Thursday, January 31, 2019

U.S. equities 1/31

U.S. equities surged higher after Federal Reserve Chairman Powell made remarks about remaining patient on raising interest rates.  The Fed left interest rates unchanged and indicated that further rate hikes were on hold.  Stocks started the day higher after positive earnings results from Apple (AAPL) and Advanced Micro Devices (AMD), and accelerated higher after the cautious comments from Chairman Powell.   Low expectations and optimistic comments from CEO Tim Cook, sent shares of Apple almost 7% higher, after a downbeat earnings report.  Aerospace giant, Boeing (BA) gained 6.3% after beating estimates and a positive outlook for 2019.  On the day, the Dow Jones Industrials ($DJI) gained 1.8% to 25014, the Nasdaq Composite (COMP) rose 2.2% to 7183, and the S&P 500 (SPX) added 1.6% to 2681.

Friday, January 25, 2019

SBUX

Shares of Starbucks Corp. $SBUX are staying caffeinated after the company's strong earnings report Thursday evening. The stock reported earnings of $0.75 per share, topping the consensus forecast by $0.10 and rising 15.4%.

Gold Futures (/GC) 1/25

Gold Futures (/GC) are tracking higher near $1288 an ounce in reaction to a softer U.S. dollar despite some notable progress being made to resolve the impending Government shutdown.  Energy prices (/CL) are holding steady near $53 with investors keeping a close eye on fresh developments out of oil-rich Venezuela as two different President elects remain in a tug-of-war over power. The U.S. has already discussed potential oil sanctions which could create more short-term demand. Natural Gas (/NG) futures are trading 1.25% lower near the $3 threshold despite an Arctic cold spell that is set to cripple much of the mid-west through next week. 

Wednesday, January 23, 2019

Gold Futures (/GC)

Gold Futures (/GC) are slipping near the $1280 an ounce range as upbeat equities tarnish the value of the precious metal which has remained bid amid the government shutdown. Energy prices (/CL) are up slightly with crude back above $53 a barrel after suffering a 1% defeat to start out the shorted week yesterday over demand concerns. 

Tuesday, January 22, 2019

10-year bond yield 1/22

The nominal spread between the 10-year bond yield and short-term interest rates -- the so-called "yield-curve spread" -- has been closing since 2014 and is now at a 10-year low. Many believe this signals a U.S. economy headed for recession. But other leading indicators do not point to a sharp slowdown. For example, the nominal spread fails to take inflation into account. On this measure, the real, inflation-adjusted level of bond yields remains historically low versus five-year inflation, and the real level of short-term rates is finally above zero, but only by 40 basis points. We think that Leading Economic Indicators are better predictors than the yield curve. One-year growth for the LEIs is a very robust 5%.

Friday, January 18, 2019

Atlassian Corp. (TEAM 1/18

Atlassian Corp. (TEAM) shares rallied in the extended session Thursday after the business productivity software company's results and outlook topped Wall Street estimates. Atlassian shares surged 5.1% after hours, following a 1.5% decline to close the regular session at $92.92. The company reported fiscal second-quarter net income of $45.2 million, or 18 cents a share, compared with a loss of $64.2 million, or 28 cents a share, in the year-ago period. Adjusted earnings were 25 cents a share. Revenue rose to $299 million from $214.6 million in the year-ago quarter. Analysts surveyed by FactSet had forecast earnings of 21 cents a share on revenue of $288.3 million. For the third quarter, Atlassian expects earnings of about 18 cents a share on revenue of $303 million to $305 million, while analysts forecast 17 cents a share on revenu e of $300.7 million.

Wednesday, January 16, 2019

10 year treasury yield (TNX

The 10 year treasury yield (TNX) has ticked up to 2.72% following the implications of the Brexit defeat. Mortgage applications surged 13.5% last week thanks to the recent relief in interest rates as some buyers return to the market after painfully slow holiday inaction.  Refinances primarily drove the welcomed result with a 19% increase in new applications. 

Tuesday, January 15, 2019

Natural Gas futures (/NG) 1/15

Forecasts of much colder weather, sent Natural Gas futures (/NG) to their biggest one day gain in two months.  Nat. gas futures for February surged 16% higher to $3.5910.  The natural gas market is 22% higher in 2019.  After a milder than normal December and early January, prices could continue to be volatile. The Energy Information Administration (EIA) will report on gas storage on Thursday.

Thursday, January 10, 2019

Bed Bath & Beyond Inc. (BBBY)

Bed Bath & Beyond Inc. (BBBY) shares rocketed higher in the extended session Wednesday after the home-furnishings retailer's outlook topped Wall Street estimates. Bed Bath & Beyond shares rallied 22% after hours, following a 4.1% rise to close the regular session at $12.26. In a statement, the company said it expects "fiscal 2019 net earnings per diluted share will be about the same as fiscal 2018." Bed Bath & Beyond estimates fiscal 2018 earnings of "about $2" a share. Analysts surveyed by FactSet expect earnings of $1.99 a share for fiscal 2018, and $1.56 a share for fiscal 2019. The company reported fiscal third-quarter net income of $24.4 million, or 18 cents a share, compared with $61.3 million, or 44 cents a share, in the year-ago period. Revenue rose to $3.03 billion from $2.95 billion in the year-ago quarter. Analysts surveyed by FactSet had forecast earnings of 18 cents a share on revenue of $3.05 billion.

Tuesday, January 8, 2019

Crude oil prices 1/8

U.S. Crude oil prices rose for a sixth straight session yesterday, which marks the longest daily rally since July 2017.  U.S. Crude oil futures (/CL) had reached an intraday high of $49.79, after it was reported that Saudi Arabia was planning to make new cuts to its crude oil exports.  U.S. Natural Gas futures (/NG) fell to their lowest level in almost four months.  Warmer than average temperatures and a bearish report on the amount of natural gas in storage has weighed on the market.  February Natural gas futures lost 3.3% on Monday, to close at $2.949.

Thursday, January 3, 2019

Gold Futures (/GC) 1/3

Gold Futures (/GC) are still climbing yet another 0.5% near $1290 an ounce with a 5th day of gains looking viable with additional concerns over risk-based assets. The precious metal has been unable to touch above $1300 an ounce since June of last year with the strengething dollar.  Oil Futures (/CL) are showing preliminary signals of possibly turning the corner with an attempt at a 3rd positive session after a strong reversal to the upside occurred on the first trading session of the new year.