Thursday, October 5, 2017

The Labor Department

The number of claims drawn by workers longer than a week rose 2,000 to 1.938 million in the week ended Sept. 23. Data on continuing claims are released with a one-week lag.
The Labor Department on Friday will release its September jobs report, which could also show hurricane-related distortions. Economists have predicted a modest 80,000 new nonfarm jobs and an unemployment rate steady at 4.4%. Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands aren't counted in national employment data, though the storm-battered territories were included in Thursday's jobless-claims figures.

Wednesday, October 4, 2017

EUR/USD to rise to 1.1820

EUR/USD to rise to 1.1820 in the next 24 hours, potentially boosted by the European Central Bank minutes, which are due for release on Thursday. "ECB-watchers will be waiting for the minutes of the ECB Sep 7th meeting ... for signs as to what the ECB tapering plans may be on October 26th," it says, adding: "We slightly favour EUR/USD climbing back to the 1.1820 area over the next 24 hours." The ECB is expected to reduce the EUR60billion monthly total of bond purchases, but the question is by how much and when. The market is also looking at whether the central bank will set a deadline for its quantitative easing program. EUR/USD last up 0.2% at 1.1766.

Tuesday, October 3, 2017

Federal Reserve governor

Federal Reserve governor Jerome Powell and Commodity Futures Trading Commission Chairman J. Christopher Giancarlo, say they are confident regulators can come to an agreement on changing the Volcker rule ban on certain types of bank trading in the coming months. "We are going to be able to get to a five-agency rule on Volcker that is significantly less burdensome, that is faithful to the intent of Congress," Powell says. "But I'm not going to tell you that its going to be quick or easy."

Monday, October 2, 2017

The British pound has recorded considerable losses

The British pound has recorded considerable losses in the Monday session. In North American trade, GBP/USD is trading at 1.3267, down 0.97% on the day. On the release front, British Manufacturing PMI slowed to 55.9, but still fell short of the forecast of 56.3 points. There was better news in the US, as ISM Manufacturing PMI accelerated to 60.8, beating the forecast of 57.9. This was the indicator’s highest level since April 2011. On Tuesday, the UK releases Construction PMI, which is expected at 51.2 points. As well, the BoE will release the minutes of the quarterly Financial Policy Committee meeting.
With investors keeping a nervous glance on the slow pace of the Brexit negotiations, any key British indicators which fall short of expectations could send the pound sharply lower. This was the case on Monday, as British Manufacturing PMI softened and missed the forecast. Although the reading of 55.9 indicates respectable expansion in the manufacturing sector, perception is key in the markets, and negative sentiment about the British economy could spell trouble for the pound.

Thursday, September 28, 2017

Societe Generale says

Societe Generale says at times when the U.S. dollar was falling this year, it is likely that the Chinese authorities were buying U.S. treasuries while buying EUR/USD at the same time to rebalance reserves. "That allowed USD/CNY to fall without the value of the yuan overall going up." SocGen therefore recommends buying EUR/USD, as well as emerging market currencies, if USD/CNY starts falling again. USD/CNY reached a one-month high of 6.6759 on Thursday. But since the beginning of the year, USD/CNY was on a downward path, falling to 6.44 in early September 8 from around 6.96 on Jan. 3

Friday, September 22, 2017

GBP/USD is down 0.5% at 1.3513.

GBP/USD is down 0.5% at 1.3513. Sterling is falling versus the U.S. below 1.35 to as low as 1.3489 because British Prime Minister Theresa May isn't giving much detail on how she sees the relationship between the U.K. and the EU after Brexit. Speaking in Florence, she did say that she doesn't see a deal similar to the one Canada has with the EU, or one similar to an European Economic Area membership. Mrs. May says she would want the U.K. to form its own type of deal with the EU. "Let us be creative," she says. This level of unpredictability is negative for the pound. However, sterling rebounded slightly once Mrs. May said there will be an implementation period of about two years, which gives more time for the U.K. and its currency to adjust to the new landscape.

Friday, September 8, 2017

Why Sterling's Fall Will Hurt

Why Sterling's Fall Will Hurt: The U.K. economy will perform better this year than expected. After that, the future's not so bright.
ECB Weighs Ending Stimulus as Fed Calibrates Its Easy Money Stance: The European Central Bank is likely to announce plans next month for phasing out the bond-buying program that has helped reinvigorate the eurozone economy, while the U.S. Federal Reserve is weighing how aggressively to retreat from its own easy money policies.
ECB Will Have Trouble Getting Out of Strong Euro Bind: The European Central Bank looks set to decide in October on how its bond-buying program will change in 2018. Looming over the proceedings is the surging euro.
France's Emmanuel Macron Takes EU Renewal Push to Greece: The European Union will crumble if it isn't overhauled, French President Emmanuel Macron said Thursday in Athens, attempting to reinvigorate his call for greater sharing of financial burdens in the eurozone.