Progenics Pharmaceuticals Inc. (PGNX)

Progenics Pharmaceuticals Inc. (PGNX) shares fell in the extended session Wednesday after the cancer drug company said one of its imaging agents was not sensitive enough to detect prostate cancer in a clinical study. Progenics shares fell 19% after hours, following a 1.6% decline to close the regular session at $7.30. The company said a late-stage clinical trial found its so-called "1404" imaging agent needed to positively detect prostate cancer with a 60% or more sensitivity but did so with a 47% to 51% range. The imaging agent, however, was able to detect the absence of prostate cancer correctly with a specificity of 71% to 75% compared with the study target of 60% or more.

Intel Corp (INTC)

Intel Corp (INTC) –Death Cross? – The chip maker just captured its 6^th consecutive losing session yesterday to slip into bearish territory for the 1^st time in 2 years. An 18 year high of $57.08 was tapped on June 1^st before plummeting over 20% since.  INTC became the Dow’s worst performer on Tuesday with a 3% setback.  Others in the space are experiencing similar weakness as of late despite robust economic growth being touted overall.

Five Below (FIVE)

Five Below (FIVE) – High Five!  – The discount retailer is trading significantly higher at record highs pre-market after soundly beating quarterly estimates by $0.04 a share.  Same Store Sales increased by 2.7% to see a 23% jump in revenue overall with a rosy outlook also conveyed. The positive move was somewhat surprising considering a rapid decline from competitors in the space like Dollar Tree (DLTR) in recent days. 

Coke (KO)

Coke (KO) – Coffee Break! – The legendary beverage maker has agreed in earnest to purchase British coffee maker, Costa for a $5.1 Billion price tag. The chain has over 4K outlets as Coke looks to further diversify as trends continue to diminish over their core product line. Costa’s popular Georgia brand is also distributed widely throughout Asia as the battle of the brew continues. Shares of KO are trading modestly higher pre-market with new rival Starbucks (SBUX) down nearly 2% off the initial reaction. 

Domestic energy companies

Domestic energy companies collectively saw 9 rigs taken off line last week which was the largest weekly reduction in over two years as concerns around over-supply begin to set in despite a larger than expected draw last Wednesday. Crude Futures (/CL) are essentially flat just below the $69 a barrel mark with the heaviest driving season quickly coming to an end. The 10 year Treasury has dropped near the 2.815% mark this morning with general applauds surrounding FOMC Powell’s comments out of Jackson Hole last week in a call to gradually reduce rates. There have now been seven rate hikes completed since the financial crisis with two of those occurring just this year. Analysts believe we will see the same number by year’s end should the market continue at the current pace. 

S&P 500 (SPX) 8/24

The S&P 500 (SPX) moved lower as the U.S. and China engaged in a second day of trade talks.  $16 billion of tariffs were put in place early yesterday on a wide ranging list of items, spanning Chinese machinery and chemicals to U.S. engines and fish meal.   Robust corporate earnings and strong economic numbers have helped the S&P 500 rise more than 5% since the end of June, putting it on pace for its best three month stretch of the year.   According to analysts, tariffs have not had a severe negative effect on corporate profits, so far.  Minutes from the latest Fed meeting show that trade tensions have risen to the top of the central bank’s list of concerns.  

U.S. crude oil futures 8/22

U.S. crude oil futures (/CL) are up nearly 1.8%, and are on track to make their fifth consecutive gain as a drop in U.S. oil inventories and a sliding dollar have helped propel oil to trade near $67 a barrel.    Gold (/GC) has also benefited from the weakening dollar and increasing political uncertainty.  Gold futures are up 0.4% this morning, and are trading near $1205 per troy ounce.    Existing Home Sales and the FOMC minutes will be the highlight of today’s economic reports.  Investors will be looking for clues in the minutes for direction on interest rate policy going forward.  As of this writing,  S&P 500 futures (/ES) are 0.2% lower near 2857 and 30yr. Treasury bonds (/ZB) are 0.3% higher near  145’19.

Canadian dollar 8/21

The Canadian dollar has posted small gains in the Tuesday session, continuing the trend seen on Monday. Currently, USD/CAD is trading at 1.3023, down 0.16% on the day. In economic news, Canada releases Wholesale Sales. There are no U.S events on the schedule. On Wednesday, Canada releases retail sales reports, while the U.S will publish Existing Home Sales. As well, the U.S releases Existing Homes and the Federal Reserve will publish the minutes of the July policy meeting.
Will USD/CAD drop below the symbolic 1.30 level? The Canadian dollar has been moving higher since Friday and could drop below 1.30 this week, for the first time since August 7. It’s been a rough August for the Canadian dollar, as the escalating trade war has dampened risk appetite and hurt the Canadian dollar, which is a minor currency. However, the announcement that the U.S and China will hold trade talks in Washington later this week have raised investor confidence and boosted the Canadian currency. If the talks show signs of progress, such as the suspension of a $16 billion tariff scheduled to take effect on August 23, then the Canadian dollar rally could continue.

U.S. crude oil prices

U.S. crude oil prices rose on Friday on the prospect of better relations between the U.S. and China.  September futures (/CL) rose 0.7% to $65.91.  Light sweet crude has been weighed down by signs of weaker demand, the Turkish currency crisis, and a stronger dollar, which helped oil futures drop 2.5% on the week.  After setting a new 52 week low on Thursday, Gold (/GC) has found some footing over the past two days and is currently trading near $1194 per troy ounce.

Starbucks (SBUX)–

Creamed!– The popular coffee retailer announced its longer-term strategy yesterday which includes the closing of 150 company-operated stores. The alarming trend hints that growth may be topping despite trying to enter new markets like China. Same store sales are expected to dip by 1% in the current quarter as the recent negative publicity may be taking its toll. On a bright note, the company will hike its dividend by 20% to $0.36 a share. SBUX shares took a 3% hit after-hours to slip into the red for 2018. 

Changing your trading style

In fast moving markets this will happen especially if news has broke that influenced the direction of the market.  Stock and forex trading is risky so the losses you take should be small if you stick with a solid trading plan and know where to set stop losses. Changing your trading style from hitting the buy button and sell button and moving in and out of positions will lose you money in the long run. You need to look at your position and adjust your buy and exit strategies accordingly. As a trader, you are not guessing on where the trade might be going whether it is a long or short trade, so you are not taking a risk it is not gambling it is a well thought out trade.

 A profitable forex or stock trader mental attitude is most important. They have to have a positive outlook on all their trades. This will make you a successful and profitable trader. One of the important parts of not having to many losing trade is the technical analysis and reading your charts correctly. Experienced traders and investors in the markets must use technical analysis as part of their trading program.

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USD/CAD

USD/CAD showed little movement in the Asian session. The pair recorded slight gains but then retracted in European trade

• 1.2757 is providing support
• 1.2850 was tested earlier in resistance. It is a weak line
• Current range: 1.2757 to 1.2850

Further levels in both directions:

• Below: 1.2757, 1.2687 and 1.2590
• Above: 1.2850, 1.2943, 1.3015 and 1.3125
• 
  USD/CAD ratio is showing little movement in the Thursday session. Currently, short positions have a majority (53%), indicative of slight trader bias towards USD/CAD takes next.

Canadian dollar has recorded slight losses

Canadian dollar has recorded slight losses in the Tuesday session. Currently, USD/CAD is trading at 1.2606, up 0.37% on the day. On the release front, it’s a very light day. There are no US releases on the schedule. The sole Canadian indicator, Wholesale Sales, is expected to slow to 0.4%. On Wednesday, the Federal Reserve will release the minutes of its January meeting. As well, the US will release Existing Home Sales.
It’s been an eventful few weeks for Jerome Powell, who has just commenced his stint as chair of the Federal Reserve. Strong US data in recent weeks has raised speculation that the Fed may need to accelerate the pace of interest rate hikes in 2018. The Fed is currently projecting three rate hikes this year, but if inflation continues to move upwards, many analysts are expecting that the Fed could press the rate trigger four, or even five times in 2018. Meanwhile, concern over higher inflation and more rate hikes sent the stock markets into a frenzy earlier in February. Powell sought to reassure the markets that the Fed was monitoring the situation, but it’s doubtful that the Fed can do much to prevent volatility in the markets.
USD/CAD has posted small gains in the Asian and European sessions
•1.2494 is providing support
•1.2630 is a weak resistance line
•Current range: 1.2494 to 1.2630
Further levels in both directions:
•Below: 1.2494, 1.2351, 1.2190 and 1.2060
•Above: 1.2630, 1.2757 and 1.2855
USD/CAD ratio is showing little movement in the Tuesday session. Currently, short and long positions are evenly split, indicative of a lack of trader bias as to which direction USD/CAD will take next.

Prices for foreign-made goods

Prices for foreign-made goods imported to the U.S. rose in January, driven by a broad range of product price increases and capping a week of solid inflation readings.
Import prices increased 1% in January from a month earlier, the Labor Department said Friday. Economists surveyed by The Wall Street Journal expected a 0.7% increase in import prices. The January rise matched November's increase and hasn't been exceeded since May 2016, when the index grew 1.2%.
Unlike most measures of inflation, import prices are not adjusted for seasonality.
Petroleum-import prices rose 4.3% from December. Prices for imports excluding petroleum increased 0.5% last month, an increase last exceeded in April 2011.
Over the past year, overall import prices have grown 3.6%.

USD/CAD ticked lower

USD/CAD ticked lower in the Asian session. In European trade, the pair dropped slightly but has recovered
•1.2351 is providing support
•1.2494 was tested earlier in resistance and remains fluid
•Current range: 1.2351 to 1.2494
Further levels in both directions:
•Below: 1.2351, 1.2190 and 1.2060
•Above: 1.2494, 1.2630, 1.2757 and 1.2855

USD/CAD ratio is showing slight movement towards long positions. Currently, long positions have a majority (53%), indicative of trader bias towards USD/CAD breaking out and moving lower.The Canadian dollar has paused on Thursday, after posting strong gains a day earlier. Currently, USD/CAD is trading at 1.2491, down 0.01% on the day. On the release front, Canada releases ADP Non-farm Employment Change. In the US, there are a host of indicators, highlighted by PPI and Core PPI reports for January. Both indicators are expected to record gains after declining in the December readings. The US will also release key manufacturing reports and unemployment claims. On Friday, the US releases key housing and consumer confidence numbers. Canada will publish Manufacturing Sales.
It’s been a rough February for the Canadian dollar, but the currency jumped on the bandwagon on Wednesday, as the US dollar posted broad losses. The Canadian currency posted its best one-day performance in 2018, gaining 0.09% against the greenback. The US dollar sagged as investors focused on poor retail sales reports in January. Retail Sales was flat at 0.0%, short of the estimate of 0.5%. Core Retail Sales declined 0.3%, well off the forecast of +0.2%. On the inflation front, CPI jumped 0.5%, above the estimate of 0.3%. Last week’s market sell-off, which sent the US dollar higher against other currencies, was triggered by fears of higher inflation. This strong CPI reading has raised concerns that investors could again lose their risk appetite and send the Canadian dollar lower.
 

USD/CAD ratio

The Canadian dollar continues to have an uneventful week. In the Tuesday’s session, the pair is trading at 1.2587, up 0.07% on the day. On the release front, there are no Canadian indicators on the schedule. In the US, the sole indicator is the NFIB Small Business Index, which improved to 106.9, above the estimate of 106.2 points. On Wednesday the US releases CPI and retail sales indicators. Traders should be prepared for movement from USD/CAD during the North American session.
Last week’s market selloff boosted the US dollar, at the expense of the Canadian dollar and most other major currencies. The Canadian dollar dropped 1.2% last week, and is down 2.2% in February, erasing the gains we saw in January. Interestingly, the catalyst for the current turbulence has been solid economic data in the US, namely, improved payrolls and wage growth reports. Is the correction over? It’s too early too tell, since much of the sell-off is related to investor concerns over possible interest rate hikes by major central banks. The Bank of England has said it could accelerate its pace of hikes, and the Federal Reserve could follow suit if inflation moves higher.
USD/CAD ratio is almost unchanged in the Tuesday session. Currently, long and short positions are evenly split, indicative of a lack of trader bias towards as to what direction USD/CAD takes next.USD/CAD was flat in the Asian session and has posted limited movement in the European session
•1.2494 is providing support
•1.2630 is providing resistance
•Current range: 1.2494 to 1.2630
Further levels in both directions:
•Below: 1.2494, 1.2351, 1.2190 and 1.2060
•Above: 1.2630, 1.2757 and 1.2855

EUR/USD

EUR/USD edged higher in the Asian session. The pair has reversed directions in European trade and is moving downards
•1.2200 has switched to a support role after losses by EUR/USD on Tuesday
•1.2286 is the next resistance line
Further levels in both directions:
•Below: 1.2200, 1.2092 and 1.1961
•Above: 1.2286, 1.2357, 1.2481 and 1.2569
•Current range: 1.2200 to 1.2286
•
EUR/USD ratio has shown strong movement towards long positions. Currently, short positions have a majority (57%), indicative of EUR/USD reversing directions and moving higher.

USD/CAD

After some spectacular readings, Canada’s economy is expected to show more modest job creation in January, with an estimate of 10.3 thousand. The unemployment rate is forecast to edge up from 5.7% to 5.8%. If these predictions are within expectations, the Canadian dollar could gain some ground on Friday, and end a tough week on a positive note.USD/CAD ratio is unchanged in the Monday session. Currently, long positions have a majority (51%), indicative of a lack of trader bias towards as to what direction USD/CAD takes next.
USD/CAD has showed little movement in the Asian and European sessions
•1.2494 is providing support
•1.2630 is a weak resistance line
•Current range: 1.2494 to 1.2630
Further levels in both directions:
•Below: 1.2494, 1.2351, 1.2190 and 1.2060
•Above: 1.2630, 1.2757 and 1.2855

S&P futures vs fair value: +13.50,,2/9

S&P futures vs fair value: +13.50. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +33.30.
The S&P 500 futures trade 14 points, or 0.5%, above fair value.
It's been a pretty terrible week for the U.S. equity market, with the S&P 500, the Dow Jones Industrial Average, and the Nasdaq Composite losing around 6.5% apiece. The losses leave the major averages between 9.7% and 10.4% below the record highs they hit on January 26.
All 11 sectors have moved lower this week, with losses ranging between 4.9% (utilities) and 8.1% (energy).

The CAD

Canada’s unemployment rate ticked up last month after hitting a 10-year low in December, as both the public and private sectors shed workers.
The Canadian economy lost a net -88k jobs in January on a seasonally adjusted basis. The market expectations were for an increase in employment of +10k.
Canada’s unemployment rate ticked a tad higher to +5.9% in January, up from a revised reading of +5.8% in December.
The loonie took it on the chin immediately, moving from C$1.2601 to an intraday dollar high of C$1.2694. The CAD has since pared all of those losses and then some, trading atop of C$1.2600.
The CAD bears will have been disappointed with the initial price action as there were looking for better USD levels to sell their longs. A plethora of dollar sell orders had been scattered atop of the psychological C$1.2700 handle.The USD/CAD is trading lower on the day at C$1.2585.

Canadian dollar

Canadian dollar is steady in the Tuesday session, after considerable losses in the past two sessions. Currently, the pair is trading at 1.2556, up 0.16% on the day. On the release front, there are two key Canadian events. Canada’s trade deficit is expected to narrow to C$2.3 billion, and Ivey PMI is forecast to improve to 60.7 points. In the US, the key event of the day is JOLTS Job Openings, which is expected to climb to 5.95 million. On Wednesday, Canada releases Building Permits.
The US dollar continues to post broad gains this week, and the Canadian dollar has declined 1.0% and is at its lowest level since mid-January. The greenback has pushed higher as global stock markets are in red territory. US stock markets started the week with strong losses, and the Dow Jones posted its biggest loss in one day on Monday, losing 1,500 points at one stage. The index ended the day down 4.6%, and the downward trend has continued in the Asian and European markets on Tuesday. As investors head for the hills, analysts are scrambling to find the reasons behind the massive sell-off in the stock markets. Some experts are pointing to the changing of the guard at the Federal Reserve, with Jerome Powell replacing outgoing chair Janet Yellen on Saturday. However, Powell is not expected to change current monetary policy, so it’s unclear how Powell would have rubbed the markets the wrong way after just one day at his new job.

EUR/USD

There were no dramatic announcements from the Federal Reserve on Wednesday, and EUR/USD showed little movement in the Wednesday session. The Fed held the course on monetary policy, with the benchmark rate remaining between 1.25%-1.50%. In the rate statement, policymakers said that they expected the economy to continue to expand at a moderate pace and that the labor market would remain strong in 2018. What was more noteworthy was that the Fed predicted that inflation would rise to the Fed’s 2 percent target this year. This marks an upgrade in the inflation forecast, as the December statement said that inflation was expected to “remain somewhat below 2 percent.” Higher inflation is likely to open the door to tighter monetary policy, and the Fed appears on track for three, or even four rate hikes in 2018, assuming that the US economy remains strong.

dollar fall against the Japanese yen

The dollar fall against the Japanese yen "has established a near-term bottom at the 108.50 level," according to BK Asset Management. USD/JPY is last up 0.1% at 109.30. With U.S. non-farm payrolls expected to come in higher on Friday--up by 177,000, compared with a 148,000 increase in December, according to a WSJ poll--and with "the Fed appearing resolute to normalize monetary policy in earnest, the decline in the dollar may be coming to an end for the near term," says BK. Still, against the euro and sterling, the dollar continues to lose ground, with EUR/USD up 0.3% at 1.2452 and GBP/USD rising 0.2% to 1.4222.

Canadian dollar

There is still room to grow for the Canadian dollar, says Audrey Childe-Freeman, chief strategist at FX Knowledge. "Once the NAFTA [negotiations] element is removed, it should catch up with the interest rates market," she says, which are pricing in three rate increases by the Bank of Canada this year. CAD has held its ground during the recent sixth phase of NAFTA talks. "I was holding on to the trade [during the talks] and it has paid off," says Ms. Childe-Freeman. CAD rises versus USD, with USD/CAD down by 0.5% at 1.2270 after Canadian November GDP showed a rise of 0.4% month-on-month on Wednesday.

RBC Capital Markets

Potentially higher euro rates volatility from "extremely low" levels at present and higher yields prompts RBC Capital Markets to recommend so-called payer swaptions: options to enter a swap and pay the fixed leg while receiving floating rates. Option premiums are cheap when volatility is low, as the underlying asset is less likely to move to in-the-money territory. And higher rates are beneficial for those paying fixed rate to receive floating

pushes EUR/USD

A mix of upward revision of eurozone PMIs and higher than-expected U.S. jobless claims on Thursday pushes EUR/USD up 0.6% to 1.2087, just a shade below the September high of 1.2093, which would mark its highest in around three years, according to Factset. Eurozone December final composite PMIs were revised slightly upwards from the flash estimate to 58.1. And U.S. jobless claims rose by 250,000 during the last week of December, above forecasts in a WSJ poll for a 240,000 increase. Private sector jobs rose by more than expected, however, according to the ADP report.

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