Saturday, October 27, 2018

commodities may be willing to pay a premium

"When inventories are low, users of commodities may be willing to pay a premium for owning a spot commodity relative to futures prices in order to avoid facing a 'stock out,'" says Geert Rouwenhorst, who has conducted extensive research on commodity prices. "You can only heat your building with physical heating oil, not futures on heating oil.  So when inventories are low, you are willing to pay a premium to own spot heating oil to avoid the risk of running out. This premium is sometimes called the convenience yield, and can lead to a backwardated futures curve." A front-month roll implies that a fund invests in the nearest maturity futures contract of their respective commodity.  Traders need to know that during the month, the fund will automatically sell out of its current contract and buy into the next nearest maturity the front month  in order to avoid delivery, you need to be aware that this can cause some big problems if not done right.  Many of the most popular commodity ETPs utilize a front month rolling strategy, which can lead to big losses for a position. The products that employ this strategy are known as "first generation" products, as they were the early entrants to the market.

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