Tuesday, March 4, 2014
After swinging back and forth between net-long and net-short positions since the start of the year, JPMorgan's active Treasury clients came out dead even in the latest weekly survey. With the 23% pro-Treasury accounts offsetting the 23% anti-Treasury accounts, those neutral on the market remained dominant at 54%. Such a divided stance reflects how uncertain the near-term forecast is, since most still believe yields will rise later this year. Weather-impacted data threaten to pause Fed tapering, while concerns about Ukraine spur flights to safety, hurting the mountain of short bets stacked up against Treasurys when 2014 started.