Wednesday, September 3, 2014

USD/JPY

USD/JPY continues to lose ground on Wednesday, as the pair trades at the 105 line late in the European session. In the US, there are no major US events on the calendar. There are no Japanese releases on Wednesday, but the markets will be keeping a close eye on the Bank of Japan, as the central bank releases its monetary policy statement early Thursday.
Recent Japanese numbers have been steady, so the markets are not expecting any surprises from upcoming BOJ minutes. July’s inflation numbers were strong and met expectations, as taming deflation has become one of the government’s major economic success stories. Capital Spending hit 3.0% in August, well short of the forecast of 3.8%. Average Cash Earnings, which measures employment income, shot up 2.6% last month, crushing the estimate of 0.9%.
Despite the fact that recent Japanese data has been solid, the yen has been unable to hold its ground against the dollar, thanks to excellent US numbers. On Tuesday, ISM Manufacturing PMI impressed the markets, climbing to 59.0 points, its best showing since April 2011. The index easily beat the estimate of 57.0 points. The strong showing follows an unexpectedly strong GDP, which hit 4.2%. With the US economy moving forward at a fast clip, the US dollar has taken full advantage and has made broad gains this week against its major rivals.

Office for National Statistics

The Office for National Statistics has revised up its estimates for UK Gross Domestic Product during and after the recession.
The change comes after estimates of proceeds from charities, illegal drugs, and prostitution were included in the official figures for the first time.
Growth has been revised up by 0.1 percentage points per year between 1997 and 2012.
The ONS also suggested the recession ended in the third quarter of 2013. Previously it had suggested the recession carried on until the second quarter of 2014.The changes to the way the ONS calculates GDP show that the economy shrank by up to 6% in the recession, rather than the previous “peak-to-trough” estimate of 7.2%.The revisions for 1997 to 2012 show that the size of the economy was on average 4% – or 50bn – larger than previously thought each year.

Tuesday, August 26, 2014

USD/JPY Gold held losses

Gold held losses near a two-month low on speculation that the U.S. Federal Reserve will raise borrowing costs next year, strengthening the dollar and damping demand for an alternative investment. Bullion for immediate delivery fell as much as 0.2 percent to $1,274.82 an ounce, and traded at $1,276.25 at 8:18 a.m. in Singapore, according to Bloomberg generic pricing. The metal on Aug. 21 dropped to $1,273.14, the lowest level since June 18, as the minutes of the Feds last meeting signaled that policy makers may raise interest rates sooner than anticipated.

USD/JPY continues to trade at high levels on Tuesday, with the pair trading just below the 104 line. In Japan, the Services Producer Price Index posted an impressive 3.7% gain, matching the forecast. Over in the US, Core Durable Goods declined by 0.8%, but Durable Goods Orders set a monthly record with a huge jump of 22%.

When it comes to forex trading these days everyone should know the rules by now: the central banks dictate market direction. Last week’s Economic Symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyo., will be regarded as a watershed moment for the eurozone’s survival. Despite Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen’s “neutral or less dovish” tone, it was “super” Mario Draghi’s assertion that the European Central Bank (ECB) stands ready to act again that has quickened the pulse of capital markets.

 USD/CHF  Daily
13::15GMT - Though the mkt. broke the 0.9139 sup., downside was limited to 0.9135 before recovery back to the day high at 0.9164. Clearance  of the latter should be s/term positive and we could then see a retest of Mon's high at 0.9178. Sup. is at  0.9135.N.I.

Monday, August 25, 2014

How to Trade Gann Theory

 Making stock or Forex trades using Gann theory. This is a popular style of analysis that looks at patterns and repeatable price action based on time and is something traders need to learn. Many traders have decided it best to examine Gann Theory a bit further and learn how to trade with it. It takes time to learn but traders who learn how to use it make more winning trades.
There are three trends applicable to any timeframe which you are analyzing: Minor, Intermediate and Major. That also means that there are three types of swing highs and lows that correspond with these trends. Using the Gann swing highs and swing lows we can labeled Gann Swings are actually intermediate swings. In Gann trend analysis, a downtrend occurs when price breaks a swing bottom. If price moves downward in a defined uptrend but does not break a swing bottom, it is called a correction and the trader has no need to exit their long. A break of a swing bottom would constitute an exit signal.

USD/JPY Daily


13::20 GMT - Step back this am. is a bullish test of Fri value; it  follows Fri.'s spike test of 103.50 which easily retained the 103~ breakout. With last week's rise, the USD has moved decisively out of the YTD apex- now a hold above 104.10/ the start-Aprhighs confirms & points further up (to 105.45/ the YTD high.)