AUD/USD Daily Chart 12/8

Data released at the weekend showed China’s exports fell 1.1% y/y in November, the fourth consecutive month of negative growth. It is evident that the 18-month tariff was with the US is taking its toll on China’s export sector and could imply that they may be more ready to get a Phase 1 deal signed off as soon as possible. That might be construed as positive for risk, but the headline data is dominating sentiment for the time being.

Imports came in better than expected, rising 0.3% y/y versus the -1.8% expected and as a result the trade surplus narrowed to $38.7 billion. The Australian dollar was buoyed by the US payrolls data but has started the week in the red after the poor China trade data. The weak imports growth being one of the driving forces. The 55-day moving average looks poised to rise above the 100-day moving average at 0.6810 for the first time since February 8.

AUD/USD Daily Chart

Source: OANDA fxTrade

Oil and Gold 12/8

Oil The Saudis won the week. Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman made quite a debut representing Saudi Arabia at the OPEC+ meeting in Vienna. The Saudi oil minister stunned markets by announcing an additional cut at the final press conference. The Saudis had a couple goals this week, to secure firmer oil prices and for the Aramco IPO to have positive news before its starts trading next week. The deeper production cuts by OPEC + was being faded by traders but the surprise announcement that the Saudis would bring their production to 9.7 million bpd stunned markets. Energy traders were expecting OPEC + to simply confirm a supply cut that the market was used to by overcompliance. The Saudi surprise cut exceeded everyone’s expectations. The other key part of the meeting saw the compliance cheaters come clean and signal they will comply going forward. The big three cheaters are the Russians, Nigerians and Iranians. The Russian got a rule changed that will now not see condensate count on their quota, while the Iranians and Nigerians both admitted guilt to their non-compliance and promised to behave. Gold Gold lost some off its luster after a barrage of US economic data showed the world’s largest economy has not lost its mojo. The killer jobs number was the exclamation point for the Fed’s call to keep rates on hold. With a strong US consumer still in place despite the ongoing trade war, US stocks, Treasury yields and the dollar have all turned very bullish again. Gold’s bullish outlook has been derailed on trade optimism and now it seems an unbreakable US economy. Its not just about jobs, wages were strong today and sentiment improved. Scalping Strategy Course (DVD + Online)

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U.S. dollar 12/6

Selling pressure on the U.S. dollar should be limited if Friday's U.S. non-farm payroll report, due at 1330 GMT, is in line with expectations, says MUFG. The jobs data are expected to show the U.S. added 187,000 jobs in November, up from 128,000 jobs added the previous month, according to a WSJ poll of economists. Meeting market expectations would likely to prompt a degree of relief, especially after mixed U.S. economic data this week, including private jobs data, dragged the U.S. dollar lower. The DXY Dollar index is last flat at 97.41, while EUR/USD is steady at 1.1102.