Tuesday, March 8, 2016

Consumer Cyclicals

January began with a sharp, waterfall decline in stock prices. The initial rally after the January 20 low was technically weak and quickly led to a resumed decline and a more-important bottom on February 11. Our Intermediate Term Strategic Indicator Composite of 16 "internal" (or equity-related) relationships and nine "external" (non-equity) markets has moved steadily higher since the January 20 low. Market internals have risen 1.2 sigma from -1.9 on 1/20 to -0.7 sigma. Cyclical sectors have driven the improvement, led by Consumer Cyclicals and Industrials.