dip action is still well contained for now, so those that are still looking to buy dips in the current range pattern environment should look to do so while the 140.92 support level holds. Mkt is not wanting to push the limits today and to the upside 141.90/142.00 is key. Only if that zone is taken out would the setup turn a bit more bullish.
Forex and stock traders are looking for the consistently wrong investor, trader and take the opposite position. This will obviously lead to winning trades for them. All traders have read trading books that point out that increasing volume is good for the continuation of the trend. Many new stock traders will try and fight the trend.
Thursday, April 17, 2014
Wednesday, April 16, 2014
China's weaker GDP
Most common reaction to China's weaker GDP data "appears to be relief that growth has not slowed further," Capital Economics writes, though "the bulk of the monthly data confirm the loss of momentum." Despite the weakening and downside risks, growth is still rapid, the firm notes, and "no evidence that China is at imminent risk of a 'hard landing.'" Capital Economics also says hopes of "substantial policy stimulus are also likely to be disappointed," and as long as the labor market stays healthy, it sees no policy loosening which could "undermine efforts to rein in wasteful borrowing and investment."
Bank of Canada's policy statement
The Bank of Canada's policy statement steps up its emphasis on needing to see a shift to exports and business spending, and away from consumption as Canada's key growth drivers. It says the gradual strengthening in the fundamental drivers of growth and inflation it expects "hinges critically on the projected upturn in exports and investment." The central bank is also still concerned about inflation missing on the downside and how risks associated with household finances "remain elevated."
Manufacturing output
Manufacturing output--the largest component of industrial production--rose 0.5% in March, following a 1.4% gain the month before. The figures show manufacturing is strengthening after unusually cold weather hit many sectors of the economy in December and January. For manufacturers, low temperatures and storms kept workers at home, delayed shipments and affected production.
For the first quarter this year, industrial production moved up at an annual rate of 4.4%, just slightly slower than the prior three months, the Fed said.
Looking ahead, high inventories of manufactured goods could slow production if demand doesn't pick up. Factory stockpiles rose in February from a year earlier, according to a separate Commerce Department report. Factories typically pull back if too many goods have collected on shelves.
Production of long-lasting goods including appliances and furniture boosted the manufacturing gain. However, production of motor vehicles and parts declined 0.8% last month.
For the first quarter this year, industrial production moved up at an annual rate of 4.4%, just slightly slower than the prior three months, the Fed said.
Looking ahead, high inventories of manufactured goods could slow production if demand doesn't pick up. Factory stockpiles rose in February from a year earlier, according to a separate Commerce Department report. Factories typically pull back if too many goods have collected on shelves.
Production of long-lasting goods including appliances and furniture boosted the manufacturing gain. However, production of motor vehicles and parts declined 0.8% last month.
Tuesday, April 15, 2014
World Trade Organization
The World Trade Organization predicts global commerce will grow 5.3 percent next year, an improvement that would bring it back in line with its 1993-2013 historic average.
In its annual report released Monday, the Geneva-based WTO also forecast that world trade will rise by 4.7 percent this year. This is an increase of 0.2 percentage points compared with previous forecasts for 2014.
The figures reflect growing confidence that developed countries have recovered from the economic crisis that caused global trade to slump in 2009.
In its annual report released Monday, the Geneva-based WTO also forecast that world trade will rise by 4.7 percent this year. This is an increase of 0.2 percentage points compared with previous forecasts for 2014.
The figures reflect growing confidence that developed countries have recovered from the economic crisis that caused global trade to slump in 2009.
EUR/JPY hourly chart pattern
EUR/JPY hourly chart pattern is still not offering much towork with here. The key support is 140.00 and only a close below there would create the breakdown confirmation that has eluded this mkt for a while now. While 140.00 holds, the mkt will be expected to make yet another comeback move. Resistance at 141.00/12.
European Central Bank
European Central Bank officials have become vocal about the strength of the exchange rate and how it weighs on euro-zone inflation. Continued low inflation in the euro zone could pose a threat to the ECB's inflation expectations in the medium term and could force the central bank to implement nonstandard measures such as asset purchases.
"While the comments from policy makers have become decidedly more pointed recently, the lack of action by the ECB thus far should ultimately limit the euro's losses. The single currency is unlikely to fall sharply until the threat of policy response from the ECB becomes more imminent," said Omer Esiner, chief market analyst at Commonwealth Foreign Exchange Inc.,
"While the comments from policy makers have become decidedly more pointed recently, the lack of action by the ECB thus far should ultimately limit the euro's losses. The single currency is unlikely to fall sharply until the threat of policy response from the ECB becomes more imminent," said Omer Esiner, chief market analyst at Commonwealth Foreign Exchange Inc.,
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