Friday, April 25, 2014

Russian bonds yields

Naturally, Russian bonds yields are trading higher after the downgrade to just above junk status. The Central Bank of Russia (CBR) was expected to leave rates on hold at +7%, nonetheless bank officials deemed it necessary to hike the key policy by 50bps to +7.5%. From a Russian perspective, further aggressive rate hikes are neither welcome nor warranted given the obvious slowdown in growth. However, it may be a necessity given that the capital outflows from Russia are likely to accelerate over the coming months. The CBR may have no choice but to resort to capital controls or higher interest rates. CBR officials estimated that the net capital outflow for the first quarter at $64B to be the same as the whole of 2013.