Thursday, July 3, 2014

Mario Draghi's headline

Markets are starting to respond to Mario Draghi's headline about the potential TLTRO take up of EUR1 trillion, notes Valentin Marinov, G10 FX analyst at Citigroup. "This is considerable amount taking into account that the ECB's balance sheet is close to EUR2 trillion. If Draghi is right the ECB balance sheet would grow considerably over time. This should push the ratio of ECB/Fed balance sheet lower before long. Given the historic link between EURUSD and the ratio of Fed/ECB balance sheet - this should underscore the downside risks to EURUSD." The pair is now just above $1.36