Japanese yen has posted small gains on Monday

The Japanese yen has posted small gains on Monday. Currently, USD/JPY is trading slightly above the 102 line. On the release front, The US will release the Core PCE Price Index and Personal Spending. In Japan, the focus is on consumer spending indicators, with the release of Household Spending and Retail Sales. On Tuesday, the US will release CB Consumer Confidence, a key indicator.
•USD/JPY posted slight gains in the Asian session and has showed limited movement in European trade
•102.36 was tested in resistance earlier and could break in the North American session
•101.20 is providing support
•Current range:101.20 to 102.36
Further levels in both directions:
•Below: 101.20, 99.71, 98.95 and 97.78
• Above: 102.36, 103.73 and 104.99
USD/JPY ratio is showing little movement, consistent with the lack of movement from USD/JPY. Currently, long positions have a strong majority (71%), indicative of trader bias towards USD/JPY continuing to move to higher ground.

GBP/Frank

Summary :
Target Level : 1.2749
Target Period : 2 days
Analysis :
Rising Wedge identified at 29-Aug-04:00 2016 GMT. This pattern is still in the process of forming. Possible bearish price movement towards the support 1.2749 within the next 2 days.
Supporting Indicators :
RSI above 60
Resistance Levels :
( B ) 1.2854Last resistance turning point of Rising Wedge.
Support Levels
( A ) 1.2749Last support turning point of Rising Wedge.

Chart date range : 11-Aug-16:00 GMT-> 29-Aug-08:00 GMT Data interval : 4 hour RSI: 34 Candles MA: 34 Candles

Diversification and the dollar overhang.

Precious metals are notoriously difficult to trade. Even traders turn out to be right, knowing when to place and press your bets won't be easy. Gold and silver are small, fairly illiquid markets relative to the kinds of positions the biggest "macro tourists"  non-professional investors  have on. If you want to know what is happening in the money supply, look to the lending portions of the economy, not base money, to get the real story.
The Fed wants to see lower prices of stocks and commodities and it seems that they will. The situation for gold is also rather bearish for the medium term as the gold-to-bonds and Dow-to-gold ratio charts suggest that another decline may be in the cards.
While the physical silver market goes far beyond APMEX, both domestically and especially internationally, the buying habits of the (large) APMEX client base could be considered a decent proxy for the overall retail market. The APMEX Top 40 Best Sellers page lists several silver coins and rounds, along with gold, palladium, and platinum products. Disregarding fractionals, the silver coins and rounds were listed in the following order, as of May 25:
1. APMEX Silver Round (Legally, issues by private minters are not considered "coins" at all and must be referred to as "rounds.")
2. Silver American Eagle
3. Silver Canadian Maple Leaf
4. Silver Mexican Libertad
5. Morgan / Peace Silver Dollar

Gold prices Silver prices

GBP/USD showed limited movement

•GBP/USD showed limited movement in the Asian session and posted small losses on EUR/USD. The pair is unchanged early in North American trade
•1.3142 is providing support
•1.3219 remains fluid. This line has switched to a resistance role following slight losses by GBP/USD
Further levels in both directions:
•Below: 1.3142, 1.3064 and 1.2938
•Above: 1.3219, 1.3327, 1.3480 and 1.3533
•Current range: 1.3142 to 1.3219
GBP/USD ratio has shown slight movement towards short positions. Currently, long and short positions are evenly split, indicative of a lack trader bias as to what direction GBP/USD will take next.
GBP/USD is trading quietly at the 1.32 line on Thursday, continuing the lack of movement which has characterized the pair all week. On the release front, British CBI Realized Sales posted a strong gain of plus -9, well above expectations. Over in the US, durable goods reports and unemployment claims beat their estimates. On Friday, the US releases Primary GDP and we’ll also hear from Federal Reserve chair Janet Yellen at the Jackson Hole conference.

USD/JPY has shown limited movement in the Asian

•USD/JPY has shown limited movement in the Asian and European sessions
•99.71 is providing support
•101.20 remains a strong resistance line
•Current range: 99.71 to 101.20
Further levels in both directions:
•Below: 99.71, 98.95 and 97.78
• Above: 101.20, 102.36, 103.73 and 104.9
USD/JPY ratio is unchanged on Thursday, consistent with the lack of movement from USD/JPY. Currently, long positions have a strong majority (72%), indicative of trader bias towards USD/JPY breaking out and moving to higher ground.
The Japanese yen is showing little movement on Thursday, continuing an uneventful week. Currently, USD/JPY is trading at 100.40. On the release front, Japanese SPPI posted a gain of 0.4%, beating the estimate of 0.1%. Japan will release more inflation during the day, highlighted by Tokyo Core CPI. Over in the US, there are two key releases – durable good reports and unemployment claims. On Friday, the US releases Primary GDP and we’ll also hear from Federal Reserve chair Janet Yellen at the Jackson Hole conference.

Broad gains in the pound cause EUR/GBP

 Broad gains in the pound cause EUR/GBP to fall 0.8%, breaking below 0.85 to hit a two-week low of 0.8496. More falls could see it target the 50-day moving average at 0.8373 and the Aug. 4 low of 0.8344. EUR/GBP currently hovers just above chart support at 0.8488, the 50% retracement of its rise from the July 14 low of 0.8250 to a peak of 0.8726 hit on Aug. 16. The 61.8% retracement of that move is another chart support level, which stands at 0.8431.

GBP/USD was flat in the Asian session

•GBP/USD was flat in the Asian session. The pair has posted strong gains in European trade
•There is resistance at 1.3327
•1.3219 remains fluid. This line switched to a support role following gains by GBP/USD
Further levels in both directions:
•Below: 1.3219, 1.3142, 1.3064 and 1.2938
•Above: 1.3327, 1.3480 and 1.3533
•Current range: 1.3327 to 1.3533
GBP/USD ratio is unchanged, consistent with the lack of movement from GBP/USD. Currently, long positions have a slight majority (53%), indicative of trader bias towards GBP/USD continuing to move upwards.The British pound has edged above the 1.32 line on Wednesday, continuing the upward movement which has marked GBP/USD this week. The pair is currently trading at 1.3220. On the release front, British BBA Mortgage Approvals dropped to 37.5 thousand, short of expectations. In the US, today’s highlight is Existing Home Sales, with the indicator expected to dip to 5.52 million. On Thursday, the US releases two key events – Core Durable Goods report and Unemployment Claims.

CAD/NOK

 Recent large oil price swings due to speculation over whether the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries will agree an output cut or freeze argue against trading oil-linked currencies, except against each other, Morgan Stanley says. "We prefer not to trade oil currencies outright at the moment due to the wild swings created by headlines from OPEC members suggesting they could look for a production freeze," says Morgan Stanley. Its preferred trade in these currencies is to short CAD/NOK. CAD/NOK on Wednesday hit a one-week low of 6.3323. A move below the Aug. 11 low of 6.3028 would mark its lowest level since June 6.

AUD/USD posted slight losses in the Asian session.

•AUD/USD posted slight losses in the Asian session. The pair recovered these losses in the European session and has posted slight gains in North American trade
•There is resistance at 0.7701
•0.7560 is providing support
•Current range: 0.7560 to 0.7701
Further levels in both directions:
•Below: 0.7560, 0.7440 and 0.7339
•Above: 0.7701, 0.7835, 0.7938 and 0.8045
AUD/USD ratio is unchanged on Monday. Currently, short positions have a small majority (53%), indicative of slight trader bias towards the pair continuing to move upwards.
The Australian dollar has edged higher, as the markets search for economic cues at the start of the trading week. In Monday’s North American session, the pair is trading at 0.7630. The only Australian release is the CB Leading Index, which posted a small gain of 0.1%. There are no US events on Monday. On Tuesday, Australia releases Construction Work Done, while the US will release New Home Sales, a key indicator.
There was good news from the Australian labor market last week, as employment numbers sparkled in July. Employment Change jumped 26.2 thousand, crushing the estimate of 10.2 thousand. This marked the sharpest gain since October 2015. However, the rise was made up of part-time jobs, as full-time positions actually dropped. There was also positive news from the unemployment rate, which dipped to 5.7%, down from 5.8% a month earlier. The strong job numbers will be welcome news to the RBA, which cut rates to an all-time low of 1.50% earlier this month and would like to avoid another cut at its next policy meeting in September.

USD/JPY drop to 95 is "a serious risk,"

An imminent USD/JPY drop to 95 is "a serious risk," says Societe Generale options strategist Olivier Korber. As protection, he advises buying a 6-week put strike at 97, with a knock-out at 93, where the loss is limited to the premium but the option is cancelled if USD/JPY hits 93. "USD/JPY currently presents a very assymetric profile, with the next move likely to be either a small bounce or a sharp break towards 95." Although Societe Generale is bullish USD/JPY medium-term, a "patient" Federal Reserve could leave the dollar under pressure, while the Bank of Japan may struggle to fight JPY strength, says SocGen. USD/JPY trades at 100.43

XAU/USD was flat in the Asian session.

•XAU/USD was flat in the Asian session. The pair has posted slight losses in the European and North American sessions
•There is resistance at 1361
•1331 is providing support. This line could face pressure in the North American session
•Current range: 1331 to 1361
Further levels in both directions:
•Below: 1331, 1307 and 1279
•Above: 1361, 1388, 1416 and 1447
XAU/USD ratio is showing movement towards long positions. Currently, long positions command a strong majority (64%), indicative of trader bias towards XAU/USD reversing directions and moving upwards.
Gold prices are lower on Friday, as the metal trades at $1339.52 in the North American session. It’s a quiet end to the trading week, with no US releases on the schedule.
US indicators were positive on Thursday and continue to boost the US dollar. US unemployment claims dropped to 262 thousand, beating the forecast of 269 thousand. This marked a five-week low for the key indicator and points to a labor market that is not only robust, but is approaching full capacity. On the manufacturing front, the Philly Fed Manufacturing  Index gained 2.0 points, rebounding nicely from a decline of -2.9 points in the previous release. This figure beat the estimate of 1.4 points.

AUD/USD

•AUD/USD posted considerable losses in the Asian and European sessions. The pair is unchanged early in North American trade
•0.7701 has strengthened in resistance following losses from AUD/USD
•0.7560 is providing support
•Current range: 0.7560 to 0.7701
Further levels in both directions:
•Below: 0.7560, 0.7440 and 0.7339
•Above: 0.7701, 0.7835, 0.7938 and 0.8045
AUD/USD ratio is showing little movement on Friday. Currently, short positions have a small majority (52%), indicative of slight trader bias towards the pair reversing directions and moving upwards.
The Australian dollar has posted considerable losses on Friday. Early in the North American session, the pair is trading just above the 0.76 level. There are no Australian or US releases on the schedule.
US numbers were positive on Thursday, and continue to boost the US dollar. US unemployment claims dropped to 262 thousand, beating the forecast of 269 thousand. This marked a five-week low for the key indicator and points to a labor market that is not only robust, but is approaching full capacity. On the manufacturing front, the Philly Fed Manufacturing  Index gained 2.0 points, rebounding nicely from a decline of -2.9 points in the previous release. This figure beat the estimate of 1.4 points.
In Australia employment numbers sparkled in July. Employment Change jumped 26.2 thousand, crushing the estimate of 10.2 thousand. This marked the sharpest gain since October 2015. However, the rise was made up of part-time jobs, as full-time positions actually dropped.

GBP/USD

•GBP/USD has posted slight losses in both the Asian and European sessions. The pair has posted considerable losses in North American trade
•1.3064 is under strong pressure in support. This line could break in the North American session
•1.3142 has strengthened in resistance following sharp losses by GBP/USD on Friday
Further levels in both directions:
•Below: 1.3064, 1.2938 and 1.2865
•Above: 1.3142, 1.3219, 1.3327 and 1.3480
•Current range: 1.3064 to 1.3142
The British pound has posted sharp losses on Friday, reversing directions after strong gains on Thursday. Early in the North American session, GBP/USD is trading at 1.3060. On the release front, it’s a quiet end to the week, with just one UK release. Public Sector Net Borrowing posted a surplus of GBP 1.5 billion in July, well above expectations. There are no US events on the schedule.

Brent crude has been cruising higher over the last couple of sessions

Brent crude has been cruising higher over the last couple of sessions, taking out some significant resistance levels with relative ease along the way and now finds itself trading at a one-month high.
The tests have been coming thick and fast for Brent in recent days and the next one isn’t far behind. The break through $46.50-46.70 was very significant – taking out prior support and resistance, retracement levels and moving average – but the next test could be more significant again.

 

EUR/USD ratio is unchanged on Monday

•EUR/USD has shown limited movement in the Asian and European sessions
• 1.1278 is a strong resistance line
• 1.1150 remains fluid. It is a weak support and could break in the Monday session
Further levels in both directions:
•Below: 1.1150, 1.1054, 1.0925 and 1.0821
•Above: 1.1278, 1.1376 and 1.1467
•Current range: 1.1150 to 1.1278
•
EUR/USD ratio is unchanged on Monday, consistent with the lack of movement from EUR/USD. Currently, short positions have a strong majority (56%), indicative of trader bias towards EUR/USD breaking out and moving to lower levels.
The euro is showing limited movement on Monday, as EUR/USD trades at 1.1170. With French and Italian markets on holidays, we can expect an uneventful day from the pair. There are no Eurozone events on the schedule. Later in the day, the US will release the Empire State Manufacturing Index, with the indicator expected to improve to 2.1 points. Tuesday promises to be busier, with the release of German ZEW Economic Sentiment. The key indicator plunged in July by 6.8 points, reflecting market turmoil after the surprise Brexit vote in late June. Also on Tuesday, the US will release Building Permits and consumer inflation reports.

AUD/USD has shown limited movement

AUD/USD ratio is unchanged on Thursday, consistent with the lack of movement from AUD/USD. Short positions have a majority (55%), indicative of trader bias towards the pair breaking out and moving ground.
•AUD/USD has shown limited movement throughout the Thursday session
•There is resistance at 0.7835
•0.7701 was tested earlier in support. This line remains fluid and could see further action in the North American session
•Current range: 0.7701 to 0.7835
Further levels in both directions:
•Below: 0.7701, 0.7560, 0.7440 and 0.7339
•Above: 0.7835, 0.7938 and 0.8045
The Australian dollar is almost unchanged on Thursday after gaining 50 points on Wednesday. In the North American session, AUD/USD is trading slightly above the 0.77 level. On the release front, it’s another quiet day. Australian MI Inflation Expectations dipped to 3.5%. There was more good news from the US labor market, as Unemployment Claims dropped to 266 thousand, beating expectations. Friday will be busy, as the US releases key retail sales, CPI and consumer confidence reports. Any unexpected readings could affect the movement of AUD/USD.

EUR/USD ratio is showing slight gains

The euro has posted moderate losses on Thursday, erasing most of the gains seen in the Wednesday session. Currently, EUR/USD is trading at 1.1140. In economic news, French Final CPI declined 0.4%, matching the forecast. Today’s key event is US Unemployment Claims, with the indicator expected to edge higher to 272 thousand. Friday will be busy, with Germany releasing Preliminary GDP, and the US publishing CPI and Retail Sales reports, as well as the UoM Consumer Sentiment report.EUR/USD ratio is showing slight gains in short positions. Currently, short positions have a strong majority (61%), indicative of trader bias towards EUR/USD continuing to move to lower levels.

USD/CAD trades

The Canadian dollar has posted small gains on Thursday, as USD/CAD trades at 1.3050. On the release front, Canada will release the New Housing Price Index, with the markets braced for a weak gain of 0.2%. Today’s key event is US Unemployment Claims, with the indicator expected to edge higher to 272 thousand. On Friday the US will release CPI and Retail Sales reports, as well as the UoM Consumer Sentiment report. USD/CAD ratio is showing long positions with a strong majority (58%), indicative of trader bias towards USD/CAD reversing directions and moving to lower levels.

USD/CAD has shown limited movement in the Asian and European sessions

 1.2990 is providing support

 1.3081 was under strong pressure in resistance earlier and is a weak line. It could see further action in the North American session

Further levels in both directions:

• Below: 1.2990, 1.2900 and 1.2780
• Above: 1.3081, 1.3219 and 1.3353
• Current range: 1.2990 to 1.3081

GBP/USD ratio

GBP/USD ratio is showing little movement on Wednesday. Long positions command a majority (57%), indicative of trader bias towards GBP/USD continuing to move to higher ground.The British pound has posted considerable gains on Wednesday. GBP/USD is currently trading slightly below the 1.31 level. On the release front, NIESR GDP Estimate dipped to 0.3%. Later in the day, the UK will release RICS House Balance, which provides a snapshot of the level of activity in the housing sector. Over in the US, today’s highlight is JOLTS Job Openings. This important employment indicator is expected to edge higher to 5.52 million. On Thursday, the US will release Unemployment Claims.

USD/JPY ratio is showing gains in short positions on Tuesday

USD/JPY ratio is showing gains in short positions on Tuesday. Currently, long positions have a strong majority (66%), indicative of trader bias towards USD/JPY breaking out and moving to higher ground.•USD/JPY has shown limited movement in the Asian and European sessions. The pair has posted slight losses in the North American session
•102.36 was tested earlier in resistance and is a weak line
•101.20 is providing support
•Current range: 101.20 to 102.36
The Japanese yen continues to have a quiet week and has posted small losses in the Tuesday session. In the North American session, USD/JPY is currently trading at the 102 line. On the release front, Japanese Preliminary Machine Tool Orders posted another sharp decline. Later in the day, Japan releases the Producer Price Index, which measures inflation in the manufacturing sector. The markets are braced for a sharp decline of 4.0%. In the US, there are no major events on the schedule. Preliminary Unit Labor Costs declined 0.5%, while Preliminary Nonfarm Productivity posted a gain of 2.0%.

Gold prices fell for the second session in a row Monday

Gold prices fell for the second session in a row Monday, as auspicious U.S. employment data released Friday curbed haven demand.
Gold for December delivery was recently down 0.3% at $1,340.80 a troy ounce on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange.
The precious metal sustained its largest one-day loss since late May on Friday, following the announcement that the U.S. added 255,000 jobs in July that also boosted the possibility that the Federal Reserve could raise benchmark interest rates as soon as September. The nonfarm employment figure exceeded analysts' expectations of 179,000 new jobs.
"It's a classic narrative, but as employment and bond yields are improving [in the U.S.], it's more expensive to hold gold," said Bernard Dahdah, a precious metals analyst at Natixis.
Higher interest rates tend to weigh on the price of gold, which doesn't accrue interest and struggles to compete with yield-bearing investments.
The probability of the Fed raising rates this year has increased to 47%, Commerzbank said in a note to clients, citing Fed Fund Futures.

AUD/USD ratio is showing little movement on Monday

AUD/USD ratio is showing little movement on Monday. Long and short positions are close to an even split, indicative of a lack of trader bias as to what direction the pair will take next.•AUD/USD was flat in the Asian session and posted slight gains in European trade. The pair has posted gains early in the North American session
•0.7560 is providing support
•There is resistance at 0.7701
•Current range: 0.7560 to 0.7701
Further levels in both directions:
•Below: 0.7560, 0.7440, 0.7339 and 0.7251
•Above: 0.7701, 0.7835 and 0.7938
The Australian dollar has edged higher on Monday, erasing the losses which marked the Friday session. Early in the North American session, AUD/USD is trading at 0.7650. In economic news, Australian ANZ Job Advertisements declined 0.8%. Later on Monday, we’ll get a look at NAB Business Confidence. In the US, the sole event on the schedule is the Labor Market Conditions Index. The indicator has recorded five straight declines. Will we see a move into positive territory?

USD/JPY trades up 0.7% at 102.53

 USD/JPY trades up 0.7% at 102.53, as the dollar gains in the wake of Friday's stronger-than-expected U.S. jobs data. Boris Schlossberg, managing director of FX strategy at BK Asset Management thinks a September U.S. rate hike is unlikely, but says further strong U.S. data raises the prospect of a strong hint in September of a rate hike in December. "The key to that thesis is the quality of U.S. data over the next few weeks. If it proves supportive, starting with the retail sales this Friday the USD/JPY ... could climb towards the 104.00 figure

Sterling is set to fall further against the dollar

Sterling is set to fall further against the dollar in the medium to long term due to the uncertainty following the U.K.’s vote to leave the European Union. In fact, the currency is expected to hit $1.25 sooner than later, a number of analysts told CNBC.
“I have a 1.25 forecast for GBP/USD over the next three months. If the data remains weak, that forecast risks being revised further lower,” Jeremy Stretch, head of G10 FX strategy at CIBC Capital Markets told CNBC via email.
“The recalibration of macro assumptions post-Brexit has yet to force the Bank of England to forecast annual negative growth. However, the scale of the immediate growth revisions has prompted an aggressive policy response, in large part as the bank attempts to get ahead of what is expected to be increasingly weak real economy data.”

GBP/USD Chart

Summary :
Target Level : 1.3385
Target Period : 3 days
Analysis :
Ascending Triangle has broken through the resistance line at 02-Aug-16:00 2016 GMT. Possible bullish price movement forecast for the next 3 days towards 1.338.
Supporting Indicators :
Upward sloping Moving Average
Resistance Levels :
Support Levels
( A ) 1.3172Last support turning point of Ascending Triangle.

Chart date range : 14-Jul-08:00 GMT-> 04-Aug-08:00 GMT Data interval : 4 hour RSI: 34 Candles MA: 34 Candles

Crude Oil Inventories surprised the markets with a surplus of 1.4 million last week

US crude is trading just below the $40 level on Wednesday. In the North American session, WTI/USD futures are trading at $39.97 Brent crude is trading at $42.54, as the Brent premium has widened t0 $2.57. On the release front, Crude Oil Inventories gained 1.4 million, surprising the markets which had expected a decline. ADP Nonfarm Payrolls improved to 179 thousand, beating the estimate. The ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI came in at 55.5 points, short of expectations. On Thursday, the US releases Unemployment Claims and the RBA will publish a monetary policy statement.
Crude Oil Inventories surprised the markets with a surplus of 1.4 million last week. The estimate stood at -1.6 million. The gain underscores the oversupply of crude on world markets, which has weighed on oil prices. US crude has broken below the symbolic $40 level, and with producer countries showing little appetite to curb output, the downturn in prices could continue.

The British pound is showing little movement on Wednesday

The British pound is showing little movement on Wednesday. Early in the North American session, GBP/USD is trading at 1.3340. On the release front, it’s a quiet day. British Construction PMI was unchanged at 47.4 points, matching the forecast. In the US, there are two key indicators on the schedule. ADP Nonfarm Employment Change improved to 179 thousand, beating expectations. Later in the day, the US releases ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI. On Thursday, we could see some volatility from the pound, as the the BoE is widely expected to lower interest rates, Over in the US, the key event is Unemployment Claims.
•GBP/USD has shown limited movement in the Wednesday session
•1.3219 is providing strong support
•1.3359 was tested earlier in resistance and is a weak line. It could break in the North American session
Further levels in both directions:
•Below: 1.3219, 1.3142, 1.3064 and 1.2938
•Above: 1.3359, 1.3513 and 1.3667
•Current range: 1.3219 to 1.3359
GBP/USD ratio has shown slight gains in short positions. Long and short positions are close to an even split, indicative of a lack of trader bias as to what direction GBP/USD will take next.

XAU/USD ratio has shown slight gains in short positions

XAU/USD ratio has shown slight gains in short positions. Long positions command a strong majority (60%), indicative of trader bias towards XAU/USD continuing to move upwards. Gold prices continue to move higher this week as the disappointing US GDP report has weighed on market sentiment. Preliminary GDP for the second quarter disappointed, as the markets had expected a strong gain of 2.6%, while the economy responded with a much smaller gain of 1.2%. A September rate hike appears less likely, given recent economic data. On Sunday, FOMC William Dudley, a close ally of Janet Yellen, said that the Brexit fallout posed a risk to the US economy and urged the Fed to proceed with caution before raising interest rates. The US will release wage growth and nonfarm payrolls later in the week, and these key employment numbers will be carefully monitored by the Fed as it mulls over a possible rate hike. The markets have circled September and December as the most likely dates for a rate hike, but if the Fed isn’t satisfied with the economy’s performance, it could delay any moves until 2017

The USD/JPY ratio has little movement on Tuesday

The USD/JPY ratio has little movement on Tuesday. Currently, long positions have a majority (65%), indicative of trader bias towards USD/JPY reversing directions and moving to higher ground.
•USD/JPY was flat in the Asian session and has posted considerable losses in the European session
•101.20 is providing support
•There is resistance at 102.36
•Current range: 101.20 to 102.36
The Japanese yen has posted gains on Tuesday, following a lackluster start to the week. USD/JPY is currently trading at 101.80. On the release front, Japan announced the first step in its stimulus package, totaling JPY 13.4 billion. Japanese Consumer Confidence came in at 41.3, short of expectations. We’ll get a look at the BoJ minutes later today. In the US, today’s major event is Personal Spending, with the estimate standing at 0.3%. On Wednesday, the US releases two key events – ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI and ADP Nonfarm Employment Change.

Oil chart

Just as it looked as though we may see a correction in Brent crude as it ran into support around a key zone, it’s taken another dip lower breaking through the lower bound of the support zone and the 200-day simple moving average in the process.

 

EUR/USD breaking out and moving lower.

The euro is unchanged on Monday, following sharp gains in the Friday session. EUR/USD is currently trading at 1.1170. On the release front, manufacturing PMIs are in focus in both the Eurozone and the US. German Manufacturing PMI came in at 53.7, while Eurozone Manufacturing PMI showed a reading of 52.0. Both figures were very close to the estimates. Later in the day, the US will release ISM Manufacturing PMI. Little change is expected in the July reading, with an estimate of 53.1 points.
The euro gained closed to 100 points on Friday and closed the week at 1.1170, its highest level since the Brexit vote in late June. The euro took advantage of a surprisingly soft US GDP report. Preliminary GDP for the second quarter was projected at 2.6%, but posted a much smaller gain of 1.6%. The soft reading not only pushed the dollar lower, but has dampened enthusiasm regarding a rate hike by the Fed, which last week stayed on the sidelines yet again.EUR/USD ratio showed gains in long positions on Friday, consistent with strong gains by EUR/USD on Friday. Short positions have a strong majority (63%), indicative of trader bias towards EUR/USD breaking out and moving lower.

GBP/USD ratio is almost unchanged on Monday

GBP/USD ratio is almost unchanged on Monday, consistent with the lack of movement from GBP/USD. Long positions have a majority (55%), indicative of trader bias towards GBP/USD breaking out and moving higher.
•GBP/USD posted gains in the Asian session. The pair reversed directions in the European session and posted sharp losses. The pair is unchanged early in North American trade
•1.3142 is providing support
•1.3219 was tested in resistance earlier and is under pressure
The British pound has posted small losses at the start of the week. In Monday’s North American session, GBP/USD is trading at the 1.32 line. On the release front, British Manufacturing PMI dipped to 48.2 points, below the estimate of 49.1. Later in the day, the US will release ISM Manufacturing PMI, a key indicator. Little change is expected in the July reading, with an estimate of 53.1 points. On Tuesday, the UK will publish Construction PMI, with the markets bracing for a weak reading of 44.2 points.
British PMI reports are important gauges of economic activity, and the week kicked off on a sour note. Manufacturing PMI came in at 48.2 points in July, following the previous release which also indicated contraction in the manufacturing sector. There are growing worries that third quarter data such as PMI reports will point to a weakening British economy, due to the fallout from the Brexit vote. Construction and Services PMIs are also expected to contract, and this could weaken the pound. The markets will also be keeping a close eye on the BoE, which is widely expected to cut interest rates when it meets on Thursday. The BoE surprised the markets in July when it maintained rates at 0.50%, but faces losing credibility if it stays on the sidelines again. The bank hasn’t lowered rates since 2009, so such a dramatic move could push the pound to lower levels.

USD/JPY posted sharp losses in the Asian session

The USD/JPY ratio has shown slight movement towards long positions. Currently, long positions have a majority (62%), indicative of trader bias towards USD/JPY reversing directions and moving to higher ground.
•USD/JPY posted sharp losses in the Asian session. The pair has shown limited movement in the European session
•104.99 is a strong resistance line
•103.73 was tested earlier and is a weak support level. It could see further action in the Friday session
•Current range: 103.73 to 104.99
The Japanese yen has posted strong gains on Friday. In the North American session, USD/JPY is trading at 102.80. On the release front, Japanese consumer inflation and consumer spending indicators disappointed. Tokyo Core CPI posted a decline of 0.4%, while Retail Sales dropped 2.2%. The Bank of Japan surprised the markets as it did not lower interest rates at its policy meeting. The yen continues to improve following a soft GDP report in the US on Friday. Advanced GDP for the second quarter climbed 1.2%, much weaker than the forecast of 2.6%. Later in the day, we’ll get a look at a key consumer confidence indicator, with the release of UoM Consumer Sentiment. The markets are braced for the indicator to dip to 90.2 points

AUD/USD was flat in the Asian session.

•AUD/USD was flat in the Asian session. The pair has posted small gains in European trade
•0.7440 is providing strong support
•0.7560 is under pressure as resistance
•Current range: 0.7440 to 0.7560
Further levels in both directions:
•Below: 0.7440, 0.7339, 0.7251 and 0.7105
•Above: 0.7560, 0.7701 and 0.7835
AUD/USD ratio has shown movement towards short positions. Currently, long positions retain a majority (54%), indicative of trader bias towards AUD/USD continuing to gain ground.
The Australian dollar is subdued on Thursday, as AUD/USD is currently trading at 0.7530. On the release front, Australian Import Prices declined 1.0%, well off the estimate of a 1.6% gain. Later in the day, Australia releases PPI, an important inflation indicator. The markets are expecting a small gain of 0.2%. In the US, there are just two releases, highlighted by Unemployment Claims. The indicator is expected to rise to 261 thousand.
The markets were keeping a close eye on Australia’s CPI release on Wednesday. The index rebounded nicely in the second quarter, posting a gain of 0.4%, compared to a decline of 0.2% in the first quarter. It’s not clear how the RBA, which will set interest rates next week, plans to respond to the CPI release.

AUD/USD was choppy in the Asian session

0.7251 0.7339 0.7440 0.7560 0.7701 0.7835
•AUD/USD was choppy in the Asian session. The pair posted slight losses in European trade and is unchanged early in the North American session
•0.7440 is under strong pressure in support
•0.7560 is has strengthened in resistance following gains by AUD/USD on Wednesday
•Current range: 0.7440 to 0.7560
AUD/USD ratio has shown movement towards long positions. Currently, long positions retain a majority (58%), indicative of trader bias towards AUD/USD reversing directions and moving higher.
The Australian dollar has posted losses on Wednesday, erasing the gains from the Tuesday session. In the North American session, AUD/USD is trading slightly above the 0.7470. On the release front, Australian CPI posted a gain of 0.4%, matching the forecast. In the US, economic indicators were dismal. Core Durable Goods Orders and Durable Goods Orders both posted declines. As well, Pending Homes Sales posted a small gain of 0.2%, well below expectations. Later in the day, the Federal Reserve will conclude its meeting and issue a policy statement. On Thursday, the US will release Unemployment Claims.
Australia released a highly-anticipated CPI reading for the second quarter on Wednesday. The index rebounded nicely, posting a gain of 0.4%, compared to a decline of 0.2% in the first quarter. It’s not clear how the RBA, which will set interest rates next week, will respond to the CPI release. The markets have priced in a 50% chance that the bank will lower rates, and an unexpected CPI reading could have swayed the odds of a rate cut. However, the reading matched the forecast, so the question of whether the RBA will act remains up in the air. The annual inflation rate stands at just 1.0%, well below the RBA’s stated target of 2% to 3%. Will this be enough of a factor to prod the RBA into action? We’ll have to wait and see. Many economists see interest rates steadily declining, with Capital Economics chief analyst Paul Dales projecting that rates could drop as low as 1%.

The USD/JPY ratio has shown gains in long positions

•USD/JPY has posted gains in the Asian and European sessions
•104.99 has switched to support following gains by USD/JPY in the Wednesday session
•105.87 was tested earlier in resistance and remains a fluid line
•Current range: 104.99 to 105.87
The USD/JPY ratio has shown gains in long positions. Currently, long positions have a majority (63%), indicative of trader bias towards USD/JPY continuing to move towards higher ground.
The Japanese yen has reversed directions on Wednesday, posting considerable losses. USD/JPY is currently trading at 105.70. On the release front, there are no Japanese releases. In the US, the Federal Reserve will set the benchmark rate and issue a policy statement. As well, we’ll get a look at durable good orders and pending home sales.
There was positive news out of the US on Tuesday. CB Consumer Confidence dipped to 97.3 points in July, lower than the June reading of 98.0, but nonetheless another excellent release. New Home Sales followed suit, jumping to 592 thousand in June. This figure easily beat the forecast of 560 thousand. There was more good news from the manufacturing sector, as the Richmond Manufacturing Index surged, posting a reading of plus-10 points. This crushed the forecast of minus-4 points.
The Abe government is planning a significant fiscal spending package, but how big is big? On Wednesday, Abe announced a spending package of JPY 28 trillion, higher than the markets had expected. This report sent the yen lower. On Tuesday, a Nikkei report stated that the government would unveil a direct fiscal stimulus of about JPY 6 trillion yen over the next few years, pushing the Japanese currency higher. We can expect further volatility from USD/JPY as additional details about the fiscal package are released. The BoJ will issue a policy statement late Thursday, and it remains unclear if the bank will adopt further easing measures.

The dollar sunk Tuesday to its weakest level against the yen

The dollar sunk Tuesday to its weakest level against the yen in nearly two weeks amid reports that Japanese stimulus efforts might fall short of investors’ expectations.
The greenback  tumbled 1.3% to ¥104.37 in recent trade, its weakest level since July 14, compared with ¥105.81 late Monday in New York.
A Nikkei report published over the weekend said a fiscal stimulus package planned by the government would be much smaller than expected. Taro Aso, Japan’s finance minister, played down the report, saying the government had not yet decided on the size of the package.
Aso’s comments undermined expectations for a sizable expansion of the Bank of Japan’s easing efforts on Friday following the close of its two-day policy meeting, according to a team of currency strategists at Scotiabank. The BOJ might want to gauge the size of the government’s fiscal stimulus before deciding whether supplemental measures are needed, the team said.
The greenback plunged to its weakest level against the yen in more than two years late last month after the U.K. voted to leave the European Union, sending investors scrambling into safety plays like the yen and gold.
But it has risen off its lows against the yen this month after Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s ruling coalition won a decisive electoral victory, increasing the likelihood of more monetary and fiscal stimulus measures.
“I’d be surprised if they hesitate,” said Omer Esiner, chief market analyst at Commonwealth Foreign Exchange. “Because that would see the yen rocket higher and that’s something policy makers in Japan want to avoid at all costs.”
 

EUR/USD Chart

Summary :
Target Level : 1.106
Target Period : 3 days
Analysis :
Falling Wedge identified at 25-Jul-20:00 2016 GMT. This pattern is still in the process of forming. Possible bullish price movement towards the resistance 1.106 within the next 3 days.
Resistance Levels :
( B ) 1.106Last resistance turning point of Falling Wedge.
Support Levels
( A ) 1.0955Last support turning point of Falling Wedge.

Chart date range : 07-Jul-08:00 GMT-> 26-Jul-08:00 GMT Data interval : 4 hour RSI: 34 Candles MA: 34 Candles

US crude has dropped sharply on Monday

US crude has dropped sharply on Monday, continuing the downward trend seen late last week. In the North American session, WTI/USD futures are trading at $43.19. Brent crude is trading at $44.80, as the Brent premium stands at $1.59. It’s a quiet start to the trading week, with no US releases on the schedule. On Tuesday, there are two key releases, CB Consumer Confidence and New Home Sales.
Crude prices continue to slide. WTI/USD has plunged 4.9% since Wednesday, dropping close to the $43 level. US crude inventory reports continue to point to declines week after week, but crude prices haven’t rebounded, due to the oversupply of crude. Drilling activity in the US is on the upswing, as the number of US drilling rigs continues to increase. This is raising concerns that higher production levels in the US will exacerbate supply levels and push down crude prices even further. In late June, US crude broke above the $50 level, but has since dropped sharply, losing more than 12 percent in that time.

The British pound

The British pound is unchanged at the start of the new trading week. Early in the North American session, GBP/USD is trading slightly at the 1.31 line. On the release front, it’s a quiet start to the week, with just one event on the schedule. British CBI Industrial Order Expectations came in at -4 points, within expectations. There are no US releases on Monday. On Tuesday, the US releases CB Consumer Confidence and New Home Sales, both key indicators.•GBP/USD was flat in the Asian session and has posted sharp losses in the European session. The pair is showing limited movement early in the North American session
•1.3142 has switched to a resistance role following sharp losses by GBP/USD in the European session
•1.3064 is providing support. It is a weak line and could be tested in the North American session
GBP/USD ratio is showing gains in long positions on Friday, consistent with the sharp losses recorded by GBP/USD. Currently, long positions have a majority (54%), indicative of trader bias towards GBP/USD reversing directions and moving higher.

The Japanese yen is almost unchanged in the Monday

The Japanese yen is almost unchanged in the Monday session, as USD/JPY is trading slightly above the 106 level. On the release front, Japanese Trade Balance came in at JPY 33 trillion, easily beating expectations. Later in the day, Japan releases the Services Producer Price Index, which measures inflation in the corporate sector. The markets are expecting a weak gain of 0.1%. In the US, there are no events on the schedule. On Tuesday, the US releases CB Consumer Confidence and New Home Sales, both key indicators.
Although there were no major releases out of Japan last week, the yen showed a fair bit of volatility. Much of the movement can be attributed to market speculation as to what measures the Abe government and Bank of Japan will take in the next few weeks. The yen slipped on Wednesday on speculation that the government was planning a large fiscal spending package. However, the currency reversed directions and climbed on Thursday after BoJ Governor Haruhiko Kuroda flatly rejected the use of “helicopter money” – or increasing the budget deficit by a permanent increase in monetary base – in order to combat deflation. This tool is seen as an alternative to quantitative easing and some economists have suggested it could be used in Japan, with interest rates in negative territory and the economy in danger of recession. Kuroda added that the bank has not changed its stance of adopting further easing by way of quantitative easing, qualitative easing or lowering interest rates. The Bank of Japan meets for a policy meeting on Thursday and the markets will be looking for hints as to what, if any, monetary steps the bank will choose to implement.
The USD/JPY ratio is currently showing long positions with a majority (55%), indicative of trader bias towards USD/JPY breaking out and moving towards higher ground.

GBP/USD Chart

Summary :
Target Level : 1.3065
Target Period : 3 days
Analysis :
Head and Shoulders identified at 22-Jul-16:00 2016 GMT. This pattern is still in the process of forming. Possible bearish price movement towards the support 1.306 within the next 3 days.
Supporting Indicators :
Downward sloping Moving Average
Resistance Levels :
( B ) 1.3292Last resistance turning point of Head and Shoulders.
Support Levels
( A ) 1.3065Last support turning point of Head and Shoulders.

Chart date range : 05-Jul-00:00 GMT-> 25-Jul-08:00 GMT Data interval : 4 hour RSI: 34 Candles MA: 34 Candles

GBP/USD ratio is showing slight movement

GBP/USD ratio is showing slight movement in short positions. Long and short positions are close to an even split, indicative of a lack of trader bias as to what direction GBP/USD will take.•GBP/USD was flat in the Asian session and has posted considerable losses in the European session
•1.3142 is providing support
•1.3219 was tested earlier in resistance and remains a weak line
Further levels in both directions:
•Below: 1.3142, 1.3064 and 1.2938
•Above: 1.3219, 1.3349, 1.3513 and 1.3675
•Current range: 1.3142 to 1.3219
The British pound has reversed directions on Thursday, posting slight losses. Early in the North American session, GBP/USD is trading at the 1.32 line. In economic news, British Retail Sales declined by 0.9%, missing expectations. Public Sector Net Borrowing improved to GBP 7.3 billion, beating the estimate. Over in the US, it’s a busy day. Unemployment Claims remained steady at 253 thousand, well below the forecast. The Philly Fed Manufacturing Index disappointed with a decline of 2.9 points. Later in the day, we’ll get a look at Existing Home Sales, with the indicator expected to soften to 5.48 million.

EUR/USD

Summary :
Target Level : 1.107
Target Period : 2 days
Analysis :
Falling Wedge has broken through the resistance line at 21-Jul-04:00 2016 GMT. Possible bullish price movement forecast for the next 2 days towards 1.107.
Resistance Levels :
( B ) 1.1077Last resistance turning point of Falling Wedge.
Support Levels
( A ) 1.0981Last support turning point of Falling Wedge.

Chart date range : 05-Jul-16:00 GMT-> 21-Jul-04:00 GMT Data interval : 4 hour RSI: 34 Candles MA: 34 Candles

The pound climbed from a one-week low as a report showed

The pound climbed from a one-week low as a report showed the U.K. unemployment rate fell below 5 percent for the first time since 2005.
Sterling was further boosted by a Bank of England survey which showed that despite an increase in business uncertainty after the June 23 referendum where the U.K. voted to leave the European Union, firms sought to maintain “business as usual.”
The British currency gained versus all of its 16 major peers as data showed the U.K. jobless rate, as measured by International Labour Organisation standards, dropped to 4.9 percent in the three months through May. The median forecast in a Bloomberg survey of economists was for an unchanged reading of 5 percent. Separate wage data showed average weekly earnings unexpectedly fell.
“It’s a double push really for the pound,” said Neil Jones, London-based head of hedge-fund sales at Mizuho Bank Ltd. “We have got insight into the thinking of businesses and it looks like the hiring plans” are not expected to change “for the moment, so we can probably maintain some healthy levels of employment.”
The pound rose 0.3 percent to $1.3154 as of 2:26 p.m. London time, after falling earlier to $1.3065, the lowest since July 12. Sterling strengthened 0.5 percent to 83.61 pence per euro.