The British pound

The British pound is unchanged at the start of the new trading week. Early in the North American session, GBP/USD is trading slightly at the 1.31 line. On the release front, it’s a quiet start to the week, with just one event on the schedule. British CBI Industrial Order Expectations came in at -4 points, within expectations. There are no US releases on Monday. On Tuesday, the US releases CB Consumer Confidence and New Home Sales, both key indicators.•GBP/USD was flat in the Asian session and has posted sharp losses in the European session. The pair is showing limited movement early in the North American session
•1.3142 has switched to a resistance role following sharp losses by GBP/USD in the European session
•1.3064 is providing support. It is a weak line and could be tested in the North American session
GBP/USD ratio is showing gains in long positions on Friday, consistent with the sharp losses recorded by GBP/USD. Currently, long positions have a majority (54%), indicative of trader bias towards GBP/USD reversing directions and moving higher.

The Japanese yen is almost unchanged in the Monday

The Japanese yen is almost unchanged in the Monday session, as USD/JPY is trading slightly above the 106 level. On the release front, Japanese Trade Balance came in at JPY 33 trillion, easily beating expectations. Later in the day, Japan releases the Services Producer Price Index, which measures inflation in the corporate sector. The markets are expecting a weak gain of 0.1%. In the US, there are no events on the schedule. On Tuesday, the US releases CB Consumer Confidence and New Home Sales, both key indicators.
Although there were no major releases out of Japan last week, the yen showed a fair bit of volatility. Much of the movement can be attributed to market speculation as to what measures the Abe government and Bank of Japan will take in the next few weeks. The yen slipped on Wednesday on speculation that the government was planning a large fiscal spending package. However, the currency reversed directions and climbed on Thursday after BoJ Governor Haruhiko Kuroda flatly rejected the use of “helicopter money” – or increasing the budget deficit by a permanent increase in monetary base – in order to combat deflation. This tool is seen as an alternative to quantitative easing and some economists have suggested it could be used in Japan, with interest rates in negative territory and the economy in danger of recession. Kuroda added that the bank has not changed its stance of adopting further easing by way of quantitative easing, qualitative easing or lowering interest rates. The Bank of Japan meets for a policy meeting on Thursday and the markets will be looking for hints as to what, if any, monetary steps the bank will choose to implement.
The USD/JPY ratio is currently showing long positions with a majority (55%), indicative of trader bias towards USD/JPY breaking out and moving towards higher ground.

GBP/USD Chart

Summary :
Target Level : 1.3065
Target Period : 3 days
Analysis :
Head and Shoulders identified at 22-Jul-16:00 2016 GMT. This pattern is still in the process of forming. Possible bearish price movement towards the support 1.306 within the next 3 days.
Supporting Indicators :
Downward sloping Moving Average
Resistance Levels :
( B ) 1.3292Last resistance turning point of Head and Shoulders.
Support Levels
( A ) 1.3065Last support turning point of Head and Shoulders.

Chart date range : 05-Jul-00:00 GMT-> 25-Jul-08:00 GMT Data interval : 4 hour RSI: 34 Candles MA: 34 Candles

GBP/USD ratio is showing slight movement

GBP/USD ratio is showing slight movement in short positions. Long and short positions are close to an even split, indicative of a lack of trader bias as to what direction GBP/USD will take.•GBP/USD was flat in the Asian session and has posted considerable losses in the European session
•1.3142 is providing support
•1.3219 was tested earlier in resistance and remains a weak line
Further levels in both directions:
•Below: 1.3142, 1.3064 and 1.2938
•Above: 1.3219, 1.3349, 1.3513 and 1.3675
•Current range: 1.3142 to 1.3219
The British pound has reversed directions on Thursday, posting slight losses. Early in the North American session, GBP/USD is trading at the 1.32 line. In economic news, British Retail Sales declined by 0.9%, missing expectations. Public Sector Net Borrowing improved to GBP 7.3 billion, beating the estimate. Over in the US, it’s a busy day. Unemployment Claims remained steady at 253 thousand, well below the forecast. The Philly Fed Manufacturing Index disappointed with a decline of 2.9 points. Later in the day, we’ll get a look at Existing Home Sales, with the indicator expected to soften to 5.48 million.

EUR/USD

Summary :
Target Level : 1.107
Target Period : 2 days
Analysis :
Falling Wedge has broken through the resistance line at 21-Jul-04:00 2016 GMT. Possible bullish price movement forecast for the next 2 days towards 1.107.
Resistance Levels :
( B ) 1.1077Last resistance turning point of Falling Wedge.
Support Levels
( A ) 1.0981Last support turning point of Falling Wedge.

Chart date range : 05-Jul-16:00 GMT-> 21-Jul-04:00 GMT Data interval : 4 hour RSI: 34 Candles MA: 34 Candles

The pound climbed from a one-week low as a report showed

The pound climbed from a one-week low as a report showed the U.K. unemployment rate fell below 5 percent for the first time since 2005.
Sterling was further boosted by a Bank of England survey which showed that despite an increase in business uncertainty after the June 23 referendum where the U.K. voted to leave the European Union, firms sought to maintain “business as usual.”
The British currency gained versus all of its 16 major peers as data showed the U.K. jobless rate, as measured by International Labour Organisation standards, dropped to 4.9 percent in the three months through May. The median forecast in a Bloomberg survey of economists was for an unchanged reading of 5 percent. Separate wage data showed average weekly earnings unexpectedly fell.
“It’s a double push really for the pound,” said Neil Jones, London-based head of hedge-fund sales at Mizuho Bank Ltd. “We have got insight into the thinking of businesses and it looks like the hiring plans” are not expected to change “for the moment, so we can probably maintain some healthy levels of employment.”
The pound rose 0.3 percent to $1.3154 as of 2:26 p.m. London time, after falling earlier to $1.3065, the lowest since July 12. Sterling strengthened 0.5 percent to 83.61 pence per euro.

Brent is testing its July lows

Should we see a break of this level, it could spark another move lower with the next key area of support coming around $42.20-43.30, where the 200 and 240-day SMAs intersect a prior zone of support and resistance.
This would also coincide with the channel support that Brent appears to have been trading within over the last seven weeks and would therefore not yet indicate a more severe move lower.
That said, should we see a break below here, then price would now be trading below all of these moving averages and potentially have broken below its established range which would indicate that any bullish correction may have run its course and we could be heading much lower.
 Brent is testing its July lows having broken lower in the last hour or two, a break of which could prompt a break of the 89-day SMA mentioned above.