Securities advises using the latest rebound in GBP/USD from this week's 31-year low just below $1.28 to initiate or add to short positions. GBP/USD trades at $1.2946. As the implications of the U.K. vote to leave the EU "sink in," TD sees "protracted downside risks for sterling". GBP/USD is expected to drop to $1.20 by the end of the year. However, TD notes: "The risks to our forecast are currently skewed to a further--and faster--decline." The pound faces "substantial downside pressure" as global investros allocate capital away from the U.K., it says, adding the U.K.'s large current account deficit is likely to come to the fore.
Forex and stock traders are looking for the consistently wrong investor, trader and take the opposite position. This will obviously lead to winning trades for them. All traders have read trading books that point out that increasing volume is good for the continuation of the trend. Many new stock traders will try and fight the trend.
Thursday, July 7, 2016
The Japanese yen
The Japanese yen is showing little movement on Thursday, as USD/JPY is trading slightly above the 101 line. In the US, employment data will be in focus, with the publication of ADP Nonfarm Employment Change and Unemployment Claims. In Japan, today’s highlight is Current Account. On Friday, we’ll get a look at the all-important Nonfarm Employment Change, with the markets expecting a strong turnaround after the May shocker of just 38 thousand. The estimate stands at 174 thousand.
The Japanese yen has taken full advantage of the Brexit referendum, which saw Britain vote to exit the European Union. The yen has posted strong gains of 3.5 percent since Brexit, as jittery investors have dumped risk assets in favor of the safe-haven Japanese currency. Brexit aftershocks are far from over, as underscored by the woeful British pound, which is struggling at 30-year lows. With risk sentiment decidedly negative, the yen could break below the symbolic 100 level, which last occurred just after the Brexit vote in late June. Although the Bank of Japan has been reluctant to adopt further easing measures, it may have to act in order to curb a streaking yen which is hurting the export sector. Japanese officials have repeatedly warned against what they have termed “currency manipulations” and have threatened to intervene if the yen continues to move higher.
The Japanese yen has taken full advantage of the Brexit referendum, which saw Britain vote to exit the European Union. The yen has posted strong gains of 3.5 percent since Brexit, as jittery investors have dumped risk assets in favor of the safe-haven Japanese currency. Brexit aftershocks are far from over, as underscored by the woeful British pound, which is struggling at 30-year lows. With risk sentiment decidedly negative, the yen could break below the symbolic 100 level, which last occurred just after the Brexit vote in late June. Although the Bank of Japan has been reluctant to adopt further easing measures, it may have to act in order to curb a streaking yen which is hurting the export sector. Japanese officials have repeatedly warned against what they have termed “currency manipulations” and have threatened to intervene if the yen continues to move higher.
AUD /USD
Summary :
Target Level : 0.7545
Target Period : 3 days
Analysis :
Triangle identified at 06-Jul-12:00 2016 GMT. This pattern is still in the process of forming. Possible bullish price movement towards the resistance 0.754 within the next 3 days.
Supporting Indicators :
Upward sloping Moving Average
Resistance Levels :
( B ) 0.7545Last resistance turning point of Triangle.
Support Levels
( A ) 0.7408Last support turning point of Triangle.
Target Level : 0.7545
Target Period : 3 days
Analysis :
Triangle identified at 06-Jul-12:00 2016 GMT. This pattern is still in the process of forming. Possible bullish price movement towards the resistance 0.754 within the next 3 days.
Supporting Indicators :
Upward sloping Moving Average
Resistance Levels :
( B ) 0.7545Last resistance turning point of Triangle.
Support Levels
( A ) 0.7408Last support turning point of Triangle.
Wednesday, July 6, 2016
technical outlook for the EUR/USD
The euro is nearly unchanged Thursday, bobbing around the 20-day moving average line at 1.1093 -- a long-term chart barrier that could skew the technical outlook for the EUR/USD. The U.S. dollar is trading in mixed fashion ahead of the U.S. non-farm payrolls report due Friday. Against major currencies, the greenback is up slightly, denoting mild risk aversion, but the dollar is weaker against some Asian currencies. The potential for a disappointment in the U.S. jobs report, on the heels of last month's dismal headline number of 38,000, may be pressuring the dollar. It would affirm the belief that the Federal Reserve has little reason to raise interest rates again this year. The EUR/USD is now at 1.1084 from its Wednesday closing of 1.1099, and will display a bearish technical bias if it ends the day below 1.1090, inside the Bollinger downtrend channel and under the 200-day line
The dollar edged up Wednesday
The dollar edged up Wednesday after the release of strong U.S. business data and ahead of the release of minutes from the Federal Reserve's June meeting.
The WSJ Dollar Index, which measures the dollar against 16 other currencies, rose 0.2% to 87.23.
The dollar has benefited from demand for assets seen as safe in the wake of the June 23 U.K. vote to leave the European Union. But analysts say the greenback's rise will be put to the test this week by new economic data and reports.
A stronger-than-expected reading of the The Institute for Supply Management's June nonmanufacturing index Wednesday helped ease concerns about a slowdown in the sector.
Investors are also looking to the release of minutes from the Fed's June 14-15 policy meeting at 2 p.m. EDT for more insight into officials' concerns about a slowdown in the broader economy and about the impacts of the Brexit vote. The Fed kept rates unchanged at the June meeting, and markets are now pricing in little chances of an interest-rate increase this year.
Friday's June U.S. jobs report will also offer a snapshot on the health of the labor market after a disappointing May reading.
The WSJ Dollar Index, which measures the dollar against 16 other currencies, rose 0.2% to 87.23.
The dollar has benefited from demand for assets seen as safe in the wake of the June 23 U.K. vote to leave the European Union. But analysts say the greenback's rise will be put to the test this week by new economic data and reports.
A stronger-than-expected reading of the The Institute for Supply Management's June nonmanufacturing index Wednesday helped ease concerns about a slowdown in the sector.
Investors are also looking to the release of minutes from the Fed's June 14-15 policy meeting at 2 p.m. EDT for more insight into officials' concerns about a slowdown in the broader economy and about the impacts of the Brexit vote. The Fed kept rates unchanged at the June meeting, and markets are now pricing in little chances of an interest-rate increase this year.
Friday's June U.S. jobs report will also offer a snapshot on the health of the labor market after a disappointing May reading.
EUR/USD is showing little movement
EUR/USD is showing little movement on Wednesday, following losses in the Tuesday session. The pair is trading at 1.1060. On the release front, German Factory Orders disappointed with a flat reading of 0.0%, shy of the estimate of 1.0%. The US will release ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI, with the estimate standing at 53.3 points. The spotlight will be on the central banks, as ECB President Mario Draghi addresses an ECB event in Frankfurt, while the Federal Reserve will release the minutes of its June policy meeting. On Thursday, employment numbers will be in focus, with the release of ADP Nonfarm Employment Change and Unemployment Claims.
Tuesday, July 5, 2016
Japanese indicators
Japanese indicators were mostly soft last week, underscoring a weak economy. Household Spending and Retail Sales both posted declines, as the Japanese consumer continues to hold tight to her purse strings. Tokyo Core CPI continues to point to deflation, recording a second straight drop of 0.5%. Still, the yen held its own last week, benefiting from its safe-haven status. As well, the Bank of Japan remains reluctant to adopt further easing, so the yen could continue to rise and move towards the symbolic 100 level.
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