GBP/USD Daily USD/JPY

 GBP/USD   Daily
13::10 GMT - After starting a bit higher today, the mkt. has leveled  off into a flat trade-still capped below the recent lows at  1.6750/60. Latter is res. followed by the 1.68 area. To the downside, very close sup. is at 1.6695/00 then 1.6654. N.I.
Despite broad interest rate cuts by the ECB in June, the Eurozone continues to limp along, including Germany, the region’s locomotive. Inflation and growth levels remain weak, as underscored by last week’s GBP and inflation releases. French Preliminary GDP remained flat at 0.0%, unchanged from a month earlier. German Preliminary GDP slipped to -0.2%, the first contraction in the German economy since Q4 of 2012. Eurozone Flash GDP also weakened to -0.2%, down from 0.0% in the previous release. All three GDP releases missed their estimates, and the weak numbers could push the euro even lower. On the inflation front, the news is not good, as deflation is a growing concern. Last week, Eurozone Final CPI dipped to 0.4%, down from 0.5% a month earlier. As well, German and French inflation numbers remained weak.

The US dollar has posted slight gains on Monday, as  trades in the mid-102 range late in the European session. On the release front, there is only one US release on Monday, NAHB Housing Market Index. The markets are not expecting any change from the previous release. Japan starts off the week with no releases on the schedule.
With the US continuing to suffer from low inflation levels, markets expectations have been low for key inflation indicators. On Friday, PPI, the primary gauge of inflation in the manufacturing sector, slipped to 0.1%, down from 0.4% a month earlier. This matched the estimate. Weak inflation is one reason why the Federal Reserve is in no rush to raise interest rates, as low inflation points to slack in the economy. On the manufacturing front, the Empire State Manufacturing Index plunged to 14.3 points, down from 23.6 points in the previous release. This marked a three-month low and was well of the estimate of 20.3 points.

AUD/USD

AUD/USD has edged higher on Thursday, as the pair trades in the low-0.93 range early in the North American session. On the release front, Australian MI Inflation Expectations dropped to 3.1% in July. In the US, Unemployment Claims climbed to 311 thousand, above expectations.
In the US, Unemployment Claims fell short of expectations. The indicator climbed to 311 thousand, marking a six-week high. The estimate stood at 307 thousand. Employment indicators are under the market microscope, as the strength of the labor market is one of the most important factors influencing the Federal Reserve regarding the timing of an interest rate hike. A rate increase is expected by mid-2015, but stronger economic data, especially on the employment front, could hasten a move by the Fed. Earlier in the week, JOLTS Job Openings hit its highest level in 13 years, although it too missed expectations.

Gold, USD/CAD and USD/MXN

Gold crossed above the $1300 level last week, climbing as high as $1322 on Friday. The precious metal has benefited as the crises in Ukraine and Iraq have worsened. The US has accused Russia of massing troops on its border with Ukraine, and tensions are high as the EU has slapped stronger sanctions on Russia, while Moscow has retaliated by banning many food imports from the West. In Iraq, Islamic State militants, who have captured large parts of Iraq, have attacked and displaced thousands of ethnic Kurds, which has resulted in a growing humanitarian crisis. US President Barak Obama has authorized air strikes against the militants in order to protect the Kurds and safeguard US interests. The situation in Iraq is volatile and could quickly destabilize even further. In Gaza, a 72-hour ceasefire is holding as negotiations between Israel and Hamas are being conducted in Cairo.

The Japanese yen is flat on Tuesday, as the pair trades slightly above the 102 line late in the European session. In economic news, today’s US highlight is JOLTS Job Openings, with the markets expecting a strong reading. In Japan, Revised Industrial Production posted a sharp decline of 3.4%, well short of expectations. Later in the day, we’ll get a look at GDP, one of the most important economic indicators, as well as the minutes of the last BOJ policy meeting.
Is the Japanese manufacturing sector in trouble? Japanese manufacturing indicators continue to post declines this week. Tertiary Industry Activity came in at -0.1%, short of the estimate of a 0.2% gain. Revised Industrial Production dropped 3.4% last month, its steepest fall since October 2012. Meanwhile, markets eyes on Japanese GDP, which will be released later on Tuesday. The markets are braced for a decline of 1.7%, in Q2, which would mark the first drop in economic activity since Q4 of 2012. Traders should be prepared for the yen to lose ground if GDP posts a weak reading.

 USD/CAD and USD/MXN are trading as a Nafta bloc as the Canadian dollar and Mexican peso take their cue from the greenback, says Camilla Sutton, chief currency strategist at Scotiabank. The pairs tend to trade in tandem when the US is the "epicenter," she says. "Right now, we have that because we have the improvement in U.S. data spurring a tremendous focus on the Fed and when they will start to enter a hiking cycle."

The Japanese yen

Capital markets continue to look for interest rate clues and the central bank in the pole position  the Bank of England (BoE)  could indicate a possible change to these seemingly uniform monetary policies. The pound is floundering just below 1.6800 level in quiet trade. Though there are no central bank rate announcements due, the market will get to hear from BoE Governor Mark Carney midweek. On Wednesday, the BoE will publish its forecasts for growth and inflation and investors will be focused on the timing for the U.K.’s first post-crisis rate hike. If the BoE happens to lower its expectation of slack in the U.K. economy it could be supportive of sterling.
The Japanese yen is listless on Monday, as the pair trades slightly above the 104 line in the European session. On the release front, Tertiary Industry Activity disappointed, coming in at -0.1% in July. Consumer Confidence showed little change, missing expectations. In the US, there are no economic releases to start off the week. The sole US event on Monday is a speech by Federal Reserve Governor Stanley Fischer, who will speak at a conference in Tokyo.
Japanese releases started off the week with disappointing numbers. Tertiary Industry Activity, an important manufacturing indicator, posted a decline of 0.1%, short of the estimate of a 0.2% gain. This weak reading was a sharp drop from the strong gain of 0.9% a month earlier. Elsewhere, Consumer Confidence came in at 41.5 points, short of the forecast of 42.3 points. The good news is that the indicator has moved upwards for three consecutive months. We’ll get a look at the BOJ minutes on Tuesday.

Trading Mistakes and Traps

As traders are taking any buy or sell areas  in markets, they make sure to know where price is with regard to the larger time frame supply  demand curve. Whether you trade Stocks, Futures, Forex, or Options, understand that behind all the candles on your screen in all these markets are people and their emotions. Most will fall for the emotional breakout trading traps while others will get paid from them. In short, instead of entering the market on the initial move higher or lower from a level, enter on the first pullback into the fresh supply or demand level. This is one of the most common mistakes many stock traders make and a very easy one to correct. The reason traders are concerned about this index is that it is comprised of small cap companies that generally do not have international risks for their business.  Without the world wide income, they are more responsive to changes in the United States economy and can be a better barometer for the make up of our US economy and markets.  When this index is not doing good, it is a bad sign for the stock market as a whole.

GBP/USD Daily

 GBP/USD   Daily
13::45 GMT - New reaction low at 1.6814 so far today before bounce.  Daily indicators are at their most oversold level in the last 18  months or so so we should see a recovery attempt soon. Next lower sup. is at 1.6785. Initial res. is at 1.6865/70 then at today's high at 1.6893.N.I.
R5: 1.7060~ * 23-Jul sell break
R4: 1.7   25, 28-Jul highs
R3: 1.696   25-Jul low
R2: 1.6926 * Thurs high
R1: 1.6893   today high
S1: 1.6814   today low
S2: 1.6785 * 12-Jun low
S3: 1.6740~   10, 11-Jun lows

Canadian dollar,USD/CAD

The Canadian dollar continues to travel south, as USD/CADÂ trades in the low-1.09 range on Friday. In the US, the markets will have plenty of data to sort through, with three key events later in the day – Nonfarm Employment Change, Unemployment Rate and ISM Manufacturing PMI. We’ll also get a look at consumer confidence levels, with the release of UoM Consumer Sentiment. There are no Canadian releases on Friday.
Although the US jobs report disappointed, it's not enough to stall the greenback's rally and the market is eyeing C$1.1000 as a key level on , says Blake Jespersen, managing director of foreign exchange at BMO Capital Markets. "I think we'll see a lot of hedging activity at 1.10. That seems to be where a lot of the Canadian exporters are targeting." First though, the pair will have to breach the C$1.0950 barrier. Jespersen says the "overwhelming theme" at the moment is to buy USD/CAD on dips. He pegs support for the pair at 1.0880. USD/CAD last at 1.0906, little changed from yesterday's close.