After swinging back and forth between net-long and net-short positions since the start of the year, JPMorgan's active Treasury clients came out dead even in the latest weekly survey. With the 23% pro-Treasury accounts offsetting the 23% anti-Treasury accounts, those neutral on the market remained dominant at 54%. Such a divided stance reflects how uncertain the near-term forecast is, since most still believe yields will rise later this year. Weather-impacted data threaten to pause Fed tapering, while concerns about Ukraine spur flights to safety, hurting the mountain of short bets stacked up against Treasurys when 2014 started.
Forex and stock traders are looking for the consistently wrong investor, trader and take the opposite position. This will obviously lead to winning trades for them. All traders have read trading books that point out that increasing volume is good for the continuation of the trend. Many new stock traders will try and fight the trend.
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