The price of spot gold edged towards a two-month low on Friday morning as analysts weighed up the many factors that have been causing the commodity to trade in a tight range in recent months. Gold slipped to $1,279 per ounce in morning trade. It had been on a five-day losing streak and was headed for its worst week in five. That trend had turned around by midday London time with the price moving higher as tensions re-emerged in eastern Ukraine. But this could prove to be a brief respite with gold watchers predicting a slight fall in the longer term.In the 10 years up until last December 2012, gold had surged around 400 percent, with the help of low interest rates, extra Federal Reserve liquidity and concerns over the global economy. In 2013 it lost 30 percent of its value with the Fed beginning to dial back its $85 billion-a-month stimulus program. This year, meanwhile, the precious metal has added 6 percent to its price with a range of factors influencing both speculators and physical gold buyers.
Forex and stock traders are looking for the consistently wrong investor, trader and take the opposite position. This will obviously lead to winning trades for them. All traders have read trading books that point out that increasing volume is good for the continuation of the trend. Many new stock traders will try and fight the trend.
Friday, August 22, 2014
Thursday, August 21, 2014
USD/JPY
The US dollar continues to gain ground against the Japanese yen, as USD/JPY flirts with the 104 range early in the North American session. On the release front, Japanese Manufacturing PMI improved to 52.4 points, beating the estimate. US Unemployment Claims beat the estimate, coming in at 298 thousand. Later in the day, we’ll get a look at the Philly Fed Manufacturing Index. The markets are braced for a sharp drop in the July reading.
In a highly anticipated event, the Federal Reserve released its policy meeting minutes on Wednesday. The minutes were hawkish in tone, with the Fed saying that an interest rate hike could come sooner rather than later if employment numbers continue to improve. The Fed said that the economy continues to improve, but the QE program, which is scheduled to wind up in October, will not be accelerated. The US dollar was broadly higher after the release of the minutes and gained about 80 points on Wednesday at the yen’s expense.
Gold prices are lower on Wednesday, as the metal has slipped to two-month lows. The spot price stands at $1281.34 per ounce in the European session. On the release front, it’s a busy day in the US, led by two key events Unemployment Claims and the Philly Fed Manufacturing Index. On Wednesday, the Federal Reserve released its minutes, and the hawkish tone gave a boost to the US dollar and pushed gold prices lower.
In a highly anticipated event, the Federal Reserve released its policy meeting minutes on Wednesday. The minutes were hawkish in tone, with the Fed saying that an interest rate hike could come sooner rather than later if employment numbers continue to improve. The Fed said that the economy continues to improve, but the QE program, which is scheduled to wind up in October, will not be accelerated. The US dollar was broadly higher after the release of the minutes and gained about 80 points on Wednesday at the yen’s expense.
Gold prices are lower on Wednesday, as the metal has slipped to two-month lows. The spot price stands at $1281.34 per ounce in the European session. On the release front, it’s a busy day in the US, led by two key events Unemployment Claims and the Philly Fed Manufacturing Index. On Wednesday, the Federal Reserve released its minutes, and the hawkish tone gave a boost to the US dollar and pushed gold prices lower.
Wednesday, August 20, 2014
Gold and French Preliminary GDP
Gold is stable in Wednesday trading, as the metal continues to stay close to the key $1300 level. The spot price stands at $1297.16 per ounce in the European session. It’s a quiet day on the release front, highlighted by the Federal Reserve minutes, which should be treated by traders as a market-mover. Inflation numbers in the US remain at very low levels. On Tuesday, CPI and Core CPI, the primary gauges of consumer inflation, both posted paltry gains of 0.1%. These weak readings come on the heels of PPI, a manufacturing inflation index, which also came in at 0.1% last month. Weak inflation is one reason why the Federal Reserve is in no rush to raise interest rates, as low inflation points to slack in the economy.
Despite broad interest rate cuts by the ECB in June, the Eurozone continues to limp along, including Germany, the region’s locomotive. Inflation and growth levels remain weak, as underscored by last week’s GBP and inflation releases. French Preliminary GDP remained flat at 0.0%, unchanged from a month earlier. German Preliminary GDP slipped to -0.2%, the first contraction in the German economy since Q4 of 2012. Eurozone Flash GDP also weakened to -0.2%, down from 0.0% in the previous release. All three GDP releases missed their estimates, and the weak numbers could push the euro even lower. On the inflation front, the news is not good, as deflation is a growing concern. Last week, Eurozone Final CPI dipped to 0.4%, down from 0.5% a month earlier. As well, German and French inflation numbers remained weak.
Despite broad interest rate cuts by the ECB in June, the Eurozone continues to limp along, including Germany, the region’s locomotive. Inflation and growth levels remain weak, as underscored by last week’s GBP and inflation releases. French Preliminary GDP remained flat at 0.0%, unchanged from a month earlier. German Preliminary GDP slipped to -0.2%, the first contraction in the German economy since Q4 of 2012. Eurozone Flash GDP also weakened to -0.2%, down from 0.0% in the previous release. All three GDP releases missed their estimates, and the weak numbers could push the euro even lower. On the inflation front, the news is not good, as deflation is a growing concern. Last week, Eurozone Final CPI dipped to 0.4%, down from 0.5% a month earlier. As well, German and French inflation numbers remained weak.
Tuesday, August 19, 2014
Price and Profits in Trading
No matter what you trade stocks, Forex, Futures price movement is called a trend you have up trends and down trends. As traders we identify the trend as the main direction of price movement. The faster movements in the same direction of the trend are called the impulses. The opposite movements against the trend are corrections it just depends on the buyers and sellers. Most traders trade in the direction of the trend and attempt to enter into the impulses or at support areas. The hardest part is realizing that how and why prices turn and move in markets has never changed, no matter how far technology advances it can change with news and volume. Faster and better number crunching will never be more important than knowing where banks and brokers are buying and selling. Keeping things simple is the single greatest challenge for the average trader since they cannot place such large orders as they can.
Price and Profits
Gold rose 8.4 percent
Gold rose for the first time in three days in New York as investors weighed the standoff over Ukraine against a stronger dollar. Palladium was near a 13-year high.
Gold rose 8.4 percent this year partly as unrest helped fuel demand. Ukrainian government forces took control of one of four districts in the pro-Russian separatist stronghold of Luhansk, as the Red Cross said its working toward agreement on details of a safe-passage plan for a Russian aid convoy. Talks on a halt to the fighting stalled yesterday. Israel and Palestinian militants agreed to extend their five-day truce for 24 hours in another attempt to reach a long-term accord.
The dollar was near a nine-month high versus the euro amid signs of economic recovery that support the case for the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates. The Fed releases minutes of its July 29-30 policy meeting tomorrow and Chair Janet Yellen is due to deliver a speech on Aug. 22 at an annual symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyoming. Prospects for higher borrowing costs may support the greenback, and gold usually moves inversely to the currency.
Gold rose 8.4 percent this year partly as unrest helped fuel demand. Ukrainian government forces took control of one of four districts in the pro-Russian separatist stronghold of Luhansk, as the Red Cross said its working toward agreement on details of a safe-passage plan for a Russian aid convoy. Talks on a halt to the fighting stalled yesterday. Israel and Palestinian militants agreed to extend their five-day truce for 24 hours in another attempt to reach a long-term accord.
The dollar was near a nine-month high versus the euro amid signs of economic recovery that support the case for the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates. The Fed releases minutes of its July 29-30 policy meeting tomorrow and Chair Janet Yellen is due to deliver a speech on Aug. 22 at an annual symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyoming. Prospects for higher borrowing costs may support the greenback, and gold usually moves inversely to the currency.
Monday, August 18, 2014
GBP/USD Daily USD/JPY
GBP/USD Daily
13::10 GMT - After starting a bit higher today, the mkt. has leveled off into a flat trade-still capped below the recent lows at 1.6750/60. Latter is res. followed by the 1.68 area. To the downside, very close sup. is at 1.6695/00 then 1.6654. N.I.
Despite broad interest rate cuts by the ECB in June, the Eurozone continues to limp along, including Germany, the region’s locomotive. Inflation and growth levels remain weak, as underscored by last week’s GBP and inflation releases. French Preliminary GDP remained flat at 0.0%, unchanged from a month earlier. German Preliminary GDP slipped to -0.2%, the first contraction in the German economy since Q4 of 2012. Eurozone Flash GDP also weakened to -0.2%, down from 0.0% in the previous release. All three GDP releases missed their estimates, and the weak numbers could push the euro even lower. On the inflation front, the news is not good, as deflation is a growing concern. Last week, Eurozone Final CPI dipped to 0.4%, down from 0.5% a month earlier. As well, German and French inflation numbers remained weak.
The US dollar has posted slight gains on Monday, as trades in the mid-102 range late in the European session. On the release front, there is only one US release on Monday, NAHB Housing Market Index. The markets are not expecting any change from the previous release. Japan starts off the week with no releases on the schedule.
With the US continuing to suffer from low inflation levels, markets expectations have been low for key inflation indicators. On Friday, PPI, the primary gauge of inflation in the manufacturing sector, slipped to 0.1%, down from 0.4% a month earlier. This matched the estimate. Weak inflation is one reason why the Federal Reserve is in no rush to raise interest rates, as low inflation points to slack in the economy. On the manufacturing front, the Empire State Manufacturing Index plunged to 14.3 points, down from 23.6 points in the previous release. This marked a three-month low and was well of the estimate of 20.3 points.
13::10 GMT - After starting a bit higher today, the mkt. has leveled off into a flat trade-still capped below the recent lows at 1.6750/60. Latter is res. followed by the 1.68 area. To the downside, very close sup. is at 1.6695/00 then 1.6654. N.I.
Despite broad interest rate cuts by the ECB in June, the Eurozone continues to limp along, including Germany, the region’s locomotive. Inflation and growth levels remain weak, as underscored by last week’s GBP and inflation releases. French Preliminary GDP remained flat at 0.0%, unchanged from a month earlier. German Preliminary GDP slipped to -0.2%, the first contraction in the German economy since Q4 of 2012. Eurozone Flash GDP also weakened to -0.2%, down from 0.0% in the previous release. All three GDP releases missed their estimates, and the weak numbers could push the euro even lower. On the inflation front, the news is not good, as deflation is a growing concern. Last week, Eurozone Final CPI dipped to 0.4%, down from 0.5% a month earlier. As well, German and French inflation numbers remained weak.
The US dollar has posted slight gains on Monday, as trades in the mid-102 range late in the European session. On the release front, there is only one US release on Monday, NAHB Housing Market Index. The markets are not expecting any change from the previous release. Japan starts off the week with no releases on the schedule.
With the US continuing to suffer from low inflation levels, markets expectations have been low for key inflation indicators. On Friday, PPI, the primary gauge of inflation in the manufacturing sector, slipped to 0.1%, down from 0.4% a month earlier. This matched the estimate. Weak inflation is one reason why the Federal Reserve is in no rush to raise interest rates, as low inflation points to slack in the economy. On the manufacturing front, the Empire State Manufacturing Index plunged to 14.3 points, down from 23.6 points in the previous release. This marked a three-month low and was well of the estimate of 20.3 points.
Thursday, August 14, 2014
AUD/USD
AUD/USD has edged higher on Thursday, as the pair trades in the low-0.93 range early in the North American session. On the release front, Australian MI Inflation Expectations dropped to 3.1% in July. In the US, Unemployment Claims climbed to 311 thousand, above expectations.
In the US, Unemployment Claims fell short of expectations. The indicator climbed to 311 thousand, marking a six-week high. The estimate stood at 307 thousand. Employment indicators are under the market microscope, as the strength of the labor market is one of the most important factors influencing the Federal Reserve regarding the timing of an interest rate hike. A rate increase is expected by mid-2015, but stronger economic data, especially on the employment front, could hasten a move by the Fed. Earlier in the week, JOLTS Job Openings hit its highest level in 13 years, although it too missed expectations.
In the US, Unemployment Claims fell short of expectations. The indicator climbed to 311 thousand, marking a six-week high. The estimate stood at 307 thousand. Employment indicators are under the market microscope, as the strength of the labor market is one of the most important factors influencing the Federal Reserve regarding the timing of an interest rate hike. A rate increase is expected by mid-2015, but stronger economic data, especially on the employment front, could hasten a move by the Fed. Earlier in the week, JOLTS Job Openings hit its highest level in 13 years, although it too missed expectations.
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