Wednesday, August 31, 2016

. USD/ZAR rises more than 1%

 The rand slides to its lowest level in nearly eight weeks against the U.S. dollar as Bloomberg reports that Futuregrowth, Africa's biggest private fixed-income money manager, will stop lending money to six of South Africa's largest state companies over concerns about how they are run. This comes amid increasing political uncertainty in the country, with finance minister Pravin Gordhan currently under investigation over possible corruption. USD/ZAR rises more than 1% to hit 14.7155, the rand's weakest level since July 8.

GBP/USD posted gains but has then retracted on Wednesday

GBP/USD posted gains but has then retracted on Wednesday, as the pair trades slightly below the 1.31 line. On the release front, British GfK Consumer Confidence came in at -7 points, within expectations. In the US, we’ll get a look at two key indicators – ADP Nonfarm Employment Change and Pending Home Sales. On Thursday, the US releases unemployment claims and the ISM Manufacturing PMI. The UK will publish Manufacturing PMI.
GBP/USD Technical
S1 S2 S1 R1 R2 R3
1.2849 1.2938 1.3064 1.3142 1.3219 1.3327
•GBP/USD posted slight gains in the Asian and European sessions. The pair has posted considerable losses in North American trade
•1.3064 is providing support
•1.3142 has some breathing room in resistance following considerable losses in the North American session
Further levels in both directions:
•Below: 1.3064, 1.2938 and 1.2849
•Above: 1.3142, 1.3219, 1.3327 and 1.3480
•Current range: 1.3064 to 1.3142
GBP/USD ratio has posted small gains on Wednesday. Long positions have a majority (55%), indicative of trader bias towards GBP/USD breaking out and moving upwards.

Tuesday, August 30, 2016

U.K. purchasing managers' indexes for August

 U.K. purchasing managers' indexes for August will be key indicators for sterling, starting with the manufacturing index on Thursday, followed by construction Friday and services Monday. After very weak readings for July following the U.K. vote to leave the EU, the market is expecting a modest rebound in August. CIBC strategist Jeremy Stretch says he would look to sell GBP/USD rallies if the rebound should "prove less robust than expected," looking for a test of $1.30 once $1.3020/25 is breached. GBP/USD trades firmer for now, up 0.1% at $1.3119.

GBP/USD has recorded small losses on Tuesday

GBP/USD has recorded small losses on Tuesday, as the pair trades slightly below the 1.31 level. On the release front, British Net Lending to Individuals dropped to GBP 3.8 billion, well short of the forecast. Later in the day, GfK Consumer Confidence is expected to come in at -8 points. In the US, today’s highlight is CB Consumer Confidence. The indicator is expected to remain steady, with a forecast of 97.2 points. On Wednesday, the US will release two key events – ADP Nonfarm Employment Change and Pending Home Sales.
•GBP/USD posted slight gains in the Asian session and is flat in European trade
•1.3064 was tested earlier in support and could break in the North American session
•There is resistance at 1.3142
Further levels in both directions:
•Below: 1.3064, 1.2938 and 1.2849
•Above: 1.3142, 1.3219, 1.3327 and 1.3480
•Current range: 1.3064 to 1.3142
GBP/USD ratio is showing little change on Tuesday, consistent with the lack of movement from GBP/USD. Long positions have a small majority (52%), indicative of trader bias towards GBP/USD moving reversing directions and moving upwards.

Long Yen trades a problem

Long Yen trades a problem
For sometime the FX market has been overly long yen positions for a number of reasons, source of funding for carry trades and for risk aversion purposes. With the BoJ’s back against the wall, the long yen trade looked appealing.
A ‘hawkish’ Fed and a ‘dovish’ Kuroda at last weekend’s Jackson Hole has been pressurizing these ‘weaker’ longs (¥102.33). Overnight, the yen ‘bear’ got further support from PM Abe’s advisor Hamada – he called on the Finance Ministry to “courageously” intervene in FX markets to stem the yen’s appreciation, accusing the MOF of lost credibility on exchange rate. The response is that cabinet is closely watching FX markets and prepared to respond appropriately.
Currently, the market consensus is leaning towards the Bank of Japan (BoJ) favoring deeper negative interest rates at next months monetary policy meeting (September 20).
•USD/JPY has posted slight gains in the Asian and European sessions
•102.36 was tested in resistance earlier and is a weak line
•101.20 is providing support
•Current range:101.20 to 102.36
Further levels in both directions:
•Below: 101.20, 99.71, 98.95 and 97.78
• Above: 102.36, 103.73 and 104.99
USD/JPY ratio is showing little movement on Tuesday. Currently, long positions have a strong majority (69%), indicative of trader bias towards USD/JPY continuing to move to higher ground.