Thursday, April 30, 2020

EUR/JPY 4/30



The following assumptions that have been made:
- At least 20 pip forecast
- The key level and chart pattern were at most 5 candles apart at time of identification
 



Symbol : EURJPY   

Direction : 
Identified time : 2020-04-30 16:04 BST
Breakout price : 117.123
Forecast price : 117.3801
Forecast pips : 26
Probability : 67.38 %
Pattern : Triangle
Interval : 60 Min

Pattern : Triangle
Interval : 60 Min

Forex chart EUR/CAD 4/30



The following assumptions that have been made:
- At least 20 pip forecast
- The key level and chart pattern were at most 5 candles apart at time of identification
 




Symbol : EURCAD   


Direction :
Identified time : 2020-04-30 15:32 BST
Breakout price : 1.51423
Forecast price : 1.52281
Forecast pips : 86
Probability : 67.89 %
Pattern : Triangle
Interval : 30 Min

Pattern : Falling Wedge
Interval : 30 Min

forex chart EUR/GBP 4/30



The following assumptions that have been made:
- At least 20 pip forecast
- The key level and chart pattern were at most 5 candles apart at time of identification
 



Symbol : EURGBP   

Direction :
Identified time : 2020-04-30 13:05 BST
Breakout price : 0.86833
Forecast price : 0.86599
Forecast pips : 23
Probability : 72.27 %
Pattern : Descending Triangle
Interval : 240 Min

Pattern : Descending Triangle
Interval : 240 Min

Wednesday, April 29, 2020

US dollar weakens 4/29

The US dollar weakens 0.5% against the euro and 0.2% against the yen. The Fed pledges aggressive action as economic distress from coronavirus worsens, sparking selling in the dollar. Investors may also be embracing more risk on some promising Covid-19 drug news from Gilead and more reopening plans in Europe, and they seem to be looking past a dismal 1Q GDP report that showed the economy shrinking 4.8%, its fastest pace since the Great Recession. The S&P gains 2.7% and 10-year Treasury yields inch higher to 0.61%. The WSJ Dollar Index falls 0.6%.

EUR/AUD



The following assumptions that have been made:
- At least 20 pip forecast
- The key level and chart pattern were at most 5 candles apart at time of identification
 




Symbol : EURAUD   


Direction :
Identified time : 2020-04-29 19:04 BST
Breakout price : 1.66463
Forecast price : 1.66813
Forecast pips : 35
Probability : 66.36 %
Pattern : Triangle
Interval : 30 Min

Pattern : Triangle
Interval : 15 Min

Thursday, April 9, 2020

US dollar weakens 4/9

The US dollar weakens 0.7% against the euro and 0.4% against the yen. US stocks rose more than 1% and 10-year Treasury yields rose above 0.72% even as weekly unemployment data showed 6.6 million Americans filed for benefits. The Fed's $2.3 trillion bond buying program along with signs the coronavirus's spread is slowing in hot zones "has imbued financial markets with newfound optimism that the economic impact of the virus will be far less severe than originally thought--prompting investors to migrate out of US dollar denominated safe-haven assets," Cambridge Global Payments. "The trade-weighted US dollar index (DXY)"--off 0.6% today--"has eased off the highs witnessed in mid-March, and could continue to run lower as global financial conditions ease."
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Forex USD/CAD 4/9

Despite the horrid figures in Canada's March jobs report, the C$ strengthened and the yield on the 10-year Government of Canada bond climbed following the release of the data at 8:30 am ET. There are some explanations offered as to why. TD Securities says USD/CAD trading has been complicated by the Federal Reserve announcing--at around the same time as Canadian employment--over $2 trillion in lending programs as well as pending news of a possible oil-production cut from OPEC. "It is clear that the market regime is past the point of shock and awe," the firm says, adding traders might be more focused on the direction of the virus-contagion curve.

Tuesday, April 7, 2020

US stocks 4/8

US stocks turn negative in the final minutes of trading. The Dow had risen more than 900 points this morning on continuing signs the coronavirus pandemic is abating in some of the worst hit areas. New York's Gov. Cuomo says the state is reaching a plateau of daily hospitalizations even as it reported its largest number of deaths in a single day. Spain and Italy see new infections and deaths flatten while Wuhan lifts its travel ban. The Dow falls 0.1% to 22653, the S&P 500 gives up 0.2% to 2659 and the Nasdaq declines 0.3% to 7887. Ten-year Treasury yields climb above 0.7%. Oil prices sink 9.4% on increased inventory.

Forex chart GBP/USD 4/7

The following assumptions that have been made:
- At least 20 pip forecast
- The key level and chart pattern were at most 5 candles apart at time of identification
 



Symbol : GBPUSD   

Direction :
Identified time : 2020-04-07 16:02 BST
Breakout price : 1.23031
Forecast price : 1.22747
Forecast pips : 28
Probability : 69.05 %
Pattern : Rising Wedge
Interval : 15 Min

Pattern : Rising Wedge
Interval : 15 Min

Monday, April 6, 2020

oil markets 4/6

The optimism is spreading to oil markets, where traders are shrugging off the Russia/Saudi spat over the weekend, turning a blind-eye to the apparent reluctance of the US to be part of any deal. and completely ignoring the fact that today’s emergency virtual meeting has been pushed back until at least Thursday.
I know crude is trading a little lower this morning but Brent is still more than 35%  off its lows and WTI 45%. Maybe I’m the one getting carried away but the weekend’s action strikes me as a major setback. It may be being helped by the overall lift markets are seeing as a result of the declining fatalies across Europe but that’s extremely premature for me. Oil is now loooking very shaky below.
WTI Daily Chart