USD/JPY--USD/RUB

At a policy meeting this week, the Bank of Japan opted to hold course with its current monetary easing, and the minutes will be released later on Thursday. Any unexpected dissensions amongst policy makers in the minutes could have an impact on USD/JPY. Under current monetary policy, the money base has been increasing at an annual pace of 60-70 trillion yen. This has led to a severe weakening of the yen, so traders can expect the currency to remain below the 100 level, absent unexpectedly strong data out of Japan.

Fresh US sanctions against Russia drag the ruble down to a six-week low against the US dollar, but Morgan Stanley says the current pace of the selloff won't be sustained. Higher oil prices should benefit the ruble; Russia is a huge oil exporter, and lofty oil prices will lead to more money being converted into rubles to buy Russian oil. Russia's central bank also may step in to stabilize the ruble and cap its weakness. Morgan Stanley warns about potential spillover effects in the Polish zloty and Hungarian forint, which are down today against both the euro and dollar. USD/RUB at 34.93, up 1%.

USD/CAD

BMO Capital Markets says there's a mix of short- and medium-term foreign exchange players who are positioned roughly short-to-neutral on the Canadian dollar going into today's Bank of Canada policy statement at 10am. It suggests the broader consensus is for a more "dovish" tone in the statement and in the Bank's quarterly monetary policy report, which will be released at the same time. Firm warns, however, that this leaves room for USD/CAD to fall back to the low 1.0700s today if there is roughly no change in the tone at all. It would also leave the greenback vulnerable to further downside if Canadian CPI data for June on Friday is stronger than expected.

EUR/USD

EUR/USD has edged lower on Thursday, as the pair trades in the mid-1.36 range in the European session. On the release front, French and Italian Industrial Production both posted sharp declines. Today’s highlight in the US is Unemployment Claims. Little change is expected from the previous release.
The Federal Reserve minutes did not shed much light on when the Fed plans to raise interest rates, but policymakers did agree to wind up the QE scheme by October. The asset purchase program flooded the economy with over $2 trillion, and the Fed has been steadily reducing the program since last December. Winding down QE will require several more tapers by the Fed, but that shouldn’t pose a problem, given the solid employment data the economy has been churning out. EUR/USD did not show much response to the low-key minutes, with the euro posting slight gains on Wednesday.

EUR/USD

EUR/USD has edged lower on Thursday, as the pair trades in the mid-1.36 range in the European session. On the release front, French and Italian Industrial Production both posted sharp declines. Today’s highlight in the US is Unemployment Claims. Little change is expected from the previous release.
The Federal Reserve minutes did not shed much light on when the Fed plans to raise interest rates, but policymakers did agree to wind up the QE scheme by October. The asset purchase program flooded the economy with over $2 trillion, and the Fed has been steadily reducing the program since last December. Winding down QE will require several more tapers by the Fed, but that shouldn’t pose a problem, given the solid employment data the economy has been churning out. EUR/USD did not show much response to the low-key minutes, with the euro posting slight gains on Wednesday.

Stock market trading plan

Your position size should be such that you are not risking more than what you determine to be a truly acceptable loss. You should make sure this number which is really your ultimate risk is a number you are very comfortable with. With the correct numbers figured in your plan, you can be wrong and lose money on two out of every three trades for the rest of your life and do very well. So you completely understand, both losing trades were profitable for a bit and then stopped out after moving your protective stop order closer to your entry price. These were not full stop losses but even if they were, it would still be more than fine because your protecting profits. Taking your proper losses and holding your positions to your profit targets is the key to small losses and larger profits. Traders shound not be greedy "pigs get slaughtered".

Trading plan

GBP/USD Daily

 GBP/USD   Daily
13::00 GMT - Drop back this am. has drawn GBP into a trading range     below 1.7120 but still inside Tues' range- rally potential is on hold for now whilst a smaller 2/3 day balance trades between 1.7110 & 1.7130. Market is still on track for a  July/ start Aug top.

 GBP/JPY  Daily
13::10 GMT - GBP's sitting on 173.80~/ a 50% retrace of the latest (end-June) rise : GBP's tended to hold the mid point on pullbacks since   May and is therefore positioned for another run up here. Push past 174.40 or so improves. Next refs. up: 175.50, 181.35.

forex contingent

Not the ideal start to a week where many expected more enthusiasms to be expressed across the various asset classes, especially after last week’s strong U.S. employment headline print. Maybe the market is priming itself for the summer doldrums. The global equities excuse is that investors prefer to assess equity valuations ahead of corporate earnings reports. Too many investors think it’s a tad rich at record highs to consider jumping in with both feet.
The forex contingent continues to live off scraps, with the 18-member single unit being squeezed mostly on the crosses rather than outright. Today the EUR happens to get a small lift from an ‘old foe,’ the U.K., whose headline economic releases have managed to push the pound to different heights, something that was not expected.