Thursday, July 3, 2014

Gold futures

Gold futures headed for the biggest drop since May after the U.S. added more jobs last month than forecast, curbing demand for a haven asset. The addition of 288,000 jobs followed a 224,000 gain the prior month, Labor Department figures showed today. The median forecast in a Bloomberg survey of economists called for a 215,000 advance.
Bullion rose 11 percent this year through yesterday as the Federal Reserve said it will keep interest rates low for a considerable time after ending bond buying, while unrest in Iraq and Ukraine spurred demand for a haven. The metal plunged 28 percent in 2013, the most in three decades, as the U.S. economy gained traction. The job numbers are telling us that the economy is healthy, and people don't need a lot of safe haven going forward, Alfonso Esparza, a senior currency analyst in Toronto at Oanda Corp Gold will probably now start weakening again.
The gold imports during the first 11 months of the outgoing fiscal year 2013-14 plunged by 43.48 percent as against the same period of last year. According to data revealed by Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS), during the period under review, 4,177 kilogram of yellow metal worth of US$ 172.950 million was imported as compared to the import of 5,740 kg valuing $306.005 million during July-May 2012-13. The overall imports of metal group, registered a decrease of 9.26 percent during the first 11 months of the year 2013-14 against the same period of last year.
The metal group imports in to the country during the period under review were recorded at $2.7438 billion against imports of $3.024 billion during same period of last year.

Mario Draghi's headline

Markets are starting to respond to Mario Draghi's headline about the potential TLTRO take up of EUR1 trillion, notes Valentin Marinov, G10 FX analyst at Citigroup. "This is considerable amount taking into account that the ECB's balance sheet is close to EUR2 trillion. If Draghi is right the ECB balance sheet would grow considerably over time. This should push the ratio of ECB/Fed balance sheet lower before long. Given the historic link between EURUSD and the ratio of Fed/ECB balance sheet - this should underscore the downside risks to EURUSD." The pair is now just above $1.36

Wednesday, July 2, 2014

USD/JPY 7/2

USD/JPY is steady on Wednesday, as the pair trades in the mid-101 range late in the European session. On the release front, today’s highlight is the ADP Nonfarm Payrolls, which should be treated as a market-mover. As well, Federal Reserve chair Janet Yellen will address the IMF in Washington. There are no Japanese releases on Wednesday.
The Tankan indices are key indicators of the health of the Japanese economy, and the May data was disappointing. Tankan Manufacturing Index slipped to 12 points, a three-month low. The Tankan Non-Manufacturing Index dropped to 19 points, down from 24 points a month earlier. This reading matched the estimate. As well, Japanese Average Cash Earnings posted a respectable gain of 0.8%, matching the forecast.

Monday, June 30, 2014

GBP/USD and news

 GBP/USD   Daily
13::30 GMT - GBP's Pressed on into the 1.7050~ ceiling to set up a well-defined trade at the s/t and larger scale boundary here- either:     short from 1.7050-60 (back to 1.6950 (with break down potential there), or: long on a fast move through 1.7060.

The monthly poll of 51 fund managers and chief investment officers in the United States, Britain, Europe and Japan showed the average recommended exposure to equities in global balanced portfolios rose to 51 percent from 50.8 percent.
This small increase came at the expense of allocations to bonds, which were down to 35.6 percent from 35.9 percent a month earlier.
Allocations to cash and alternative investments such as hedge funds remained unchanged at 5.7 percent and 5.6 percent respectively. Property investments were also slightly higher at 2.1 percent, advancing further after having reached their highest levels since June 2011 last month as investors sought out the yields offered by commercial real estate.
Within global equities portfolios, the average allocation to North American stocks rose to 42.1 percent from 41.5 percent while investors also hiked exposure to British stocks to 11.9 percent from 11.5 percent.
This came partly at the expense of equities in the euro zone, where economic recovery is seen as further off than in Britain and the United States.
Extra stimulus from the European Central Bank, which cut its deposit rate to negative earlier this month, and hints from Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen that rates are likely to stay low, are fuelling demand for riskier assets such as equities.

Sunday, June 29, 2014

Market gaps stock market news

Stock market gaps in price are great because they are both the action of a strong supply and demand
imbalance and the picture of new trends, greed, and fear buy buyers and sellers can be spotted when
you know how to trade them. Not every gap sends the same message or represents the same opportunity so traders need to structure them into an understandable check list or trading plan. Once this is done, you can use this information to spot the price action of very novice buying or selling and be there to take the low risk, high profit, and high probability trade. 
Market gaps

Friday, June 27, 2014

USD/JPY Daily

 USD/JPY  Daily
12::55 GMT - The USD's traded sideways for the London session but stillretains the steep am. fall from 101.70~/ Thur's pivot; 101.45         resistance caps and keeps us facing  lower s/t; the 101.40-70 range is open for a fill-in trade higher IF the USD picks uplater. Decline off the 102.00 pivot looks headed for 101~/ the YTD

USD/CHF  Daily
13::35GMT - Earlier recovery failed just ahead of the 0.8940/45 res.   and prices have come under pressure again. Despite the recent action, we think  the 0.8906 recent low may hold awhile longer. In due course, though, we should see a break with next target at 0.8895. Initial res. is at 0.8938/45.N.I.

 GBP/JPY  Daily
13::35 GMT - Slow trade back into this pm. extends the week's decline; GBP edging fresh lows now but still (just) holding above 172.50/ the  mid-Jun separation (which remains bullish positioning.)

Wednesday, June 25, 2014

USD/CHF Daily

 USD/CHF  Daily
13::25GMT - Mkt. has dropped to the 0.8906/9 lows which are holding so far. Bounce res. is at 0.8930 and, while prices hold below here, we   think further decline will follow. Next downside targets are at 0.895 then 0.8860. The higher res. is at 0.8945.N.I.

The dollar fell against major currencies Wednesday after the third and final revision for gross domestic product arrived far lower than economists expected, suggesting the U.S. economy's recovery has further to go before the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates.
The greenback dropped versus the yen to JPY101.68 from JPY101.92 before the number's release, now down 0.3%. Meanwhile, the euro jumped to as high as $1.3652 from $1.3616, up 0.3%.
The Commerce Department lowered the rate of GDP contraction for the first quarter to 2.9%, marking the sharpest pullback since the recession ended five years ago. Analysts had expected a contraction rate of 2%, and the actual rate was much lower than the second revision of 1%.