Major currencies

The major currencies are in a holding pattern on Wednesday, ahead of today’s US Federal Reserve’s policy statement. USD/JPY is no exception, trading at the low-102 range. In economic news, the Bank of  Japan released its monetary policy meeting minutes. Japanese Current Account remained steady in May, easily beating the estimate. In the US, the Fed is in the spotlight, with a policy statement and a follow-up press conference. There are no Japanese releases on Wednesday.
All eyes are on the Federal Reserve on Wednesday, as the US central bank will release a policy statement later in the day. The Fed is expected to trim its QE program by another $10 billion, which would reduce the asset purchase scheme to $35 billion/month. The big question is when the Fed will raise interest rates, but Fed chair Janet Yellen is unlikely to shed much light on that issue. If, as expected, QE is wound up in 2014, we could see a rate hike in the first half of 2015. However, cuts to QE are dependent on the health of the US economy, which continues to move in the right direction, despite some bumps in the road.

GBP/JPY Daily,, EUR/USD Daily

 GBP/JPY  Daily
14::15 GMT - Another balanced range day was been trading into this pm. but GBP's just now started to run at the recent 173.35 high to        threaten  breakout at both the Jan-May overhead trend and at previous (Jan-May) highs, looking for a significant breakout.  In that event  the obvious target is the 174.85 YTD high. Cut back  through 172.50 today/Wed. cancels.
 EUR/USD   Daily
14::30GMT - Though there has not been much follow through s/term,  balance of risk has probably switched to the downside with the break  of 1.3540. Lower reference area comes at recent lows at 1.3502/10 then 1.3475/85.  Res. is  at 1.3580/87

Australian dollar

The Australian dollar has posted losses on Tuesday, as the pair trades in the low-0.93 range early in the North American session. On the release front, the RBA released the minutes of its last policy meeting, and New Motor Vehicle Sales posted a modest gain of 0.3%. In the US, Building Permits softened in May but CPI releases beat their estimates.
The news out of the US was mixed on Tuesday. Building Permits dropped to 0.99M, well below the estimate of 1.07M. On the inflation front, CPI moved up modestly, posting a gain of 0.3%. This was the strongest gain we’ve seen since January 2013. CPI followed suit, climbing to an eleven-month high. The index rose to 0.4%, beating the estimate of 0.2%. Meanwhile, Building Permits dropped sharply to o.99M, well below the estimate of 1.07M.

USD/CHF Daily 6/19

USD/CHF  Daily 6/19
13::30 GMT - Mkt. has still been unable to break higher and prices havedropped back last several hours. Initial sup. is still at Fri's low   at 0.8956 and the mkt. should rebase around there. Lower sups. are at 0.8951 then 0.8935/40. Res. is at today's high at  0.9013.N.I.

The Japanese yen has edged lower on Monday, as the pair trades in the high-101 range late in the European session. It’s a quiet schedule on Monday, with no major releases. In Japan, today’s sole event is the BOJ Monthly Report. In the US, there was good news as the Empire State Manufacturing Index posted another strong reading. Capacity Utilization Rate and Industrial Production met expectations. There were no surprises from the BOJ, which released a policy statement on Friday. The central bank said expansion of the monetary base would continue at its current level of JPY 60-70 trillion per year. This follows remarks from BOJ Governor Haruhiko Kuroda last week, who noted that the easing measures have led to the economy moving in the right direction. However, the monetary moves have hurt the yen, which continues to trade at very high levels against the dollar, and this trend is likely to continue.

Gold is firm

Gold is firm as we start the new trading week. The spot price stands at $1280.21 per ounce in Monday’s European session. The precious metal had a strong week, gaining about 2.9% against the US dollar, as fighting continues between insurgents and government forces in Iraq. On the release front, today’s highlight is Empire State Manufacturing Index. The markets are expecting another strong reading. On Friday, US key numbers were weak, as PPI and UoM Consumer Sentiment both softened in May.
In Iraq, militants linked to al-Qaeda continue to progress towards the capital of Baghdad after capturing key cities on the weekend. The insurgents have seized control of the northern oil city of Kirkuk, which could hamper oil production and exports from Iraq.  Gold prices have reached three-week highs, as concerned investors continue to snap up gold, which is considered a hedge during periods of geopolitical instability.