2014

Demand for gold

Demand for gold has dropped in the first quarter of 2014, weighing on the price of the precious metal. On Tuesday, the World Gold Council released a report which found that global demand for gold had dropped in Q1 to its lowest level in four years. Demand for the metal by China, the largest buyer of gold, slipped by 18% in Q1, and other major purchasers such as India also recorded a drop in demand. Gold tends to react to geopolitical events, and the ongoing crisis in Ukraine could continue to cause volatility in gold prices.
In the US, key indicators have been generally strong, and last week ended with encouraging housing numbers. Building Permits jumped to 1.08 million, well above the estimate of 1.01 million. This was the highest level we’ve seen since December 2006. Housing Starts continues to move higher and climbed to 1.07M, compared to the estimate of 0.98M. This marked a five-month high. Meanwhile, UoM Consumer Sentiment dipped to 81.8 points, short of the estimate of 84.7 points.

Japanese yen USD/JPY

The Japanese yen is showing little movement on Wednesday, as USD/JPY trades in the mid-101 range late in the European session. In Japan, the BOJ issued a relatively upbeat policy statement and said it would maintain current monetary policy. The Japanese current account deficit improved, but still fell short of the estimate. In the US, the Federal Reserve will release the minutes of its recent policy meeting.
There were no surprises from the Bank of Japan policy statement on Wednesday. The Bank noted that the economy continues to recover at a moderate pace, and said that monetary policy would not change. The BOJ has been purchasing 60-70 trillion yen/year in asset purchases, and this aggressive monetary stance has raised inflation and growth levels, but has severely hurt the yen, which continues to trade above the 100 level.

Tuesday, May 20, 2014

Losses for the Australian dollar

 Losses for the Australian dollar against major currencies continue into the US session, leading all G-10 movers. Earlier in the day, Reserve Bank of Australia assistant governor Guy Debelle said he expects lower capital inflows from mining, which have been supporting the currency. The New Zealand dollar continues to follow the Aussie lower. The Australian dollar has fallen 0.8% against the greenback, to US$0.9257, and down 0.8% against the yen, to Y93.85. Kiwi down 0.6% against the buck, to US$0.8576, and down 0.7% against the yen, to Y86.93.

Monday, May 19, 2014

growth concerns

As geopolitical and global growth concerns ramp up, investors have been shifting assets in directions that hurt the dollar. Those global worries have trumped solid US data, leading investors to buy US Treasurys and unload their long-dollar positions, particularly with the yen,The dollar remains near three-month lows against the Japanese currency, down 0.4% at Y101.17. The euro sits 0.2% higher against the greenback, at $1.3725. Ten-year Treasurys up 4/32 to yield 2.504%.

African investors

African investors also continued to boost their presence on the continent, representing 18% of total investment in new -or "greenfield"- projects in 2012, up from 7% in 2007. Unlike their foreign counterparts, who directed most of their attention to the mining sector, investors from the continent preferred financial services, construction and communication projects.
A combination of foreign direct investment, portfolio investment in stock and debt, growing remittances from workers sending money home and improved tax revenues has meant that the continent's overall dependence on foreign aid will continue to shrink as a proportion of its external financing, the report showed. Foreign aid as a proportion of total foreign capital inflows to Africa was set to decline to about 26% in 2014 from 30% the year before, the report said. But foreign aid will continue to increase this year to reach about $55 billion and the poorest African nations rely on it to survive.

Friday, May 16, 2014


“The ECB has now officially joined the increasing list of central banks directly or indirectly targeting their exchange rate since the global financial crisis,” wrote Bank of America Merrill Lynch strategists led by Athanasios Vamvakidis after the meeting.
“The ECB’s references against euro strengthening”rather than calling directly for a weaker currency”to address deflation risks do not cross the line of G20 commitments against beggar-thy-neighbor policies in our view, but certainly are not fully consistent with market-driven exchange rates,” they added. In other words, the ECB isn’t breaking any international taboos of directly intervening in the currency market, but indirectly, it’s talking the euro down.
Talk is one thing, action is another. Strategists say for the euro to continue weakening, Draghi must pull the trigger. The question is what will he do?

Thursday, May 15, 2014

Empire State Manufacturing Survey

The May 2014 Empire State Manufacturing Survey indicates that business conditions improved significantly for New York manufacturers. The headline general business conditions index jumped eighteen points to 19.0, its highest level in nearly four years. The new orders and shipments indexes also posted sharp gains, rising to 10.4 and 17.4, respectively. The unfilled orders index rose to a level close to zero. Price indexes were slightly lower, suggesting a small degree of slowing in price increases, with the prices paid index falling three points to 19.8 and the prices received index falling four points to 6.6. Employment expanded significantly; although the average workweek index held steady at 2.2, the index for number of employees rose thirteen points to 20.9. Indexes for the six-month outlook were highly optimistic, with the future general business conditions index rising to 44.0, its highest level in more than two years.

Wednesday, May 14, 2014

U.S. producer prices posted

U.S. producer prices posted their largest increase in 1-1/2 years in April as the cost of food and trade services surged, hinting at some inflation pressures at the factory gate.
The Labor Department said on Wednesday its seasonally adjusted producer price index for final demand rose 0.6 percent, the biggest gain since September 2012. Producer prices increased 0.5 percent in March.
Economists polled by Reuters had forecast prices received by the nation’s farms, factories and refineries rising 0.2 percent. In the 12 months through April, producer prices advanced 2.1 percent, the biggest gain since March 2012, after rising 1.4 percent in March.
Producer prices have been volatile in recent months, driven by swings in the trade services category. The PPI series was revamped at the start of the year to include services and construction.
Its short history and volatility makes it a bit difficult to discern a trend. While price pressures are creeping up at the factory gate, the overall inflation backdrop remains benign given the slack left over from the recession.
Last month, food prices surged 2.7 percent, the biggest rise since February 2011. That followed a 1.1 percent increase in March and marked the fourth consecutive month of gains in food prices.
A drought in California is putting upward pressure on food prices, leaving Americans confronting higher prices at the supermarket.

RSI Trend Line Charts

 RSI indicator to use it as an indicator to help identify whether trend would continue or if the supply and demand zones were strong enough to hold. While discussing the indicator in detail most traders decided to apply it to the broad markets to see if it had any use as a market trend predictor. This is the modified indicator did prove its worth. As with any technical indicator, the RSI should be used as a confirming indicator, not a decision making tool.  Price and supply and demand should be the only thing you use for your decisions to enter or exit the markets. The RSI offered both positive and negative divergence signals to warn of trend changes before the 2008 credit bubble burst and the 2009 bottom.  The trend changes were confirmed with the RSI moving below 40 bearish  or above 60 bullish .
RSI Trend

Tuesday, May 13, 2014

Money Markets Stock Market News

Money markets rates have moved around in recent weeks as the amount of excess funds held by banks lowered. But much of that appeared to have been the result of typical month end volatility brought on by holidays. They've since stabilized somewhat. One step the ECB could take would be to suspend their weekly funding drains, or sterilizations, that absorb the roughly EUR 170 billion in government bonds on its books from a previous bond purchase program. German and French central bankers have signaled their support. But the effects on short term rates might be limited because banks may simply borrow less from the ECB's regular lending facilities. Economic growth A key question is whether the current period of super low inflation is upending tepid recovery that started last spring. So far it hasn't. In fact, the recovery seems to be gathering steam. Purchasing managers reports and other data point to an acceleration in GDP growth during the first quarter, led by Germany. Retail sales in the bloc grew each month of the first quarter for the best quarterly rise since 2006, according to ING Bank.
That runs counter to one of the telltale signs of excessively low inflation or outright deflation: that consumers delay spending in hopes that prices will fall. Instead, low inflation seems to be giving households a much-needed income and confidence boost. Regulators have attempted to tighten bank rules by forcing them to raise additional capital and by adopting a raft of other rules contained in the Dodd-Frank financial reform law. However, there is growing concern that such rules are forcing financial activity into the "shadow banking" sector, outside the purview of regulators which is partly what led to the crisis in the first place.
Financial News