USD/JPY trades up 0.7% at 102.53, as the dollar gains in the wake of Friday's stronger-than-expected U.S. jobs data. Boris Schlossberg, managing director of FX strategy at BK Asset Management thinks a September U.S. rate hike is unlikely, but says further strong U.S. data raises the prospect of a strong hint in September of a rate hike in December. "The key to that thesis is the quality of U.S. data over the next few weeks. If it proves supportive, starting with the retail sales this Friday the USD/JPY ... could climb towards the 104.00 figure
Forex and stock traders are looking for the consistently wrong investor, trader and take the opposite position. This will obviously lead to winning trades for them. All traders have read trading books that point out that increasing volume is good for the continuation of the trend. Many new stock traders will try and fight the trend.
Monday, August 8, 2016
Friday, August 5, 2016
Sterling is set to fall further against the dollar
Sterling is set to fall further against the dollar in the medium to long term due to the uncertainty following the U.K.’s vote to leave the European Union. In fact, the currency is expected to hit $1.25 sooner than later, a number of analysts told CNBC.
“I have a 1.25 forecast for GBP/USD over the next three months. If the data remains weak, that forecast risks being revised further lower,” Jeremy Stretch, head of G10 FX strategy at CIBC Capital Markets told CNBC via email.
“The recalibration of macro assumptions post-Brexit has yet to force the Bank of England to forecast annual negative growth. However, the scale of the immediate growth revisions has prompted an aggressive policy response, in large part as the bank attempts to get ahead of what is expected to be increasingly weak real economy data.”
“I have a 1.25 forecast for GBP/USD over the next three months. If the data remains weak, that forecast risks being revised further lower,” Jeremy Stretch, head of G10 FX strategy at CIBC Capital Markets told CNBC via email.
“The recalibration of macro assumptions post-Brexit has yet to force the Bank of England to forecast annual negative growth. However, the scale of the immediate growth revisions has prompted an aggressive policy response, in large part as the bank attempts to get ahead of what is expected to be increasingly weak real economy data.”
Thursday, August 4, 2016
GBP/USD Chart
Summary :
Target Level : 1.3385
Target Period : 3 days
Analysis :
Ascending Triangle has broken through the resistance line at 02-Aug-16:00 2016 GMT. Possible bullish price movement forecast for the next 3 days towards 1.338.
Supporting Indicators :
Upward sloping Moving Average
Resistance Levels :
Support Levels
( A ) 1.3172Last support turning point of Ascending Triangle.
Target Level : 1.3385
Target Period : 3 days
Analysis :
Ascending Triangle has broken through the resistance line at 02-Aug-16:00 2016 GMT. Possible bullish price movement forecast for the next 3 days towards 1.338.
Supporting Indicators :
Upward sloping Moving Average
Resistance Levels :
Support Levels
( A ) 1.3172Last support turning point of Ascending Triangle.
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Wednesday, August 3, 2016
Crude Oil Inventories surprised the markets with a surplus of 1.4 million last week
US crude is trading just below the $40 level on Wednesday. In the North American session, WTI/USD futures are trading at $39.97 Brent crude is trading at $42.54, as the Brent premium has widened t0 $2.57. On the release front, Crude Oil Inventories gained 1.4 million, surprising the markets which had expected a decline. ADP Nonfarm Payrolls improved to 179 thousand, beating the estimate. The ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI came in at 55.5 points, short of expectations. On Thursday, the US releases Unemployment Claims and the RBA will publish a monetary policy statement.
Crude Oil Inventories surprised the markets with a surplus of 1.4 million last week. The estimate stood at -1.6 million. The gain underscores the oversupply of crude on world markets, which has weighed on oil prices. US crude has broken below the symbolic $40 level, and with producer countries showing little appetite to curb output, the downturn in prices could continue.
Crude Oil Inventories surprised the markets with a surplus of 1.4 million last week. The estimate stood at -1.6 million. The gain underscores the oversupply of crude on world markets, which has weighed on oil prices. US crude has broken below the symbolic $40 level, and with producer countries showing little appetite to curb output, the downturn in prices could continue.
The British pound is showing little movement on Wednesday
The British pound is showing little movement on Wednesday. Early in the North American session, GBP/USD is trading at 1.3340. On the release front, it’s a quiet day. British Construction PMI was unchanged at 47.4 points, matching the forecast. In the US, there are two key indicators on the schedule. ADP Nonfarm Employment Change improved to 179 thousand, beating expectations. Later in the day, the US releases ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI. On Thursday, we could see some volatility from the pound, as the the BoE is widely expected to lower interest rates, Over in the US, the key event is Unemployment Claims.
•GBP/USD has shown limited movement in the Wednesday session
•1.3219 is providing strong support
•1.3359 was tested earlier in resistance and is a weak line. It could break in the North American session
Further levels in both directions:
•Below: 1.3219, 1.3142, 1.3064 and 1.2938
•Above: 1.3359, 1.3513 and 1.3667
•Current range: 1.3219 to 1.3359
GBP/USD ratio has shown slight gains in short positions. Long and short positions are close to an even split, indicative of a lack of trader bias as to what direction GBP/USD will take next.
•GBP/USD has shown limited movement in the Wednesday session
•1.3219 is providing strong support
•1.3359 was tested earlier in resistance and is a weak line. It could break in the North American session
Further levels in both directions:
•Below: 1.3219, 1.3142, 1.3064 and 1.2938
•Above: 1.3359, 1.3513 and 1.3667
•Current range: 1.3219 to 1.3359
GBP/USD ratio has shown slight gains in short positions. Long and short positions are close to an even split, indicative of a lack of trader bias as to what direction GBP/USD will take next.
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