Thursday, June 12, 2014

U.S. dollar

The U.S. dollar remained little changed against most of its major rivals Thursday after the release of slightly disappointing numbers for May retail sales and weekly jobless claims.
The data pointed to a slowly improving U.S. economy and was unlikely to prompt the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates sooner than expected.
The dollar held steady against the yen at 102.04, while the euro traded flat at $1.3534.
The Commerce Department reported Thursday that retail and food sales rose 0.3% in May from the previous month to $437.65 billion, and were flat when gasoline and autos were excluded. That compares with expectations of sales rising 0.7% in total and 0.4% excluding autos.
In addition, the Labor Department said that initial claims for unemployment benefits rose by 4,000 to 317,000 in the week ended June 7, while economists had forecast 310,000 claims.
While the numbers were below expectations, they were expected to do little to convince investors that the Fed will move forward its timing for raising interest rates, said Michael Woolfolk, senior currency strategist at BNY Mellon. Higher rates would boost the dollar against rivals, as it would increase investors' returns in dollar-denominated assets.

Wednesday, June 11, 2014

USD/CAD

USD/CAD is steady in Wednesday trade, as the pair trades below the 1.09 early in the North American session. This is the first time that USD/CAD has been in 1.08 territory in over a week. In the US, it’s a quiet day, highlighted by Crude Oil Inventories. There are no releases out of Canada on Wednesday.
There was more good news on the US employment front, as JOLTS Job Openings jumped to 4.46 million, up sharply from 4.01 million a month earlier. This easily beat the estimate of 4.04 million, and comes on the heels of a positive Nonfarm Payrolls last week. We’ll get a look at Unemployment Claims on Thursday, with the markets expecting a slight improvement compared to the previous release. There has been only one Canadian release so far this week. Canadian Housing Sales hit 198 thousand in May, easily beating the estimate of 185 thousand. This points to strong activity in the Canadian housing sector, a critical component of economic growth. We’ll get look at Manufacturing Sales, the highlight event of the week, on Friday.

AUD/USD

AUD/USD has posted modest gains on Wednesday, as the pair flirts with the 0.94 line early in the North American session. The Aussie is on a roll, having gained about 150 points in the past week. On the release front, Australian Consumer Sentiment bounced back with a gain in May. In the US, today’s highlight is Crude Oil Inventories.
On Wednesday, Australian Consumer Sentiment posted a modest gain of 0.2%, bouncing back after a sharp decline of 5.6% a month earlier. This was welcome news, as the consumer confidence indicator posted only its second gain of the year. Earlier in the week, CPI jumped 2.5% in May, a four-month high. The strong reading edged above the estimate of 2.4%. NAB Business Confidence came in at 7 points, as the indicator continues to move upwards. Meanwhile, ANZ Job Advertisements took a tumble, posting a sharp decline of 5.6%, its worst showing in three years. We could see some stronger movement on Thursday, with the release of Employment Change and the Unemployment Rate.
There was more good news on the US employment front, as JOLTS Job Openings jumped to 4.46 million, up sharply from 4.01 million a month earlier. This easily beat the estimate of 4.04 million, and comes on the heels of a positive Nonfarm Payrolls last week. We’ll get a look at Unemployment Claims on Thursday, with the markets expecting a slight improvement compared to the previous release.

Tuesday, June 10, 2014

The Australian dollar

The Australian dollar continues to improve, having gained about 140 points in the past week. Australian CPI jumped 2.5% in May, a four-month high. The strong reading edged above the estimate of 2.4%. NAB Business Confidence came in at 7 points, as the indicator continues to move upwards. Meanwhile, ANZ Job Advertisements took a tumble, posting a sharp decline of 5.6%, its worst showing in three years. We’ll get a look at further employment data on Thursday, with the release of Employment Change and the Unemployment Rate.

The Canadian dollar

The Canadian dollar is little changed Tuesday as an absence of any economic data or other domestic drivers leaves it at the mercy of fluctuating trading flows in the market.
The U.S. dollar is at C$1.0908 Tuesday, from C$1.0905 late Monday, according to data provider CQG. A report from BMO Capital Markets in London said the U.S. was weaker against its Canadian counterpart and nearly touched support at C$1.0900 early during the London morning.
"But a material chunk of that weakness in the pair appeared to be in part driven by EUR/CAD downside, particularly with U.S. yields rather well supported," BMO said. "In other words, the extent of isolated USD weakness behind the move in USD/CAD appears to have been rather limited."
There was more activity in the euro/Canadian dollar cross, with the common currency down by about 0.4% against the loonie since late Monday.
BMO said that with very little on the North American data calendars, Canadian dollar players will stay focused on the euro's fluctuations against the Canadian unit. Softness in that pair does look like it is going to make it a struggle for the U.S. dollar to obtain C$1.0950 in the immediate future

Monday, June 9, 2014

AUD/USD

AUD/USD is steady on Monday, as the pair trades in the mid-0.93-range early in the North American session. It’s a quiet start to the week, with no US releases on Monday. RBA Governor Glenn Stevens will address a San Francisco Federal Reserve symposium. Early on Tuesday, we’ll get a look at Australian business confidence, employment and housing data.
In the US, employment numbers were solid late last week. Unemployment Claims and Nonfarm Payrolls, both key indicators, met market expectations and helped the dollar hold its own against the euro. Unemployment Claims came in at 312 thousand, slightly above the estimate of 309 thousand. Nonfarm Employment Change met modest expectations on Friday, adding 217 thousand new jobs. The estimate stood at 214 thousand. The Unemployment Rate stayed pegged at 6.3%, beating the estimate of 6.4%.

Japanese yen

The Japanese yen has edged higher on Monday, as the pair trades in the mid-102 range. On the release front, Japanese Final GDP jumped 1.6% in Q1. Current Account posted a surplus for the first time in eight months. Monday’s highlight is Tertiary Industrial Activity, with the markets bracing for a sharp decline in May. In the US, there are no releases on Monday.
Key Japanese releases continue to impress. Final GDP soared 1.6% in Q1, a huge improvement from the weak gain of 0.2% in Q4. The estimate stood at 1.4%. Current Account also looked sharp, posting a surplus for the first time since September. The indicator came in at 0.13 trillion yen, which was short of the estimate of 0.23 trillion. The strong numbers have reinforced the BOJ’s contention that the improving economy will be able to weather the sales tax hike which took effect in April.