The euro could fall to its Nov. 14 low of $1.0990 in coming days due to a lack
of positive catalysts, ING says. The currency is "now heavily testing the $1.10
support" level despite data Monday showing improved German business confidence
in November, which has "added to signs of a bottoming out" in Europe's largest
economy, Francesco Pesole, FX strategist at ING, says. The Ifo Institute said
Monday that its measure of German business confidence rose to 95.0 this month
from an upwardly revised 94.7 in October. "We suspect this week's agenda does
not offer enough positive euro catalysts to avert a EUR/USD move to the 1.0990
Nov. 14 low
Forex and stock traders are looking for the consistently wrong investor, trader and take the opposite position. This will obviously lead to winning trades for them. All traders have read trading books that point out that increasing volume is good for the continuation of the trend. Many new stock traders will try and fight the trend.
Tuesday, November 26, 2019
Monday, November 25, 2019
CRUDE OIL 11/25
CRUDE OIL prices rose toward the end of last week and West
Texas Intermediate (WTI) touched the highest since September 23 on Friday.
Expectations are still high that OPEC and its allies will extend the current
production caps at the December 5-6 meeting, though doubts exist that deeper
cuts will be announced. Certainly Russia has dragged its heels when considering
cutting production.
China’s apparent crude oil demand rose 7.3% in October from a year earlier to just above 13 million barrels per day (bpd), according to Bloomberg calculations based on data from China’s Customs General Administration. The number of US oil rigs in production fell for a fifth straight week last week and are now at the lowest since end-March 2017.
China’s apparent crude oil demand rose 7.3% in October from a year earlier to just above 13 million barrels per day (bpd), according to Bloomberg calculations based on data from China’s Customs General Administration. The number of US oil rigs in production fell for a fifth straight week last week and are now at the lowest since end-March 2017.
Sterling 11/25
Sterling would remain stuck in a range between $1.25 and $1.30 under a hung
parliament following the December 12 U.K. general election until some political
clarity emerges, UBS Global Wealth Management says. "If the election results in
a hung parliament, we expect Article 50 will be extended again, followed by a
referendum," UBS analysts say in a note. While the Conservatives are leading
opinion polls ahead of the election, these should "always be taken not with a
grain of salt, but a truck-load," they say. The first past-the-post
constituency-based system in the U.K. "doesn't lend itself well to making
predictions based on national vote shares." GBP/USD rises 0.3% to 1.2871.(
Sunday, November 24, 2019
Major Pairs 11/24
USD/JPY (last 108.72): The pair, as shown on a daily chart, has managed to avoid posting a deeper consolidation. Currently it is trading at levels around the ascending 20-day moving average while being supported by the 50-day moving average (also positively sloped). Key support remains at 108.00. Unless this level is breached, the pair stands chances of revisiting 109.50 and 110.65 on the upside. Alternatively, below 108.00, expect a further decline toward 107.00 on the downside.
EUR/USD (last 1.1021): The pair retreated after touching the declining 20-day moving average. Besides, the bearish cross between 20-day and 50-day moving averages has been identified. The relative strength index has struck against its neutrality level at 50 and is turning downward. Therefore, as long as 1.1090 is not surpassed, expect a drop with targets at 1.0990 and 1.0940 in extension. Alternatively, breaking above 1.1090 would bring another up leg with 1.1185 and 1.1280 as targets.
EUR/USD
1st support - 1.0990 (moderate)
1st resistance - 1.1090 (major)
2nd support - 1.0940 (moderate)
2nd resistance - 1.1185 (major)
GBP/USD
1st support - 1.2760 (major)
1st resistance - 1.3000 (major)
2nd support - 1.2575 (major)
2nd resistance - 1.3175 (major)
GBP/USD (last 1.2848): The pair remains trading within a consolidation range after a recent rally. Currently, support is provided by the ascending 50-day moving average, while the relative strength index stays above the neutrality level of 50, signaling that the bullish bias persists. As long as the key support at 1.2760 holds, the pair should advance to 1.3000 and 1.3175. Alternatively, a break below 1.2760 would trigger a pull-back to 1.2575.
EUR/USD (last 1.1021): The pair retreated after touching the declining 20-day moving average. Besides, the bearish cross between 20-day and 50-day moving averages has been identified. The relative strength index has struck against its neutrality level at 50 and is turning downward. Therefore, as long as 1.1090 is not surpassed, expect a drop with targets at 1.0990 and 1.0940 in extension. Alternatively, breaking above 1.1090 would bring another up leg with 1.1185 and 1.1280 as targets.
EUR/USD
1st support - 1.0990 (moderate)
1st resistance - 1.1090 (major)
2nd support - 1.0940 (moderate)
2nd resistance - 1.1185 (major)
GBP/USD
1st support - 1.2760 (major)
1st resistance - 1.3000 (major)
2nd support - 1.2575 (major)
2nd resistance - 1.3175 (major)
GBP/USD (last 1.2848): The pair remains trading within a consolidation range after a recent rally. Currently, support is provided by the ascending 50-day moving average, while the relative strength index stays above the neutrality level of 50, signaling that the bullish bias persists. As long as the key support at 1.2760 holds, the pair should advance to 1.3000 and 1.3175. Alternatively, a break below 1.2760 would trigger a pull-back to 1.2575.
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Friday, November 22, 2019
Sterling falls 11/22
Sterling falls after IHS Markit's first "flash" version of its U.K. purchasing
managers' surveys showed a contraction in both services and manufacturing
activity in November. The manufacturing purchasing mangers' index fell to 48.3
in November from 49.6 in October, with a reading below 50 indicating a
contraction. The services PMI dropped to a 40-month low of 48.6 from 50.0, below
expectations for an unchanged reading. "With an upcoming general election adding
to Brexit-related uncertainty about the outlook, it's no surprise to see U.K.
businesses reporting falling output and orders in November," Markit's Chris
Williamson says. GBP/USD is last down 0.3% at 1.2874, down from 1.2899
beforehand. EUR/GBP is last up 0.3% at 0.8593, from 0.8571 beforehand.(
How To Trade Forex Using Support and Resistance LevelsThursday, November 21, 2019
Gold 11/21
Gold traders are in limbo amid trade uncertainty. The risks of a
collapse for a phase-one trade deal are rising and gold can’t muster up a
rally. A firm bottom was put in place last week for gold, but traders are
largely skeptical that pullback has run its course. If gold does not recapture
the $1485 an ounce level by the end of the week, we could sellers take
control.
Wednesday, November 20, 2019
The euro
The euro could rise to $1.19 by the end of 2020, from just $1.1056 currently, as
the dollar is likely to weaken, UBS Global Wealth Management says. "In recent
years, high interest rates, risk aversion stemming from the downturn in global
trade and support from earnings repatriation have supported the dollar," UBS
analysts say in their year-ahead outlook.
British pound
British pound remains within a bearish channel and is capped by its declining
50-period moving average on 30-minute chart, currently at $1.2929. Moreover, the
14-period RSI is standing within its selling area between 50 and 30, confirming
the bearish bias. As a consequence, below horizontal resistance at $1.2930,
further weakness is expected toward previous overlap at $1.2895 and toward
strong horizontal support at $1.2870 in extension. A third target is set at
$1.2850.
Tuesday, November 19, 2019
Trade Alerts
AUD/JPY 11/19
Symbol : AUDJPY | ||
Direction : Identified time : 2019-11-20 01:31 GMT Breakout price : 73.812 Forecast price : 73.59 Forecast pips : 22 Probability : 60.12 % | ||||
|
outlook for EUR/USD 11/19
The euro is likely to strengthen against the dollar if the eurozone economy
rebounds faster than the U.S., J.P. Morgan says. The outlook for EUR/USD depends
on the "growth differential between the U.S. and Europe along with more clarity
on fiscal spending and on the political front," Thushka Maharaj, strategist at
J.P. Morgan, says. Increased spending by euro-area governments that "supports
long-term economic growth" of the eurozone would be positive for the euro, she
says. For now the euro "remains range-bound" around $1.10 due to "opposing
forces" such as the Federal Reserve cutting rates, which means less support for
dollar, counteracted by weak growth outside of the U.S. hurting demand for the
safe-haven currency. EUR/USD falls 0.1% to 1.1066.
Monday, November 18, 2019
Gold 11/18
Gold still looks vulnerable as it seems very likely we will see the US and
China finally agree upon the final parts of a phase-one deal. With Brexit and
the trade war about to deliver potentially two big risk-on scenarios, gold
selling could get ugly if we see a breach of last week’ low. Since the end of
the summer, gold was ready for a pullback, not the beginning of a bearish
trend.
GBP/USD 11/18
Sterling rises to its highest level against the euro in six months after U.K.
Prime Minister Boris Johnson said all candidates from his Conservative Party for
the Dec. 12 general election have committed to back his Brexit deal and as
opinion polls showed increased support for his party. The U.K. would still need
to negotiate a trade deal with the European Union if lawmakers vote for
Johnson's withdrawal agreement but for now "any clarity on what will happen
seems to be good for the pound short-term, even if in the long run it's bad for
the country," says Marshall Gittler at ACLS Global. EUR/GBP falls 0.4% to a low
of 0.8534, according to FactSet. GBP/USD rises 0.5% to a two-week high of
1.2962.
Friday, November 15, 2019
4.76 billion Canadian dollars 11/15
Foreigners acquired a net 4.76 billion Canadian dollars ($3.59 billion) in
Canadian securities in September, Statistics Canada said Friday. In the previous
month, non-residents bought a net C$4.62 billion in Canadian securities, revised
down slightly from an earlier estimate.
Meanwhile, Canadian investors sold a net C$2.39 billion in foreign securities in September, led by a decline in U.S. securities holdings.
As a result, international transactions in securities generated a net inflow of funds in the Canadian economy in September of C$7.16 billion.
Meanwhile, Canadian investors sold a net C$2.39 billion in foreign securities in September, led by a decline in U.S. securities holdings.
As a result, international transactions in securities generated a net inflow of funds in the Canadian economy in September of C$7.16 billion.
Wednesday, November 13, 2019
EUR/AUD 11/13
The following assumptions that have been made: - At least 20 pip forecast - The key level and chart pattern were at most 5 candles apart at time of identification | ||
Symbol : EURAUD | ||
Direction : Identified time : 2019-11-14 02:00 GMT Breakout price : 1.61705 Forecast price : 1.62018 Forecast pips : 31 Probability : 61.69 % | ||
|
Tuesday, November 12, 2019
US dollar 11/12
The US dollar edges higher as investors looked ahead to President Trump's speech
at the Economic Club of New York where he is expected to discuss trade issues.
Trump could confirm a delay on tariffs on European autos and progress on talks
with China, analysts said. The dollar has tended to strengthen during periods
where trade tensions have been elevated and global growth has slowed. The WSJ
Dollar Index, which measures the US currency against a basket of 16 others, rose
less than 0.1% to a recent 91.09.
Sunday, November 10, 2019
MAJOR PAIRS 11/10
EUR/USD 1st support - 1.0940 (major) 1st resistance - 1.1120 (major) 2nd support - 1.0870 (major) 2nd resistance - 1.1185 (major)
EUR/USD (last 1.1019): The pair has closed below the key support at 1.1035 turning the short-term outlook bearish. In fact, it has formed a bearish pattern of "double tops" while striking the lower Bollinger band calling for further downside. A pull-back to the first downside target at 1.0940 would open a path toward 1.0870. Only a return to the key resistance at 1.1120 would trigger a rebound to 1.1185 on the upside.
AUD/USD 1st support - 0.6795 (major) 1st resistance - 0.6930 (major) 2nd support - 0.6720 (major) 2nd resistance - 0.6975 (major)
AUD/USD (last 0.6857): The pair has retreated from a recent high of 0.6929 while trading at levels around the 20-day moving average. Short-term bullishness is still maintained by the 50-day moving average. In case the pair emerges to the upside after completing the current consolidation phase, it should revisit 0.6930 and 0.6975 on the upside. However, a break below the key support at 0.6795 (around the 50-day moving average) would call for a further decline toward 0.6720 on the downside.
NZD/USD 1st support - 0.6275 (major) 1st resistance - 0.6445 (major) 2nd support - 0.6200 (major) 2nd resistance - 0.6540 (moderate)
NZD/USD (last 0.6329): The pair maintains a bullish bias above the key support at 0.6275. In fact, it has stabilized after reaching a rising trend line drawn from October, and support is also provided by the 50-day moving average. Unless the key support at 0.6275 is violated, the pair should proceed to 0.6445 and 0.6540 on the upside. Alternatively, a break below 0.6275 would trigger a decline to 0.6200.
GBP/USD 1st support - 1.2575 (major) 1st resistance - 1.3000 (major) 2nd support - 1.2400 (moderate) 2nd resistance - 1.3175 (moderate)
GBP/USD (last 1.2790): The pair remains on the upside despite a modest pull-back. Currently, it is trading at levels above the ascending 50-day moving average, while the relative strength index stays above the neutrality level of 50, signaling a bullish bias. As long as the key support at 1.2575 holds, the pair should target 1.3000 and 1.3175 on the upside. Alternatively, below 1.2575, expect a return to 1.2400 on the downside.
British pound 11/10
The British pound is up more than 6% from recent multiyear lows, while a
rebound in China's yuan has lifted a broad range of currencies. Emerging-market
equities have also bounced back from a steep selloff earlier in the year, and a
rise in oil is leading a rally in commodities that has buoyed everything from
copper to coffee.
Driving the gains are signs of better-than-expected outcomes to several issues that have weighed on markets for most of the year. The U.S. and China are approaching an initial accord on trade; the world's biggest central banks have slashed interest rates to curtail a manufacturing slowdown; and the odds of a disorderly U.K. exit from the European Union are declining.
Coupled with a climb in U.S. shares that has pushed major indexes to fresh highs, the moves highlight investors' sudden optimism after months of caution.
Driving the gains are signs of better-than-expected outcomes to several issues that have weighed on markets for most of the year. The U.S. and China are approaching an initial accord on trade; the world's biggest central banks have slashed interest rates to curtail a manufacturing slowdown; and the odds of a disorderly U.K. exit from the European Union are declining.
Coupled with a climb in U.S. shares that has pushed major indexes to fresh highs, the moves highlight investors' sudden optimism after months of caution.
Friday, November 8, 2019
EUR/USD 11/8
The euro should drift lower against the dollar as uncertainty over a U.S.-China
trade deal remains high and global economic growth is subdued, says Gaetan
Peroux at UBS. Eurozone retail sales data for September and final purchasing
managers' surveys for October "generally surprised to the upside" but have
"inspired little belief that a euro rebound is around the corner," he says.
"Still, delicate green economic shoots are visible; if they continue to sprout,
EUR/USD may not be too far from the bottom." EUR/USD is last down 0.2% at
1.1021.
French industrial production
France isn't insulated from the global trade and industrial weakness, says
Oxford Economics following weak French industrial production and trade data in
3Q. French industrial production rose 0.3% in September, figures from statistics
showed Friday, reversing a 0.9 decline in the previous month. But over the third
quarter, French production declined 1.2% from the previous quarter, on par with
the losses seen in Germany. Nevertheless, French payrolls rose 0.3% in the
period, which according to Oxford Economics shows that the country's domestic
demand remains even more resilient than in Germany.
Thursday, November 7, 2019
FX market 11/7
Tuesday, November 5, 2019
Gold 11/5
Gold has stumbled once again just as it looked poised to test its
October highs around $1,520, leaving us in consolidation mode. Still, pressures
are building from below so just because the breakout is taking its time, it
still looks increasingly likely to come to the upside.
A firmer dollar at the start of the week naturally didn’t help matters and took some of the wind out of gold’s sails. The greenback has been softer over the last month though as sentiment and trade headlines have improved.
A firmer dollar at the start of the week naturally didn’t help matters and took some of the wind out of gold’s sails. The greenback has been softer over the last month though as sentiment and trade headlines have improved.
Monday, November 4, 2019
profit-taking in sterling
The Bank of England could trigger profit-taking in sterling if it hints at
cutting interest rates Thursday, FXTM says. The BOE is expected to keep its base
rate unchanged at 0.75%, according to a WSJ poll of analysts, so the market's
focus is on whether Governor Mark Carney provides any clues on future changes at
a press conference after the central bank releases its rate decision, meeting
minutes and latest economic forecasts. "Any signs of the BOE indicating an
easing of policy will likely lead to profit taking in the pound which has
rallied more than 700 pips since October 10 [when GBP/USD began the day just
above 1.22]," Hussein Sayed at FXTM says. GBP/USD is last down 0.2% to 1.2916
and EUR/GBP is rises 0.1% to 0.8635.
The GBP/USD
The pound should range between $1.26 and $1.32 until there is clarity on the
outcome of the U.K. general election on Dec. 12, UBS analysts say in a note.
"The U.K. is facing what feels like the most unpredictable election in living
memory," the analysts say. "As things stand, public opinion points to [U.K.
Prime Minister] Boris Johnson's election gamble paying off, but as we learned in
2017, much can change as the campaign unfolds." In the meantime, UBS retains its
"bullish" medium- to long-term view on the GBP/USD as no-deal Brexit risk is
"out of focus for the time being." The GBP/USD falls 0.2% to 1.2912.
The dollar was buffeted by US data
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