Monday, July 11, 2016

USD/CAD gained 0.541

The USD/CAD gained 0.541 percent in the last 24 hours. The pair is trading at 1.3110. The loonie has not recovered from the impact of the massive U.S. jobs report on Friday. The U.S. non farm payrolls (NFP) report added 287,000 in June with a 4.9 percent unemployment rate. The Canadian Labour Force survey also released last Friday shows a drop in unemployment to 6.8 percent even as the economy lost 700 jobs this month. The lower unemployment rate is explained by a drop in the participation rate to a 16 year low of 65.5 percent. The divergent path of employment in both sides of the border plus the softness of energy prices will keep the CAD under pressure.
The big market event for the loonie will come on Wednesday, July 13 at 10:00 am EDT when the Bank of Canada (BoC) releases its rate statement. No changes are expected for the Canadian benchmark interest rate, but the tone of the quarterly monetary policy report and later in the press conference with Governor Stephen Poloz will the main focus. The market is expecting a more dovish tone from the BoC which could be preparing investors for an eventual rate cut in the fall if there are not obvious positive impact from the fiscal stimulus package announced in March from the government.