Friday, February 28, 2020

Canadian economy 2/28

Canadian economy sputtered at the end of 2019, recording 0.3% annualized growth in 4Q, or the weakest performance since mid-2016. One bright spot was a 0.3% month-over-month nonannualized advance in December versus November. If the Bank of Canada was "looking to GDP for a reason to cut they will not find one," says TD Securities. The firm also says its tracking indicates 1Q GDP growth in Canada will come close to the BOC's forecast of a 1.3% annualized advance.

Thursday, February 27, 2020

forex US Dollar 2/28

The US Dollar was modestly stronger overnight. Against the Euro, it was almost unchanged at 1.0885, with the single currency being supported by the unwinding of EUR/Emerging Market carry trades. Sterling gave up its gains, falling 0.85% to 1.2895. Its support eroded by the seemingly intransigent negotiating positions of the UK and Europe ahead of trade talks starting next week. USD/JPY continued to hover around the 110.00 marks as Yen haven flows abated. With 109.50 looming as the next important support.
Over in EM, the offshore and onshore Chinese Yuan continues to be strangely quiet. Onshore Yuan has spent most of this week around 7.0150 offshore Yuan has actually quietly gained against the greenback. USD/CNH falling from 7.0600 to 7.0240. Part of this may be explained by the relatively narrow ranges of the US Dollar against the majors in recent days. The reduction in the number of daily infections in China may also be giving hope that the worst is behind the Mainland. As China returns to work, time will tell. USD/CNH though, has traced out a triple top around 7.0600 that will be challenging to break.

forex EUR/USD 2/27

 Speculative investors have been betting on the euro to fall against the dollar since the start of 2020 so the pair was due to reverse recent declines, Rabobank's Jane Foley says. U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission data show speculators have been building up net short euro positions since the end of January while the market currently holds long dollar positions, Foley says. "Positioning and over-stretched momentum data were therefore suggesting that EUR/USD was ripe for a correction," she says. "Technical indicators suggest that EUR/USD would have to hold above resistance to the 1.0980/1.10 area for the corrective bounce to become more established." EUR/USD rises 0.8% to 1.0974, having earlier reached a 20-day high of 1.0980
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Oil 2/26

Oil
Oil prices continued to stabilize after US crude oil inventories delivered a smaller than expected build.  The weekly inventory increase in stockpiles was only 452,000, much less than the 1.8 million build that was eyed.  Oil companies remain in the danger zone as long as WTI crude is trading in the low-$50s.  Explorers and producers have over $85 billion in debt maturing between now and 2024 and they won’t be able to be profitable if oil does not stabilize soon. 
This is a make-or-break moment for the oil industry and in order for higher oil prices to occur, central banks need to deliver a wrath of stimulus, OPEC + must deliver deeper production cuts next week, the global spread of the virus needs to ease. 

Wednesday, February 26, 2020

forex USD/CAD 2/26



The following assumptions that have been made:
- At least 20 pip forecast
- The key level and chart pattern were at most 5 candles apart at time of identification
 



Symbol : USDCAD   

Direction :
Identified time : 2020-02-26 17:01 GMT
Breakout price : 1.33214
Forecast price : 1.33595
Forecast pips : 38
Probability : 65.93 %
Pattern : Ascending Triangle
Interval : 60 Min

Pattern : Resistance
Interval : 240 Min

forex EUR/ZAR



The following assumptions that have been made:
- At least 20 pip forecast
- The key level and chart pattern were at most 5 candles apart at time of identification
 



Symbol : EURZAR   

Direction :
Identified time : 2020-02-26 13:02 GMT
Breakout price : 16.42943
Forecast price : 16.39604
Forecast pips : 334
Probability : 69.48 %
Pattern : Rising Wedge
Interval : 60 Min

Pattern : Channel Up
Interval : 60 Min

Pattern : Support
Interval : 30 Min

Pattern : Support

Tuesday, February 25, 2020

Forex EUR/CAD 2/25

The following assumptions that have been made:
- At least 20 pip forecast
- The key level and chart pattern were at most 5 candles apart at time of identification
 



Symbol : EURCAD   

Direction :
Identified time : 2020-02-25 15:30 GMT
Breakout price : 1.44145
Forecast price : 1.44383
Forecast pips : 24
Probability : 64.4 %
Pattern : Flag
Interval : 15 Min

Pattern : Resistance
Interval : 30 Min

JPY 2/25

JPY
Currency traders favorite risk aversion trade is getting complicated as Japan’s terrible outlook will likely see the Japanese yen struggle in delivering massive gains during severe risk-off moments. Japan will continue to see huge outflows in the coming the coming months as their growth outlook looks abysmal.

Monday, February 24, 2020

forex EUR/USD falls 2/24

The euro pares losses against the dollar but only briefly after the Ifo institute's gauge of German business morale unexpectedly improved in February. The business sentiment index rose to 96.1 points from 96.0 last month, whereas economists polled by the WSJ expected a figure of 95.3. The assessment of the current situation fell to 98.9 from 99.2 while expectations increased to 93.4 from 92.9 against forecasts of 99.1 and 92.1, respectively. "The German economy seems unaffected by developments surrounding the coronavirus," Ifo President Clemens Fuest says. The survey results suggest economic growth of 0.2% for the first quarter, he says. EUR/USD falls 0.2% on the day to 1.0822, having edged up to 1.0843 shortly after the data from 1.0827

Friday, February 21, 2020

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Traders need to study and think when filtering through information on charts. Find news outlets and brokers that you enjoy and trust, but be willing to listen in on new people and news outlets for the latest information. Follow as many as you like, but realize that there is so much information out there that eventually it will be important to narrow your scope. Stock companies are reacting on social media within seconds of publication, and articles blogs usually follow within minutes. It's a frenzied atmosphere that makes for very difficult terrain to navigate, especially if you are an active investor. And buyers beware, as the information can be wide-ranging and often motivated by hindsight. Keep watching small-cap stocks and China for any hint of money chasing beta to new all-time stock highs. It is all a learning process to making money in the markets.
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Wednesday, February 19, 2020

forex USD/TRY 2/19

The Turkish lira has become more exposed to any events that hurt investor appetite for emerging market assets after the central bank cut interest rates, Commerzbank FX analyst Tatha Ghose says. "We expect the lira to weaken sharply during the next emerging market risk off move," Ghose says. Turkey's real interest rate, the nominal interest rates minus inflation, is negative now after the central bank lowered its one-week repo rate by 50 basis points to 10.75%, Ghose says. USD/TRY rises 0.3% to 6.0796 after earlier hitting its highest level since late May at 6.0809

Tuesday, February 18, 2020

USD/JPY 2/18

Japanese stocks are up, led by gains in electronics and pharmaceutical stocks, as the safe-haven yen weakens slightly. Semiconductor-testing-equipment maker Advantest is up 2.8% and drug maker Daiichi Sankyo is up 2.4%. USD/JPY is at 109.92, compared with 109.75 as of Tuesday's Tokyo stock market close. Meanwhile, cybersecurity company Trend Micro is down 2.9% after its fourth-quarter net profit dropped 23% from a year earlier. Coronavirus-related developments are closely watched, now that the earnings season is over. The Nikkei Stock Average is up 0.5% at 23313.80

Friday, February 14, 2020

forex EUR/ZAR 2/14



The following assumptions that have been made:
- At least 20 pip forecast
- The key level and chart pattern were at most 5 candles apart at time of identification
 



Symbol : EURZAR   

Direction :
Identified time : 2020-02-14 20:45 GMT
Breakout price : 16.13584
Forecast price : 16.11115
Forecast pips : 247
Probability : 64.73 %
Pattern : Channel Up
Interval : 15 Min

Pattern : Support
Interval : 15 Min

Thursday, February 13, 2020

Oil and Gold news 2/13

Oil
Oil prices appear to have stabilized this week on optimism that OPEC + will once again do whatever it takes to tighten output and on hope that the coronavirus peak is nearing despite the sudden jump in cases that stemmed from revised methodology in diagnosing cases. The trajectory of the coronavirus over the next several days could determine if oil prices rise or fall by $5 a barrel.  The global economic slowdown has obviously dealt a tremendous blow to crude demand forecasts, but that could be fully priced in optimism grows that the virus peak is in fact nearing.
Gold
Financial markets remain unsure of the trajectory of new coronavirus cases, but they are starting to become confident that gold prices may rise higher no matter what. Gold, the favored safe-haven trade is benefiting from risk aversion flows following the unexpected increase in new coronavirus cases. If optimism returns that the virus could still be nearing its peak in the coming weeks, the global economic rebound could trigger a weakening dollar that will ultimately support commodity prices.
The most powerful patterns for Forex traders

Wednesday, February 12, 2020

dollar is mixed

The dollar is mixed against its currency peers, rising against the euro following weak eurozone factory data but falling against the Swedish krona and the New Zealand dollar after central banks in those countries held rates steady and sent messages that were less dovish than some had anticipated. The WSJ Dollar Index is little changed at 91.51.

EUR/JPY forex chart 2/12

EUR/JPY
03-Feb-11:00 -> 12-Feb-06:00
Target Level: 119.6815

 
SL: (A) 119.6815 Last TP of Channel Down
RL: (B) 119.9910 Last TP of Channel Down
Target Period: 2 days
 
Interval1 hour
PatternChannel Down
Length118 Candles
Identified12-Feb-06:00

forex chart NZD/USD 2/12

NZD/USD rose the most since December 2 and tested the 100-day moving average at 0.6470. The 200-day moving average sits above at 0.6501.

 NZD/USD Daily Chart

Tuesday, February 11, 2020

forex EUR/USD 1/11

The euro could receive a boost if the next German chancellor favors more fiscal stimulus, MUFG Bank says. Friedrich Merz--the vice president of the CDU party's Economic Council who is expected to enter the race to succeed Angela Merkel as chancellor at next year's election--last week said he favors giving back half of Germany's EUR50 billion budget surplus as a radical tax cut for the public, the Financial Times reported Tuesday. "A potential shift to a looser fiscal policy stance in Germany could ultimately turn out to be more supportive for the euro further down the line," MUFG currency analyst Lee Hardman says. EUR/USD is last flat at 1.0915.

Monday, February 10, 2020

Gold 2/10

Gold for April delivery GCJ20, +0.32% on Comex was up $4.20, or 0.3%, at $1,577.60 an ounce, on track for a fourth consecutive gain after bullion on Friday showed a 0.9% decline for the week based on the most-active contract, according to FactSet data.

March silver SIH20, +0.55%, meanwhile, added 8.3 cents, or 0.5%, to $17.775 an ounce, after putting in a 1.8% weekly drop last week.

Gold “seems poised to make another run at the $1,600 level and if it can get there, we could easily see a failed triple-top pattern open the door for a move to the $1,640 region,” said Moya, in a daily update.

The death toll for the novel strain of coronavirus climbed to more than 900 in mainland China, exceeding that of the severe acute respiratory syndrome, or SARS, that claimed 774 lives and infected about 8,100 people in 2002-03. The World Health Organization warned that the spread could accelerate, with more than 40,000 cases reported as of Monday.
The most powerful patterns for Forex traders

forex chart EUR/ZAR 2/10



The following assumptions that have been made:
- At least 20 pip forecast
- The key level and chart pattern were at most 5 candles apart at time of identification
 



Symbol : EURZAR   

Direction :
Identified time : 2020-02-10 16:01 GMT
Breakout price : 16.40575
Forecast price : 16.3737
Forecast pips : 321
Probability : 61.34 %
Pattern : Triangle
Interval : 60 Min

Pattern : Triangle
Interval : 60 Min