Friday, January 16, 2015

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Thursday, January 15, 2015

EUR/USD continues to lose ground on Thursday

EUR/USD continues to lose ground on Thursday, as the pair trades at the 1.17 line in the European session. The euro slipped as low as 1.1580, its lowest level since November 2003. On the release front, Eurozone Trade Balance improved to EUR 20.0B, but this was short of expectations. Later in the day, the German Bundesbank President Jens Weidmann will deliver remarks in Berlin. It’s a busy day in the US, highlighted by Unemployment Claims. We’ll also get a look at PPI and the Philly Fed Manufacturing Index.
EUR/USD was flat in the Asian session. The pair has posted losses in the European session, breaking below resistance at 1.1734 and testing support at 1.1634.
1.1734 has switched to a resistance role as the pair has dropped to lower levels.
1.1634 is an immediate support role. EUR/USD is pointing to gains in short positions on Thursday, reversing the direction seen a day earlier. This is consistent with the pair’s movement, as the euro continues to post more losses. The ratio is showing a split between long and short open positions, indicative of a lack of trader bias towards where the pair is headed next.

Wednesday, January 14, 2015

EUR/USD Daily

 EUR/USD   Daily
13::40-GMT - Decent reversal underway with prices moving above the important res. at 1.1820. Next focus is the 1.1850/70 band. Sup.  should be higher now at 1.1765.  N.I.
R5: 1.1968 * 6 Jan high
R4: 1.1920  intraday level
R3: 1.1896 * 7 Jan high
R2: 1.1870  Mon high
R1: 1.1850/60  intraday level
S1: 1.1765  intraday level
S2: 1.1726  today low
S3: 1.1720 * projection
S4: 1.1700  figure
S5: 1.1640  2005 low

Monday, January 12, 2015

Gold has posted slight losses on Monday

Gold has posted slight losses on Monday, trading at the spot price of $1219.73 per ounce in the European session. Gold posted strong gains to end the week, as the metal trades comfortably above the key line of $1200. On the release front, the only data release out of the US is the Labor Conditions Market Index. As well, FOMC member Dennis Lockhart will deliver a speech in Atlanta.
XAU/USD posted gains in the Asian session. The pair has reversed directions in European trade and given up the earlier gains.
1215 is a weak support line. The round number of 1200 is next.
On the upside, 1240 an immediate resistance line. XAU/USD ratio is almost unchanged on Monday. This is not consistent with the pair’s movement, as gold has posted slight losses. The ratio remains a split between open and short positions, indicating a lack of trader bias as to what direction the pair will take next.

Friday, January 9, 2015

EUR/JPY Daily

 EUR/JPY   Daily
13::50 GMT - Small dip just traded has been recovered, making for a modest excess low/ a potential bottom marker this week. Run on   through 141.35/ the overnight high would boost that call. EUR otherwise risks fading again and remaining  on the week's sell offlow, with steep further downside to 137.50 or so. [NR]
R5: 148.42  15-Dec high
R4: 147.15~  fr 22-Dec highs
R3: 146.75 * 30-Dec high
R2: 145.30 * 2-Jan high
R1: 141.70~  Wed, Thurs highs
S1: 141.22 * 19-Sep high
S2: 140.50~   this week lows
S3: 137.62 * 31-Oct low
S4: 137.00 * 30-Oct low
S5: 135.15   23-Oct low

Wednesday, January 7, 2015

EUR/USD has posted slight losses on Wednesday

EUR/USD has posted slight losses on Wednesday trading in the mid-1.18 range. The euro has lost 150 points so far this week, as the common currency continues its move downward. On the release front, it’s a busy schedule in the Eurozone and in the US. Eurozone CPI disappointed with a decline of 0.2%. German data was positive, as Retail Sales jumped 1.0% and Unemployment Claims dropped by 27 thousand. In the US, today’s key releases are the ADP Nonfarm Payrolls and Trade Balance. As well, the Federal Reserve will release the minutes of its last policy meeting.

Eurozone inflation numbers remain mired at low levels. Eurozone CPI dipped to -0.2% in December, its first decline since September 2009. German Preliminary CPI remained stuck at 0.0% in December, unchanged from the November report. This missed the very modest estimate of 0.1%. The readings come at a crucial time, with the ECB holding a policy meeting on January 22. With the threat of deflation hanging over the Eurozone like a dark cloud, the ECB could respond with quantitative easing, which would mean buying large amounts of Eurozone bonds. QE worked well in the US, but the Federal Reserve was calling the shots and was able to implement and then taper QE as it pleased. It’s a far different story in Europe, as the powerful German Bundesbank has voiced its opposition to such a move and ECB head Mario Draghi will find it difficult to take such a dramatic step without a strong consensus. If the ECB does pull the ECB trigger, the shaky euro is likely to fall even further early in 2015.

Monday, January 5, 2015

USD/JPY

USD/JPY has started the first full week of 2015 with losses. Early in the North American session,  the pair trades just below the 120 line.  It’s a quiet start to the new trading week. In Japan Final Manufacturing PMI remained unchanged at 52.0 points. Monetary Base slipped to 34.3%. Over in the US, there is just one minor release on the schedule, Total Vehicle Sales. As well, FOMC Member John Williams will speak at an event in Boston. The US dollar has enjoyed broad gains against its major rivals, and the yen is no exception, as USD/JPY is trading close to the 120 line.
USD/JPY ratio is unchanged on Monday. This is not consistent with the pair’s movement, as the yen has posted slight gains. The ratio has a majority of long positions, indicative of trader bias towards the dollar posting gains.