Friday, November 2, 2018

WSJ Dollar Index

The WSJ Dollar Index, which tracks the dollar against a basket of 16 currencies, was down 0.2% on Friday.
The British pound, meanwhile, gained 0.2% against the dollar to $1.303, its second session of gains amid hopes for progress in Brexit negotiations.
"The Bank of England's statements on Thursday indicated that a Brexit transition deal with the EU could promise upside to its economic projections and make rate hikes likelier," Daniel Trum, a strategist at UBS, wrote in a note to clients. "Indeed, the U.K. economy would justify them already were it not for the Brexit uncertainty."
News from China also helped lift Asian markets, according to some analysts, after Mr. Xi met with Chinese business leaders this week. He pledged to reduce their tax burdens and offered financial support to private companies, according to the official Xinhua News Agency.
Beyond the trade dispute, some market tensions have eased in recent days following a series of steady earnings announcements and renewed hope that the U.S. economy isn't on the verge of a downturn.
"The economic cycle is OK and the selloff in the equities market has meant the valuations are very reasonable," said William Dinning, head of investment strategy and communication at Waverton Investment Management.
"I don't think we have any sign of a recession in the U.S. -- there may be a bit of a slowdown," he added.
Investors were also positioning ahead of October employment data expected Friday, with many anticipating that the U.S. Federal Reserve will tighten monetary policy more quickly if inflationary pressures build.
A Wall Street Journal survey of economists forecast the Labor Department will report that 188,000 jobs were added over the month, while unemployment held at 3.7%.
Investors were watching the U.S. technology sector in particular after Apple posted mixed results following the closing bell on Thursday.
Geoff Yu, head of the U.K. Investment Office at UBS Wealth Management, said last month's selloff may have been caused by investment in technology groups ramping up particularly steeply in recent months.
The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield drifted up to 3.172%, compared with 3.144% on Thursday. Yields move inversely to prices.
In commodities, Brent crude, the global benchmark, gained 0.3% to $73.14 a barrel. Gold fell 0.1% to $1,237.20 an ounce.

Wednesday, October 31, 2018

Facebook (FB)

Facebook (FB) – Getting Likes –The social media giant reported lower than expected revenue for the third quarter and warned it was in the early stages of a transformation in its core businesses that will lead to slower growth and higher costs in the short term.  All in all, the results and guidance were well received by investors, with many fearing worse results.  In the pre-market , FB is trading 6% higher near $155 per share.

Tuesday, October 30, 2018

Coka Cola Co. (KO)

Coka Cola Co. (KO) –Bubbling! –The  Atlanta-based company posted a $1.88 Billion profit for the 3rd quarter as diet soda and a healthier alternative drinks helped to exceed eps estimates. Shares were indicating a modest jump higher pre-market with a 1.5% lift over the past 12 months. The company has been little phased with the recent market volatility likely due to its defensive nature. Management has re-stated that they have no intentions of entering the cannabis space in the latest fad with many competing beverage producers.  

signals to buy USD against sterling

 RBC's month-end hedging model is sending "strong" signals to buy USD against sterling, the Australian dollar, the Norwegian krone and the Canadian dollar. Among those four currencies, dollar strength is for now only evident against sterling, which hit a 10-week low of 1.2756 against the dollar earlier in the session, according to FactSet. The Australian dollar trades up 0.4% against the U.S. dollar at 0.7086, while the U.S. currency is slightly lower against the Canadian dollar, and flat against the Norwegian krone. Meanwhile, EUR/USD is 0.1% lower at 1.1358, helping the DXY dollar index rise 0.2%.

Monday, October 29, 2018

Facebook (FB)

Earnings season will continue to roll on this week, with FAANG members, Facebook (FB) and Apple (AAPL) reporting.  On Friday, energy giants, Chevron (CVX) and Exxon Mobil (XOM) report before the market open.  The recent market volatility has had an effect on what the market feels the probability that the Fed may “pause” on interest rate hikes.  The chance of a December hike is now 71%, and last Monday markets were implying 80%.

Saturday, October 27, 2018

commodities may be willing to pay a premium

"When inventories are low, users of commodities may be willing to pay a premium for owning a spot commodity relative to futures prices in order to avoid facing a 'stock out,'" says Geert Rouwenhorst, who has conducted extensive research on commodity prices. "You can only heat your building with physical heating oil, not futures on heating oil.  So when inventories are low, you are willing to pay a premium to own spot heating oil to avoid the risk of running out. This premium is sometimes called the convenience yield, and can lead to a backwardated futures curve." A front-month roll implies that a fund invests in the nearest maturity futures contract of their respective commodity.  Traders need to know that during the month, the fund will automatically sell out of its current contract and buy into the next nearest maturity the front month  in order to avoid delivery, you need to be aware that this can cause some big problems if not done right.  Many of the most popular commodity ETPs utilize a front month rolling strategy, which can lead to big losses for a position. The products that employ this strategy are known as "first generation" products, as they were the early entrants to the market.

Friday, October 26, 2018

Index (VIX) now firmly creeping above $26.5

The 10 year yield has reversed course to its lowest level in 3 weeks near 3.08% with renewed buying interest garnered in light of the deepening equity route. Gold Futures (/GC) are also showing more signs of life at $1236 after inching back within highs not seen since July thanks to the Volatility Index (VIX) now firmly creeping above $26.5. Oil Futures (/CL) are staging for a 3rd weekly decline ahead of a routine rig count with crude back below $67 a barrel over concerns of demand waning should the global economic engine begin to slow further.
Economic news becomes ever more vital with the latest reveal of GDP coming in at 3.5% which was above its forecast of 3.3% to bring some much needed relief to overnight lows. Consumer Confidence will also be on display later this morning with a reading near 99 expected. Europe will be looking for any real direction from a speech from President Draghi momentarily as trouble around both Italy and Brexit are putting a severe strain on any possibility of growth in the region. Major indexes in the Eurozone are all showing daily losses in excess of 1% to add to its worst combined month since August of 2015 after rates were left unchanged due to unremitting stagnancy. Asia has fared slightly better overnight with a $30 billion currency swap agreement between China and Japan luring in some buyers with bilateral cooperation.