Friday, May 23, 2014

Euro lowest level against the dollar

Euro touches its lowest level against the dollar since Feb. 13. ECB President Draghi sparked the common currency's current slump on May 8 with talk about readiness to act at the central bank's June meeting. But the euro's weakness was set long before that, with the Fed tapering QE all while ECB mulled more easing, says Mansoor Mohi-uddin, head of FX strategy at UBS. "The two year shift in the Fed-ECB growth ratio has now reversed," Mohi-uddin says. "The Fed is steadily tapering its asset purchases while LTRO loan repayments are drawing to a close." He forecasts EUR/USD ending the year at 1.25. Euro down 0.2% at $1.3628.

USD/CHF Daily

 USD/CHF  Daily
13::00GMT - New high today has been marginal at 0.8972 before prices   settled back. Above here the next significant res. is around 0.9000.  Sup. is at 0.8918. N.I.
R4: 0.9038  12 Feb high
R3: 0.9022 * Feb 13 low
R2: 0.9000  figure
R1: 0.8972  today high
S1: 0.8918  Thurs low
S2: 0.8895  Wed low
S3: 0.8879 * 15 May low
S4: 0.8840/60  intraday level
S5: 0.8815  intraday level

Thursday, May 22, 2014

Mexican inflation

Mexican inflation slowed in the first half of May, as a drop in electricity rates and lower fruit and vegetable prices helped pull down the consumer price index.
The CPI fell 0.37% in the first two weeks of the month, in line with expectations, leading the 12-month rate to ease to 3.44% from 3.5% at the end of April, the National Statistics Institute said on Thursday.The application of summertime electricity subsidies in northern cities and lower prices for tomatoes and limes were partially offset by higher prices of gasoline and other foods.

Learning Gaps

Trading the gaps in the stock and forex markets. Keep watching the candle on your charts for buying or selling pressure will make you a better and more profitable trader.  There are also four types of gaps that traders need to recognize.  Knowing what type of gap you are trying to trade will also increase your positive trades in the markets. One of the big mistakes that cost investors and traders to many losses is trading gaps.  The normal thinking is that when price returns to the prior day’s close, the gap has filled. Sometimes this is correct.
Most amateur traders use that point as an signal to enter a trade as they expect the price to reverse from the previous close. As  the trader quickly discovers this is not the real demand or supply zone and they get stopped out.  Experienced traders have learned to trade like professional traders, they will wait for the real demand or supply zone before entering a position. Those who waited for the news and waited for the price would have found themselves trapped out by the initial spike in prices only to then have to chase a violent price reversal straight after. It is very difficult to trade news especially in the forex markets.
Learning Gaps

Wednesday, May 21, 2014

Demand for gold

Demand for gold has dropped in the first quarter of 2014, weighing on the price of the precious metal. On Tuesday, the World Gold Council released a report which found that global demand for gold had dropped in Q1 to its lowest level in four years. Demand for the metal by China, the largest buyer of gold, slipped by 18% in Q1, and other major purchasers such as India also recorded a drop in demand. Gold tends to react to geopolitical events, and the ongoing crisis in Ukraine could continue to cause volatility in gold prices.
In the US, key indicators have been generally strong, and last week ended with encouraging housing numbers. Building Permits jumped to 1.08 million, well above the estimate of 1.01 million. This was the highest level we’ve seen since December 2006. Housing Starts continues to move higher and climbed to 1.07M, compared to the estimate of 0.98M. This marked a five-month high. Meanwhile, UoM Consumer Sentiment dipped to 81.8 points, short of the estimate of 84.7 points.

Japanese yen USD/JPY

The Japanese yen is showing little movement on Wednesday, as USD/JPY trades in the mid-101 range late in the European session. In Japan, the BOJ issued a relatively upbeat policy statement and said it would maintain current monetary policy. The Japanese current account deficit improved, but still fell short of the estimate. In the US, the Federal Reserve will release the minutes of its recent policy meeting.
There were no surprises from the Bank of Japan policy statement on Wednesday. The Bank noted that the economy continues to recover at a moderate pace, and said that monetary policy would not change. The BOJ has been purchasing 60-70 trillion yen/year in asset purchases, and this aggressive monetary stance has raised inflation and growth levels, but has severely hurt the yen, which continues to trade above the 100 level.

Tuesday, May 20, 2014

Losses for the Australian dollar

 Losses for the Australian dollar against major currencies continue into the US session, leading all G-10 movers. Earlier in the day, Reserve Bank of Australia assistant governor Guy Debelle said he expects lower capital inflows from mining, which have been supporting the currency. The New Zealand dollar continues to follow the Aussie lower. The Australian dollar has fallen 0.8% against the greenback, to US$0.9257, and down 0.8% against the yen, to Y93.85. Kiwi down 0.6% against the buck, to US$0.8576, and down 0.7% against the yen, to Y86.93.