EUR/USD 11/26

The euro could fall to its Nov. 14 low of $1.0990 in coming days due to a lack of positive catalysts, ING says. The currency is "now heavily testing the $1.10 support" level despite data Monday showing improved German business confidence in November, which has "added to signs of a bottoming out" in Europe's largest economy, Francesco Pesole, FX strategist at ING, says. The Ifo Institute said Monday that its measure of German business confidence rose to 95.0 this month from an upwardly revised 94.7 in October. "We suspect this week's agenda does not offer enough positive euro catalysts to avert a EUR/USD move to the 1.0990 Nov. 14 low

CRUDE OIL 11/25

CRUDE OIL prices rose toward the end of last week and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) touched the highest since September 23 on Friday. Expectations are still high that OPEC and its allies will extend the current production caps at the December 5-6 meeting, though doubts exist that deeper cuts will be announced. Certainly Russia has dragged its heels when considering cutting production.

China’s apparent crude oil demand rose 7.3% in October from a year earlier to just above 13 million barrels per day (bpd), according to Bloomberg calculations based on data from China’s Customs General Administration. The number of US oil rigs in production fell for a fifth straight week last week and are now at the lowest since end-March 2017.

Sterling 11/25

Sterling would remain stuck in a range between $1.25 and $1.30 under a hung parliament following the December 12 U.K. general election until some political clarity emerges, UBS Global Wealth Management says. "If the election results in a hung parliament, we expect Article 50 will be extended again, followed by a referendum," UBS analysts say in a note. While the Conservatives are leading opinion polls ahead of the election, these should "always be taken not with a grain of salt, but a truck-load," they say. The first past-the-post constituency-based system in the U.K. "doesn't lend itself well to making predictions based on national vote shares." GBP/USD rises 0.3% to 1.2871.(

Major Pairs 11/24

USD/JPY (last 108.72): The pair, as shown on a daily chart, has managed to avoid posting a deeper consolidation. Currently it is trading at levels around the ascending 20-day moving average while being supported by the 50-day moving average (also positively sloped). Key support remains at 108.00. Unless this level is breached, the pair stands chances of revisiting 109.50 and 110.65 on the upside. Alternatively, below 108.00, expect a further decline toward 107.00 on the downside.

EUR/USD (last 1.1021): The pair retreated after touching the declining 20-day moving average. Besides, the bearish cross between 20-day and 50-day moving averages has been identified. The relative strength index has struck against its neutrality level at 50 and is turning downward. Therefore, as long as 1.1090 is not surpassed, expect a drop with targets at 1.0990 and 1.0940 in extension. Alternatively, breaking above 1.1090 would bring another up leg with 1.1185 and 1.1280 as targets.
EUR/USD
1st support - 1.0990 (moderate)
1st resistance - 1.1090 (major)
2nd support - 1.0940 (moderate)
2nd resistance - 1.1185 (major)

GBP/USD
1st support - 1.2760 (major)
1st resistance - 1.3000 (major)
2nd support - 1.2575 (major)
2nd resistance - 1.3175 (major)

GBP/USD (last 1.2848): The pair remains trading within a consolidation range after a recent rally. Currently, support is provided by the ascending 50-day moving average, while the relative strength index stays above the neutrality level of 50, signaling that the bullish bias persists. As long as the key support at 1.2760 holds, the pair should advance to 1.3000 and 1.3175. Alternatively, a break below 1.2760 would trigger a pull-back to 1.2575.

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Sterling falls 11/22

Sterling falls after IHS Markit's first "flash" version of its U.K. purchasing managers' surveys showed a contraction in both services and manufacturing activity in November. The manufacturing purchasing mangers' index fell to 48.3 in November from 49.6 in October, with a reading below 50 indicating a contraction. The services PMI dropped to a 40-month low of 48.6 from 50.0, below expectations for an unchanged reading. "With an upcoming general election adding to Brexit-related uncertainty about the outlook, it's no surprise to see U.K. businesses reporting falling output and orders in November," Markit's Chris Williamson says. GBP/USD is last down 0.3% at 1.2874, down from 1.2899 beforehand. EUR/GBP is last up 0.3% at 0.8593, from 0.8571 beforehand.(

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