USD/CAD gained 0.541

The USD/CAD gained 0.541 percent in the last 24 hours. The pair is trading at 1.3110. The loonie has not recovered from the impact of the massive U.S. jobs report on Friday. The U.S. non farm payrolls (NFP) report added 287,000 in June with a 4.9 percent unemployment rate. The Canadian Labour Force survey also released last Friday shows a drop in unemployment to 6.8 percent even as the economy lost 700 jobs this month. The lower unemployment rate is explained by a drop in the participation rate to a 16 year low of 65.5 percent. The divergent path of employment in both sides of the border plus the softness of energy prices will keep the CAD under pressure.
The big market event for the loonie will come on Wednesday, July 13 at 10:00 am EDT when the Bank of Canada (BoC) releases its rate statement. No changes are expected for the Canadian benchmark interest rate, but the tone of the quarterly monetary policy report and later in the press conference with Governor Stephen Poloz will the main focus. The market is expecting a more dovish tone from the BoC which could be preparing investors for an eventual rate cut in the fall if there are not obvious positive impact from the fiscal stimulus package announced in March from the government.

GBP/USD Chart

Summary :
Target Level : 1.302
Target Period : 2 days
Analysis :
Triangle identified at 11-Jul-04:00 2016 GMT. This pattern is still in the process of forming. Possible bullish price movement towards the resistance 1.302 within the next 2 days.
Supporting Indicators :
Upward sloping Moving Average
Resistance Levels :
( B ) 1.302Last resistance turning point of Triangle.
Support Levels
( A ) 1.2928Last support turning point of Triangle.

 

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EURUSD dropping back to 1.10

While we saw a spike in the dollar following the data, with EURUSD dropping back to 1.10 immediately after the release, and a corresponding sell-off in Gold, this data is unlikely to change the near-term outlook for Fed interest rates. While I wouldn’t write off a hike at the end of the year, assuming the jobs data between now and then is very good and wage growth shows signs of improvement, the risks posed by Brexit in the near-term are likely to deter the Fed from tightening and unnecessarily causing further problems for both the economy and financial markets.
Update – Since the release, both the dollar and Gold have rebounded and now trade close to pre-release levels. Possibly a sign that expectations are relatively unchanged after the June jobs numbers.

rebound in GBP/USD

 Securities advises using the latest rebound in GBP/USD from this week's 31-year low just below $1.28 to initiate or add to short positions. GBP/USD trades at $1.2946. As the implications of the U.K. vote to leave the EU "sink in," TD sees "protracted downside risks for sterling". GBP/USD is expected to drop to $1.20 by the end of the year. However, TD notes: "The risks to our forecast are currently skewed to a further--and faster--decline." The pound faces "substantial downside pressure" as global investros allocate capital away from the U.K., it says, adding the U.K.'s large current account deficit is likely to come to the fore.

The Japanese yen

The Japanese yen is showing little movement on Thursday, as USD/JPY is trading slightly above the 101 line. In the US, employment data will be in focus, with the publication of ADP Nonfarm Employment Change and Unemployment Claims. In Japan, today’s highlight is Current Account. On Friday, we’ll get a look at the all-important Nonfarm Employment Change, with the markets expecting a strong turnaround after the May shocker of just 38 thousand. The estimate stands at 174 thousand.
The Japanese yen has taken full advantage of the Brexit referendum, which saw Britain vote to exit the European Union. The yen has posted strong gains of 3.5 percent since Brexit, as jittery investors have dumped risk assets in favor of the safe-haven Japanese currency. Brexit aftershocks are far from over, as underscored by the woeful British pound, which is struggling at 30-year lows. With risk sentiment decidedly negative, the yen could break below the symbolic 100 level, which last occurred just after the Brexit vote in late June. Although the Bank of Japan has been reluctant to adopt further easing measures, it may have to act in order to curb a streaking yen which is hurting the export sector. Japanese officials have repeatedly warned against what they have termed “currency manipulations” and have threatened to intervene if the yen continues to move higher.