GMT Many corporate clients who export to the U.K. or those with production in the U.K. have so far chosen not to hedge their sterling exposure and are waiting instead to see if the pound turns higher, says an analyst at a Scandinavian bank. This is a risky strategy and could mean a scramble to hedge exposures once sterling breaks below key levels, such as below $1.20 in GBP/USD, the analyst says. "It is very risky because if sterling falls further they could fix at an even lower rate." GBP/USD trades at $1.2216, EUR/GBP at 0.9023
Forex and stock traders are looking for the consistently wrong investor, trader and take the opposite position. This will obviously lead to winning trades for them. All traders have read trading books that point out that increasing volume is good for the continuation of the trend. Many new stock traders will try and fight the trend.
Friday, October 14, 2016
GBP/USD has shown limited movement
•GBP/USD has shown limited movement in the Thursday session
•1.2120 is providing support
•There is resistance at 1.2447
Further levels in both directions:
•Below: 1.2120, 1.1954 and 1.1844
•Above: 1.2447, 1.2525 and 1.2612
•Current range: 1.2120 to 1.2447
GBP/USD ratio is unchanged on Friday, consistent with the lack of movement from GBP/USD. Currently, long positions have a solid majority (60%). This is indicative of trader bias towards GBP/USD breaking out and moving to higher ground.
GBP/USD is unchanged in the Friday session, continuing the lack of activity seen on Thursday. Early in the North American session, the pair is trading at 1.2230. On the release front, the markets have plenty of US numbers to digest, as retail sales and inflation readings were strong. Retail Sales rebounded from a decline last month, posting a strong gain of 0.6%. and matching the forecast. Core Retail Sales improved to 0.3%, edging above the estimate of 0.2%. PPI climbed 0.3%, beating the estimate of 0.2%. Later in the day, we’ll get a look at the UoM Consumer Sentiment report. The markets are expecting the indicator to climb to 92.1 points.
•1.2120 is providing support
•There is resistance at 1.2447
Further levels in both directions:
•Below: 1.2120, 1.1954 and 1.1844
•Above: 1.2447, 1.2525 and 1.2612
•Current range: 1.2120 to 1.2447
GBP/USD ratio is unchanged on Friday, consistent with the lack of movement from GBP/USD. Currently, long positions have a solid majority (60%). This is indicative of trader bias towards GBP/USD breaking out and moving to higher ground.
GBP/USD is unchanged in the Friday session, continuing the lack of activity seen on Thursday. Early in the North American session, the pair is trading at 1.2230. On the release front, the markets have plenty of US numbers to digest, as retail sales and inflation readings were strong. Retail Sales rebounded from a decline last month, posting a strong gain of 0.6%. and matching the forecast. Core Retail Sales improved to 0.3%, edging above the estimate of 0.2%. PPI climbed 0.3%, beating the estimate of 0.2%. Later in the day, we’ll get a look at the UoM Consumer Sentiment report. The markets are expecting the indicator to climb to 92.1 points.
Wednesday, October 12, 2016
USD/JPY
Summary :
Target Level : 104.073
Target Period : 3 days
Analysis :
Ascending Triangle identified at 12-Oct-01:00 2016 GMT. This pattern is still in the process of forming. Possible bullish price movement towards the resistance 104.0730 within the next 3 days.
Resistance Levels :
( B ) 104.073Last resistance turning point of Ascending Triangle.
Support Levels
( A ) 103.173Last support turning point of Ascending Triangle.
Target Level : 104.073
Target Period : 3 days
Analysis :
Ascending Triangle identified at 12-Oct-01:00 2016 GMT. This pattern is still in the process of forming. Possible bullish price movement towards the resistance 104.0730 within the next 3 days.
Resistance Levels :
( B ) 104.073Last resistance turning point of Ascending Triangle.
Support Levels
( A ) 103.173Last support turning point of Ascending Triangle.
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Wednesday, October 5, 2016
Oil rose towards $52 a barrel on Wednesday
Oil rose towards $52 a barrel on Wednesday, hitting its highest since June, supported by an industry report that U.S. inventories probably fell for a fifth straight week and OPEC’s deal to cut supply.
The American Petroleum Institute (API) said on Tuesday that U.S. crude inventories dropped 7.6 million barrels, which would be the fifth straight weekly decline if confirmed by U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) data on Wednesday.
Brent crude was trading at $51.83 a barrel, up 96 cents, at 1204 GMT. The global benchmark touched $51.87 during the session, its highest since June 10. U.S. crude CLc1 was up 91 cents at $49.60.
The American Petroleum Institute (API) said on Tuesday that U.S. crude inventories dropped 7.6 million barrels, which would be the fifth straight weekly decline if confirmed by U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) data on Wednesday.
Brent crude was trading at $51.83 a barrel, up 96 cents, at 1204 GMT. The global benchmark touched $51.87 during the session, its highest since June 10. U.S. crude CLc1 was up 91 cents at $49.60.
Monday, October 3, 2016
Global oil prices steadied on Monday
Global oil prices steadied on Monday as market players weighed last week’s news of a planned OPEC production cut with doubts over its implementation and effectiveness at wiping out a crude supply overhang.
December Brent crude futures remained above $50 a barrel in European trading but by 1400 GMT were flat on the day at $50.19 a barrel, after erasing earlier slight gains. U.S. crude futures were $48.23 a barrel, a cent lower.
Europe and Asia’s largest markets, Germany and China, were both shut for public holidays on Monday, limiting trade.
The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries said last week it would cut output to between 32.5 million barrels per day (bpd) and 33.0 million bpd from about 33.5 million bpd, with details to be finalised at its policy meeting in November.
Brent crude oil prices, most sensitive to any OPEC deal, have climbed more than 8 percent since the planned cuts were announced on Wednesday despite scepticism over the effectiveness of the deal in eroding the global surplus.
“Naysayers will undoubtedly fade the headline (of the output cut) and deem the agreement typical OPEC noise, yet at a minimum it means that OPEC has bought themselves a price floor for at least the next two months heading into the November meeting,” analysts at RBC Capital Markets said in a note.
December Brent crude futures remained above $50 a barrel in European trading but by 1400 GMT were flat on the day at $50.19 a barrel, after erasing earlier slight gains. U.S. crude futures were $48.23 a barrel, a cent lower.
Europe and Asia’s largest markets, Germany and China, were both shut for public holidays on Monday, limiting trade.
The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries said last week it would cut output to between 32.5 million barrels per day (bpd) and 33.0 million bpd from about 33.5 million bpd, with details to be finalised at its policy meeting in November.
Brent crude oil prices, most sensitive to any OPEC deal, have climbed more than 8 percent since the planned cuts were announced on Wednesday despite scepticism over the effectiveness of the deal in eroding the global surplus.
“Naysayers will undoubtedly fade the headline (of the output cut) and deem the agreement typical OPEC noise, yet at a minimum it means that OPEC has bought themselves a price floor for at least the next two months heading into the November meeting,” analysts at RBC Capital Markets said in a note.
Thursday, September 29, 2016
GBP/USD continues to have a quiet week
GBP/USD continues to have a quiet week, as the pair trades at the 1.30 line in Thursday’s North American session. On the release front, it’s a data-heavy day. British Net Lending to Individuals improved to GBP 4.5 billion, beating the estimate of GBP 4.0 billion. In the US, Final GDP gained 1.4%, edging above the forecast of 1.3%. Unemployment Claims edged up to 254 thousand, beating the forecast of 260 thousand. Later in the day, the US releases Pending Home Sales. On Friday, the UK releases Current Account and Final GDP. The US will publish the UoM Consumer Sentiment report.
•GBP/USD posted small losses in the Asian session. The pair was choppy in European trade and has posted slight losses in the North American session
•1.2899 is providing strong support
•1.3033 is a weak resistance line. It could see further action in the North American session
Further levels in both directions:
•Below: 1.2899, 1.2778 and 1.2612
•Above: 1.3033, 1.3142, 1.3219 and 1.3327
•Current range: 1.2899 to 1.3033
GBP/USD ratio is unchanged in the Thursday session. Currently, long positions have a strong majority (72%). This is indicative of trader bias towards GBP/USD reversing directions and moving to higher ground.
•GBP/USD posted small losses in the Asian session. The pair was choppy in European trade and has posted slight losses in the North American session
•1.2899 is providing strong support
•1.3033 is a weak resistance line. It could see further action in the North American session
Further levels in both directions:
•Below: 1.2899, 1.2778 and 1.2612
•Above: 1.3033, 1.3142, 1.3219 and 1.3327
•Current range: 1.2899 to 1.3033
GBP/USD ratio is unchanged in the Thursday session. Currently, long positions have a strong majority (72%). This is indicative of trader bias towards GBP/USD reversing directions and moving to higher ground.
Wednesday, September 28, 2016
Canadian dollar continues to struggle
The Canadian dollar continues to struggle, as USD/CAD remains above the 1.32 level. USD/CAD touched 1.3275 on Tuesday, as the Canadian dollar slumped to its lowest level since March. The slide started after weak Canadian consumer indicators on Friday. Core Retail Sales was the biggest disappointment, as the market forecast of +0.5% was dashed by a weak reading of -0.1%. Core CPI remained stagnant at 0.0% for a third straight month, underscoring persistent low inflation levels. The BoC has stated its concerns about weak inflation, and these soft releases will add pressure on the bank to consider reducing interest rates at its October policy meeting. The Canadian dollar is sensitive to oil price movement, and with OPEC members holding an informal meeting on Wednesday in Algiers, we could see some volatility from crude which could affect the movement of USD/CAD.
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