Forex and stock traders are looking for the consistently wrong investor, trader and take the opposite position. This will obviously lead to winning trades for them. All traders have read trading books that point out that increasing volume is good for the continuation of the trend. Many new stock traders will try and fight the trend.
Friday, March 29, 2019
Forex traders
Thursday, March 28, 2019
Canadian dollar 3/28
The Canadian dollar is up slightly on Thursday. Currently, the pair is trading at 1.3435, up 0.25%. On the release front, there are no Canadian events. In the U.S., Final GDP for the fourth quarter is expected in at 2.4%. Unemployment claims is projected to tick lower to 221 thousand. On Friday, Canada releases GDP, while the U.S. will publish consumer spending and inflation data.
Canadian bonds showed an inverted yield curve on Monday, after U.S. treasury bonds showed the same pattern on Friday. This has spooked investors, as the inverted yield curve is a sign of a recession. The Bank of Canada is already in a dovish stance and could follow the Fed and freeze rates for the rest of the year. If the economic slowdown continues, policymakers may have to consider a rate cut in order to stimulate the economy.
Canadian bonds showed an inverted yield curve on Monday, after U.S. treasury bonds showed the same pattern on Friday. This has spooked investors, as the inverted yield curve is a sign of a recession. The Bank of Canada is already in a dovish stance and could follow the Fed and freeze rates for the rest of the year. If the economic slowdown continues, policymakers may have to consider a rate cut in order to stimulate the economy.
Wednesday, March 27, 2019
Oil prices rose on Tuesday
Oil prices rose on Tuesday ahead of the release of the weekly US crude stocks on Wednesday. Last week oil inventories surprised markets with a 9.6-million-barrel drawdown and this week’s report could still show tightening supplies. Disruptions to supplies in Venezuela and another drawdown reported this week are boosting the price of the black stuff.
EUR/USD 3/27
EUR/USD continues to drift this week. In Wednesday trade, the pair is trading at 1.1276, up 0.09% on the day. On the release front, there are no major eurozone or German numbers, but ECB Mario Draghi speaks at an ECB event in Frankfurt. The U.S. releases current account and trade balance. On Thursday, Germany releases CPI and the U.S. publishes GDP and unemployment claims.
German confidence indicators continue to raise concerns about the health of the economy. Consumer climate slipped in March to 10.4 points, after two successive readings of 10.8 points. With the eurozone mired in an economic slowdown and German numbers pointing to weaker growth, it’s not surprising that the German consumer has become less optimistic. On Tuesday, German business confidence improved slightly in March, with a reading of 99.6 points. The markets have been accustomed to releases above the 100-level, and the February reading of 98.5 was the weakest since November 2014. The survey noted that any improvement was confined to domestic sectors, such as construction and retail services.
German confidence indicators continue to raise concerns about the health of the economy. Consumer climate slipped in March to 10.4 points, after two successive readings of 10.8 points. With the eurozone mired in an economic slowdown and German numbers pointing to weaker growth, it’s not surprising that the German consumer has become less optimistic. On Tuesday, German business confidence improved slightly in March, with a reading of 99.6 points. The markets have been accustomed to releases above the 100-level, and the February reading of 98.5 was the weakest since November 2014. The survey noted that any improvement was confined to domestic sectors, such as construction and retail services.
Tuesday, March 26, 2019
EUR/USD continues to drift this week
EUR/USD continues to drift this week. Currently, the pair is trading at 1.1325, up 0.11% on the day. On the release front, German GfK Consumer Climate fell to 10.4, shy of the estimate of 10.8 points. In the U.S., building permits is projected to dip to 1.32 million. CB consumer confidence is expected to improve to 132.1 points.
German consumer confidence disappointed in March. The indicator slipped to 10.4, after two successive readings of 10.8 points. With the eurozone mired in an economic slowdown and German numbers pointing to weaker growth, it’s not surprising that the German consumer is less optimistic. This release comes on the heels of German business confidence, which improved slightly in March, with a reading of 99.6 points. The markets have been accustomed to releases above the 100-level, and the February reading of 98.5 was the weakest since November 2014. The survey noted that any improvement was confined to domestic sectors, such as construction and retail services. The manufacturing sector remains weak, battered down by the ongoing global trade war, which has dampened the appetite for German exports, such as vehicles and auto parts. Germany’s economy slowed down in the fourth quarter, and this bodes poorly for the rest of the eurozone.
German consumer confidence disappointed in March. The indicator slipped to 10.4, after two successive readings of 10.8 points. With the eurozone mired in an economic slowdown and German numbers pointing to weaker growth, it’s not surprising that the German consumer is less optimistic. This release comes on the heels of German business confidence, which improved slightly in March, with a reading of 99.6 points. The markets have been accustomed to releases above the 100-level, and the February reading of 98.5 was the weakest since November 2014. The survey noted that any improvement was confined to domestic sectors, such as construction and retail services. The manufacturing sector remains weak, battered down by the ongoing global trade war, which has dampened the appetite for German exports, such as vehicles and auto parts. Germany’s economy slowed down in the fourth quarter, and this bodes poorly for the rest of the eurozone.
Monday, March 25, 2019
USD/CAD
The Canadian dollar is unchanged on Monday, after USD/CAD rallied late last week. In the North American session, the pair is trading at 1.3430, unchanged on the day. There are no economic indicators on the schedule. In the U.S., we’ll hear from two FOMC members. On Tuesday, the U.S. publishes building permits and CB consumer confidence.
The Canadian dollar ended the week on a sour note, as soft consumer spending data weighed on the currency. Retail sales fell 0.3% in January, marking a third straight decline. Core retail sales gained a negligible 0.1%, shy of the estimate of 0.2%. There was better news on the inflation front, as CPI posted a sharp gain of 0.7% in January, edging above the forecast of 0.6%. The negative effect of weak oil prices has eased, which could bode well for inflation numbers in the first quarter. Still, the outlook for the Canadian economy is cloudy, with the ongoing global trade war weighing on Canada’s export-reliant economy.
Professional Techniques For Short-Term Currency TradingThe Canadian dollar ended the week on a sour note, as soft consumer spending data weighed on the currency. Retail sales fell 0.3% in January, marking a third straight decline. Core retail sales gained a negligible 0.1%, shy of the estimate of 0.2%. There was better news on the inflation front, as CPI posted a sharp gain of 0.7% in January, edging above the forecast of 0.6%. The negative effect of weak oil prices has eased, which could bode well for inflation numbers in the first quarter. Still, the outlook for the Canadian economy is cloudy, with the ongoing global trade war weighing on Canada’s export-reliant economy.
foreign exchange market 3/25
The foreign exchange market is likely to stabilize on Monday after the sell-off in risk assets on Friday on the back of the yield curve inverting in the U.S., says ING. The three-month Treasury yield turned higher than the 10-year last week, prompting investors to worry about the future of the global economy, which then led to a sell-off in emerging market currencies. On Monday, EM currencies stage a recovery against the U.S. dollar, with the Turkish lira leading the way. USD/TRY falls 1.4% to 5.6921. "Although the U.S. yield curve inversion sent shockwaves to markets on Friday, our economists still don't see a U.S. recession either this year or next given the still solid U.S. economy
Friday, March 22, 2019
GBP/USD,,3/22
GBP/USD continues its volatile Brexit ways. The pound saw its initial gains eroded back to test below £1.31, where it has found some support after EU stepped up to avoid a hard Brexit from occurring next week and gave the U.K an extra two week of an ‘unconditional extension’ now set at Apr 12. If the U.K parliament agrees on PM May’s deal, the U.K. will leave the EU on May 22. If it doesn’t, the U.K. will either ask for a longer Brexit extension or crash out without a deal on April 12, the new deadline for Brexit.
Professional Techniques For Short-Term Currency TradingThursday, March 21, 2019
Canadian dollar
The Canadian dollar has edged lower on Thursday, erasing the gains seen a day earlier. Currently, USD/CAD is trading at 1.3336, up 0.23% on the day. On the release front, Canada releases ADP nonfarm payrolls. In the U.S., the Philly Fed Manufacturing Index is expected to rebound with a gain of 4.6, after a rare decline in January. Unemployment claims are projected to dip to 226 thousand. On Friday, Canada releases CPI and retail sales data, so traders should be prepared for movement from USD/CAD.
The Federal Reserve has been in dovish mode since January, but the pessimistic stance at the Wednesday policy meeting was a surprise. The Fed’s rate outlook (dot plot), which is released each quarter, showed that a majority of FOMC members expect no rate hikes in 2019. This was in sharp contrast to the previous quarter’s forecast, in which the FOMC projected two hikes this year.
The rate statement was markedly dovish, stating that economic activity “has slowed”. Policy makers singled out slower growth in household spending and business investment and noted that inflation has decreased due to lower energy prices. The Fed also announced that it would stop reducing its balance sheet by $50 billion a month. This move is a loosening of policy and is intended to stimulate the economy. The new Fed forecast projects GDP growth of 2.1%, down from 2.3% in December.
Coach's Corner Premium is an interactive training service designed to help Forex traders attain Forex trading mastery via video courses, daily analysis videos, weekly webinars and interaction with mentors and other traders.The Federal Reserve has been in dovish mode since January, but the pessimistic stance at the Wednesday policy meeting was a surprise. The Fed’s rate outlook (dot plot), which is released each quarter, showed that a majority of FOMC members expect no rate hikes in 2019. This was in sharp contrast to the previous quarter’s forecast, in which the FOMC projected two hikes this year.
The rate statement was markedly dovish, stating that economic activity “has slowed”. Policy makers singled out slower growth in household spending and business investment and noted that inflation has decreased due to lower energy prices. The Fed also announced that it would stop reducing its balance sheet by $50 billion a month. This move is a loosening of policy and is intended to stimulate the economy. The new Fed forecast projects GDP growth of 2.1%, down from 2.3% in December.
Wednesday, March 20, 2019
U.S. Dollar Index DXY
The central bank’s hawkish monetary policy approach that led to four rate hikes in 2018 proved a continuous engine for dollar strength last year, in particular as other developed world central banks were not yet tightening policy, or not to the same extent.
“The rhetoric since the December forecasts ha changed dramatically. Today’s meeting is about realigning the two. This means that growth and inflation forecasts will be lowered,” said Marc Chandler, chief market strategist at Bannockburn Global Forex, before the update.
The ICE U.S. Dollar Index DXY, -0.58% , which had been up 0.1% ahead of the central bank’s statement, dropped 0.6% to 95.792, touching its lowest level in more than six weeks, according to FactSet.
The euro EURUSD, +0.6166% the greenback’s biggest rival, shot higher on the dollar’s weakness, last buying $1.1442, compared with $1.1353 late Tuesday.
“The rhetoric since the December forecasts ha changed dramatically. Today’s meeting is about realigning the two. This means that growth and inflation forecasts will be lowered,” said Marc Chandler, chief market strategist at Bannockburn Global Forex, before the update.
The ICE U.S. Dollar Index DXY, -0.58% , which had been up 0.1% ahead of the central bank’s statement, dropped 0.6% to 95.792, touching its lowest level in more than six weeks, according to FactSet.
The euro EURUSD, +0.6166% the greenback’s biggest rival, shot higher on the dollar’s weakness, last buying $1.1442, compared with $1.1353 late Tuesday.
EUR/USD
USD/JPY Intraday: Downside prevails. The pair, as shown on a 30-minute chart, remains on the downside after a sharp decline overnight. Trading below the key resistance at 111.10, the pair is also capped by the descending 20-period moving average. And the relative strength index is still subdued in the 30s. Intraday bearishness persists, and the pair should target 110.35 and 110.00 on the downside.
EUR/USD Intraday: Upside prevails. The pair keeps trading on the upside following a sharp bounce overnight. It is currently not far away from a high of 1.1448 seen yesterday while the bullish intraday outlook is being maintained by those well-directed technical indicators (20-period, 50-period moving averages, and relative strength index). Staying above the key support at 1.1390, the pair should revisit 1.1450 (around the high of yesterday) before advancing toward 1.1475.
AUD/USD Intraday: Further advance. The pair broke above a declining trend line drawn from March 18 turning the intraday outlook bullish. Currently it continues to strike against the upper Bollinger band calling for acceleration to the upside. Support is provided by the ascending 20-period moving average, which stands above the 50-period one. Unless the key support at 0.7110 (a reaction low) is breached, the pair should charge higher toward 0.7180 and 0.7210 on the upside.
Wednesday, March 6, 2019
Gold prices
Gold prices fell for the seventh straight session yesterday, partly due to a stronger dollar. Gold futures (/GC) were down 0.3% at $1283.90 a troy ounce. Oil prices declined slightly Tuesday, sticking to a narrow trading range as stock markets moved sideways and investors awaited weekly government data on U.S. oil inventories. U.S. crude oil futures (/CL) closed 0.1% lower yesterday, and settled at $56.56 per barrel.
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