EUR/USD has declined for a third straight day

 

EUR/USD has declined for a third straight day on Wednesday. Currently, the pair is trading at 1.1142, down 0.10% on the day. German banks are closed for Ascension Day, and there are no eurozone or German events. It’s a busy day in the U.S., highlighted by second estimate GDP, with an estimate of 3.1%. Unemployment claims is expected to rise to 216 thousand. On Friday, Germany and the U.S. both release inflation and consumer spending data. The slowdown which has gripped the eurozone has also dampened growth in Germany, but the labor market has performed well and remained a bright spot. However, there was negative news in April, as unemployment rolls ballooned by 60 thousand in May, surprising the markets. The indicator has recorded consecutive declines for almost two years, and the estimate stood at -8 thousand. The unemployment rate edged up to 5.0% in May, up from 4.9% in April. The Federal Labor Agency said that the weak numbers indicate “a weakening economy on unemployment”. Trade tensions have hurt the German manufacturing and export sectors, but a tight labor market has boosted consumer spending, a key driver of economic growth. •1.1120 is under pressure in support •1.1212 is the next resistance line • Current range: 1.1120 to 1.1212 Scalping Strategy Course (DVD + Online)

GBP/USD 5.29

After starting the week with slight losses, GBP/USD has paused in the Wednesday session. Currently, GBP/USD is trading at 1.2650, down 0.02% on the day. On the release front, there are no British events. In the U.S., the sole event is the Richmond Manufacturing Index, which is projected to climb to 6 points. On Thursday, the U.S. releases Preliminary GDP and unemployment claims.
Inflation in the U.K. has been moving higher. Consumer inflation pushed above the 2% level in April, with a gain of 2.1%. This marked a 4-month high. The upward trend has continued with shop price inflation, which accelerated to 0.8% in May, up from 0.4% in the previous release.
The U.S. consumer remains very optimistic about the economy, according to the latest CB consumer confidence index. The index jumped to 134.1 in May, up from 129.2 in the April release. This score easily beat the estimate of 130.1 and is close to 18-year highs. Retail sales were soft in April, but the sharp improvement in consumer confidence has raised hopes that retail sales data will improve in May.
•1.2615 is providing support
•1.2723 is the next resistance line
•Current range: 1.2615 to 1.2723
It is getting ugly out there and despite a backdrop of geopolitical risks that could squeeze supplies, the latest trade war threats from China could cripple global growth and thus take down oil prices.  West Texas Intermediate crude is down 2.1% off its worse levels, while Brent’s decline is closer to 1.6% as no end appears in sight for the trade war.  Crude is falling through key support levels and is quickly erasing the effects of the OPEC + production cuts. WTI’s end of year rally to mid-April has seen price give back roughly 40% of those gains.

USD/JPY 5/29

The US dollar is stronger this morning, although not markedly so. This follows on from a modestly stronger performance overnight, notably against the euro (EUR) and the sterling (GBP) both of which are suffering in the aftermath of the European elections and Italian budget woes.

Regional currencies are holding their own for now, but the sentiment remains fragile, and it will not take a lot for investors to hit the exit button on emerging markets and therefore many of the Asian regional currencies.

In Japan, the USD/JPY fell as investors bought yen on safe-haven flows, leaving the cross at 109.40. Strong technical support lies at 109.00 with any negative pronouncements from Trump or escalations on the trade front possibly setting off a test of this level. A daily close below 109.00 implies a deeper correction to USD/JPY is imminent.

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charts Fibonacci

Fib Price Retracement Lines with the extensions turned on. You need to be aware of is that there are about as many rules methods for drawing in fibonacci as there are traders out there talking about them! Many traders and analysts disregard fibs entirely, as there are many traders who keep redoing in their fibs until the chart shows them what they want to see. By redrawing I mean choosing different highs and lows to measure until magically, the fibonacci line up with the trader's analysis.
While this complaint is valid, knowing that fibs indicator are only another indicator of many and that nothing works perfectly every time can give a trader enough confidence to use them effectively. There are many retail trading platforms that don't give data for more than ten or twenty years back in time. When you see the AUD/USD at all-time highs on your platform  only able to see back to 1990 , be aware that this pair has traded much higher than now back in the 1980's. In this case, using Fib extensions can be very helpful.

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